Today the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released statistics showing national existing home sales fell 8.4% nationally from May to June 2021, marking the third consecutive monthly decline. Over the same period, the number of newly listed properties fell 0.7%, and the MLS Home Price Index rose 0.9%, a marked deceleration from previous months.

Activity nonetheless remains historically high, but in contrast to March’s all-time record, it is now running closer to levels seen in the first half of 2020. While sales are now down a cumulative 25% from their peak, and below every other month in the last year, June transactions still managed to set a record for that month (see chart below).

For the second month in a row, sales were lower in every province. The steepest drops were in B.C. (-14.6% m/m) and the Atlantic provinces (down a combined 9.8% m/m). In Ontario, sales fell 9.0% m/m. They posted a much smaller 1.9% m/m drop in Quebec.

June’s decline was helped along by stricter stress test rules implemented at the beginning of the month. We expect these rules to continue to weigh on demand in the near term, although the amount of tightening this time around (+46 bps) pales in comparison to early 2018 (+220 bps), the last time the rules were changed.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in June 2021 was up 13.6% on a year-over-year basis.

“While there is still a lot of activity in many housing markets across Canada, things have noticeably calmed down in the last few months,” said Cliff Stevenson, Chair of CREA. “There remains a shortage of supply in many parts of the country, but at least there isn’t the same level of competition among buyers we were seeing a few months ago.”

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes edged back a slight 0.7% in June compared to May. In contrast to the past year’s synchronicity in demand and supply trends, the little-changed national new supply figure in June reflected a mixed bag of results, with about half of local markets seeing gains – welcome news for frustrated buyers.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio was 69.2% in June 2021, the lowest reading since last August. That said, the long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.6%, so it remains historically high; although, it has been steadily moderating since peaking at 90.8% back in January (see chart below).

Based on a comparison of sales-to-new listings ratio with long-term averages, more than half of all local markets were in balanced market territory in June, measured as being within one standard deviation of their long-term average. The was a significant shift compared to most of the past year which saw a majority of markets well into seller’s market territory.

There were 2.3 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of June 2021, up from 2.1 months in May and up from an all-time record-low of just 1.8 months in March. That said, it is still very much in sellers’ market territory. The long-term average for this measure is a little over 5 months.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) rose 0.9% month-over-month in June 2021, continuing the trend of decelerating month-over-month growth that began in March. That deceleration was initially seen more so on the single-family side; although, that trend is now also playing out in the townhome and apartment segments.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 24.4% on a year-over-year basis in June. Based on data back to 2005, this was another record year-over-year increase; although, given how price growth took off in July of last year, this June 2021 reading may end up being the peak for year-over-year growth.

Looking across the country, year-over-year price growth is averaging around 20% in B.C., though it is lower in Vancouver and higher in other parts of the province. Year-over-year price gains in the 10% range were recorded in Alberta and Saskatchewan, while gains are closer to 15% in Manitoba. Ontario is seeing an average year-over-year rate of price growth in the 30% range, however, as with B.C., gains are notably lower in the GTA and considerably higher in most other parts of the province. The opposite is true in Quebec, where Montreal is in the 25% range and Quebec City is in the 15% range. Price growth is running a little above 30% in New Brunswick, while Newfoundland and Labrador are in the 10% range.

Bottom Line

Since peaking in March, home sales are down 25% from the inferno levels early this year, but demand is still historically strong. Despite the steep pullback, seasonally adjusted sales are roughly 18% above pre-pandemic trends. When the economy opens fully and immigration resumes, the underlying fundamentals for housing demand will rise, especially as university students return to campus living, and adult children move into their own nests.

Sales activity will continue to gradually cool over the next year, but it will take higher interest rates to soften the housing market in a meaningful way.

Condo sales in markets such as Toronto and Vancouver have picked up from their pandemic lows in recent months. This is the polar opposite of what happened earlier in the pandemic, when sales of relatively expensive detached units dominated, raising average prices. Moving forward, if condos consume a rising share of the overall sales pie (perhaps through strong demand for these units, slowing sales of detached houses, or some combination of both), compositional effects could continue to weigh on average prices.

This article was published by Dr. Sherry Cooper, read the article on her website here.

Angela Calla is a 17-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. She is without a doubt, a true expert in her field. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. 

In August of 2020, at the young age of 37, Angela surpassed $1 Billion dollars in funded personal mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click  here to view the latest news on our blog. 

The Bank of Canada raised its inflation forecast in the newly released July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), making it one of the most hawkish central banks in the world. The Bank announced its third action to reduce its emergency bond-buying stimulus program by one-third. The central bank was among the first from the advanced economies to shift to a less expansionary policy last April when it accelerated the timetable for a possible interest-rate increase and pared back its bond purchases. In today’s press release, the Bank announced it would adjust its quantitative easing (QE) program again to a target pace of $2 billion per week of Government of Canada bond purchases–down $1 billion from its prior target of $3 billion per week. This puts upward pressure on bond yields, all other things constant. No doubt, the federal government’s funding of the enormous Covid-related budget deficits has been abetted by the central bank’s bond-buying.

The pace of purchases of Canadian government bonds was as high as $5 billion last year. The central bank acquired a net $320 billion of the securities since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. The bank owns about 44% of outstanding Canadian government bonds.

The Bank of Canada has said it wants to stop adding to its holdings of government bonds before it turns its attention to debating rate increases. Still, officials chose not to accelerate the projected timeline for a possible hike today.

In holding the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of .25%, the Governing Council reaffirmed its “extraordinary forward guidance” that the Canadian economy still has considerable excess capacity. The recovery continues to require extraordinary monetary policy support. “We remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved,” the central bank said in the policy statement. In the Bank’s July projection, this happens sometime in the second half of 2022.

Swaps trading suggests investors are fully pricing in a rate hike over the next 12 months and a total of four over the next two years, which would leave Canada with one of the highest policy rates among advanced economies. This puts the Bank of Canada ahead of the Fed in raising interest rates. Chair Powell told Congress today that the US economy isn’t ready for bond tapering. “Reaching the standard of ‘substantial further progress’ is still a ways off,” he said in prepared remarks. In the U.S., investors aren’t pricing in any rate hike over the next year and only two over the next two years.

July Monetary Policy Report

The Bank revised its forecast for Canadian GDP growth this year from 6.5% in the April MPR to 6.0% because of the more restrictive third-wave pandemic lockdown in the second quarter. Growth is now expected to pick up strongly in the third quarter of this year. Consumer confidence has returned to pre-pandemic levels, and a high share of the eligible population is vaccinated. As the economy reopens, consumption is expected to lead the rebound, increasing spending on services such as transportation, recreation, and food and accommodation.

Housing resales have moderated from historically high levels but remain elevated (Chart below). Other areas of housing activity—such as new construction and renovation—remain strong, supported by high disposable incomes, low borrowing rates and the pandemic-related desire for more living space.

CPI Inflation Boosted By Temporary Factors

The Bank revised up its inflation forecast for this year but asserted once again that inflation would return to 2% in 2022. This is a controversial call consistent with central-bank mantras around the world. The BoC said, “Three sets of factors are leading to this temporary strength. First, gasoline prices have risen from very low levels a year ago and are above their pre-pandemic levels, lifting inflation. Second, other prices that had fallen last year with plummeting demand are now recovering with the reopening of the economy and the release of pent-up demand. Third, supply constraints, including shipping bottlenecks and the global shortage of semiconductors, are pushing up the prices of goods such as motor vehicles.

The BoC expects CPI inflation to ease by the start of 2022 as the temporary factors related to the pandemic fade. Economic slack becomes the primary factor influencing the projection for inflation dynamics thereafter. The uncertainty around the outlook for the output gap and inflation remains high. Because of this, the estimated timing for when slack is absorbed is highly imprecise. In the projection, this occurs sometime in the second half of 2022. After declining to 2% during 2022, inflation is expected to rise modestly in 2023 as the economy moves into excess demand. The excess demand and resultant increase in inflation to above target are expected to be temporary. They are a consequence of Governing Council’s commitment to keeping the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved.

Inflation is expected to return toward the target in 2024. The projection is consistent with medium- and long-term inflation expectations remaining well-anchored at the 2% target. Both businesses and consumers view price pressures as elevated in the near term. A large majority of respondents to the summer 2021 Business Outlook Survey now expect inflation to be above 2% on average over the next two years. Nonetheless, firms view higher commodity prices, supply chain bottlenecks, policy stimulus and the release of pent-up demand as largely temporary factors boosting inflation higher in the near term.

Bottom Line

Only time will tell if the Bank of Canada is correct in believing that inflation pressures are temporary. Financial markets will remain sensitive to incoming data, but for now, bond markets seem willing to accept their view. The 5-year GoC bond yield has edged down from its recent peak of 1.0% posted on June 28th to a current level of .936%. As well, the Canadian dollar has weakened a bit, to US$0.7993, since the release this morning of the BoC policy statement. The loonie, however, remains among the strongest currencies this year vis a vis the US dollar.

Read the original article published by Dr. Sherry Cooper here on her website.

Angela Calla is a 17-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. She is without a doubt, a true expert in her field. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. 

In August of 2020, at the young age of 37, Angela surpassed $1 Billion dollars in funded personal mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click  here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Article written by Jessy Bains – can be viewed here

The gap between variable and fixed-rate mortgages has widened (Photo by Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images)

Low rates have helped fuel the real estate rally and today, Ratehub.ca says the best 5-year variable rate on its site dropped to 0.98 per cent, which it says is the lowest 5-year variable-rate mortgage in Canadian history.

The rate is available through the site’s in-house lender CanWise Financial and is open to homebuyers with less than 20 per cent for a downpayment, or those that had less than 20 per cent down on renewal.

It comes with a 20 per cent prepayment option, 120-day rate hold, is portable and assumable, and the penalty to break is three months of interest.

“We are really excited to be able to offer the lowest rate in Canadian history because it will save our customers so much in interest,” said Ratehub.ca.

Today’s announcement means the gap between fixed and variable-rate mortgages has widened. Ratehub.ca says the best fixed-rate on its site is 1.74 per cent, which is 0.76 percentage point higher than the best variable rate.

The Bank of Canada embarked on a series of cuts to its key overnight rate to help the economy cope with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Ratehub.ca says Canada’s central bank would need to raise rates three times to bring this variable rate in line with the best fixed rates. It would have to keep going for the variable rate to be higher.

The overnight rate isn’t likely to be raised any time soon, as the Bank of Canada has been indicating and not until its inflation targets have been met.

“We remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In the Bank’s April projection, this happens sometime in the second half of 2022,” said the Bank of Canada in a release when it announced its most recent rate decision.

Ratehub.ca says a homeowner who puts down 10 per cent on a $500,000 home with today’s new 5-year variable rate amortized over 25 years ends up with a monthly mortgage payment of $1,744.

In the first year, that’s $20,927 of which $16,463 is principal and $4,464 is interest. Over the 5-year term, $104,633 is paid, of which $83,947 is principal and $20,686 is interest.

Angela Calla is a 17-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. She is without a doubt, a true expert in her field. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. 

In August of 2020, at the young age of 37, Angela surpassed $1 Billion dollars in funded personal mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click  here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Published by the Tri-Cities Chamber of Commerce 2021

The Government of British Columbia has just announced BC’s Restart Plan and outlined the road the recovery.

BC’s Restart – a four-step plan to bring BC back together will be a slow and gradual return to a more normal life, with safety and health protocols such as mask-wearing and physical distancing remaining in place and mandatory during the initial two steps of the plan.

The step-by-step plan will follow approximate timelines and will ease people and businesses slowly out of the pandemic.

Scroll down to find information on the following:

• Step 1 – May 25, 2021
• Step 2 – June 15, 2021
• Step 3 – Early June (Earliest Date: July 1)
• Step 4 – Early September (Earliest Date: September 7)

An overview of the four steps can be found below:

Click here to open image.

See the BC Government website for full details.

Step 1 – May 25, 2021

Step 1 begins on May 25, 2021, with at least 60% of the adult population having received Dose 1, along with stable COVID-19 case counts and COVID-19 hospitalizations.

PHO guidance under Step 1 is as follows:

• Physical distancing and masks continue to be required in public indoor settings.
• If you or anyone in your family feels sick stay home and get tested immediately.

Under Step 1, the following restrictions will be in place:

• Personal Gatherings
  • Maximum of five visitors or one household allowed for indoor personal gatherings.
  • Maximum of 10 people for outdoor personal gatherings.
• Outdoor Gatherings
  • Maximum of 10 people for seated indoor organized gatherings with safety protocols.
  • Maximum of 50 people for seated outdoor organized gatherings with safety protocols.
• Travel
  • Recreational travel only within travel region (travel restrictions extended).
  • Non-essential travel between regions continues to be restricted.
• Business
  • Indoor and outdoor dining for up to six people with safety protocols (not restricted to your household or bubble).
  • Liquor served until 10PM.
• Offices and Workplaces
  • Start gradual return to workplaces.
  • Employers must continue to have a COVID-19 Safety Plan and daily health check in place.
• Sports and Exercise
  • Indoor low-intensity group exercise allowed with limited capacity.
  • Outdoor games and practices for both adults and youth group/team sports allowed.
  • No spectators at any indoor or outdoor sports activities.

Step 2 – June 15, 2021 

Step 2 will begin when 65% or more of the adult population has received Dose 1, cases continue to decline, and COVID-19 hospitalizations are declining.

The earliest date for Step 2 is expected to be June 15, 2021.

PHO guidance under Step 2 is as follows:

• Physical distancing and masks continue to be required in public indoor settings
  If you or anyone in your family feels sick stay home and get tested immediately.

Under Step 2, the following restrictions will be in place:

• Personal Gatherings
  • Outdoor personal gatherings up to 50 people (birthday parties, backyard BBQs, block parties).
  • Playdates.
• Organized Gatherings
  • Indoor seated organized gatherings of up to 50 people with a COVID-19 Safety Plan.
• Travel
  • Provincial travel restrictions lifted.
  • Recreational travel within BC allowed.
  • BC Transit and BC Ferries offers increased service as needed.
• Business
  • Liquor served until midnight.
  • Banquet halls can operate with limited capacity and a COVID-19 Safety Plan
• Offices and Workplaces
  • Continued return to the workplace.
  • Small, in-person meetings allowed
• Sports and Exercise
  • Indoor high-intensity group exercise allowed with reduced capacity.
  • Indoor games and practices for both adults and youth group/team sports allowed.
  • No spectators at any indoor sports activities.
  • Outdoor spectators up to 50 allowed.

Consultation begins in Step 2 for the next steps regarding:

• Indoor and outdoor organized gatherings
• Easing restrictions for businesses

Step 3 – July 1, 2021

Step 3 will begin when 70% or more of the adult population has received Dose 1, cases are low, and COVID-19 hospitalizations are declining.

With British Columbians achieving nearly 80% adult Dose 1 vaccine coverage and COVID-19 case counts continuing to decline, the Province is safely moving to Step 3 of its four-step restart plan on July 1, 2021.

Moving to Step 3 will also signal the end to the longest provincial state of emergency in BC’s history, which will be lifted on June 30 at 11:59PM.

PHO guidance under Step 3 is as follows:

• Increased social contact
  If you or anyone in your family feels sick stay home and get tested immediately

Mask guidance under Step 3 is as follows:

• Masks are recommended in public indoor settings for all people 12 and older who are not yet fully vaccinated
  • Those who receive the vaccine are fully vaccinated 14 days after Dose 2
  • Some people may choose to continue to wear a mask after they’re fully vaccinated and that’s okay
• The mask mandate order under the Emergency Program Act will be lifted on July 1, and no proof of vaccination will be needed

As BC moves from Step 2 to Step 3, here are some of the new things that you can do:

• Personal Gatherings
  • Return to usual for indoor and outdoor personal gatherings
  • Sleepovers
• Organized Gatherings
  • Indoor organized gatherings 50 people or 50% capacity, whichever is greater
  • Outdoor organized gatherings 5,000 people or 50% capacity, whichever is greater
  • No capacity limits or restrictions on religious gatherings and worship services
  • Fairs, festivals and trade shows return to normal with a Communicable Disease Plan
• Travel
  • Canada-wide recreational travel.
• Business
  • Restaurants and Bars:
    • No group limits for indoor and outdoor dining, events allowed
    • Return to normal liquor service hours
    • No socializing between tables
  • Nightclubs:
    • Up to 10 people seated at tables, tables 2 m apart
    • No dancing, no socializing between tables
  • Casinos:
    • Reduced capacity
    • Gaming stations can operate at approximately 50% capacity
• Offices and Workplaces
  • Continued return to the workplace
  • Seminars and bigger meetings allowed
  • Additional safety precautions required in higher-risk workplaces
• Sports and Exercise
  • All indoor fitness classes allowed, normal capacity
  • Gyms and recreation facilities, normal capacity
  • Outdoor spectators 5,000 people or 50% capacity, whichever is greater
  • Indoor spectators 50 people or 50% capacity, whichever is greater

During Step 3, businesses, offices, and workplaces will gradually transition from a COVID-19 Safety Plan to a new Communicable Disease Plan, with guidelines for these plans released by WorkSafeBC. These guidelines were developed in consultation with public health and businesses will continue to be supported by WorkSafeBC and the PHO as they transition.

View the Communicational Disease Prevention Plan Guidelines released by WorkSafeBC here.

These plans will continue to include physical barriers in many business and retail settings. Capacity limits, formal health screening tests and directional arrows, as well as other physical distancing measures, will no longer be required. However, they may still be used during this transition period.

Step 4 – Early September (Earliest Date: September 7)

Step 4 will begin when more than 70% of the adult population has received Dose 1, cases are low and stable (contained clusters), and COVID-19 hospitalizations are low.

The earliest date for Step 4 is expected to be September 7, 2021.

PHO guidance under Step 4 is as follows:

• Masks in public indoor settings a personal choice
• Normal social contact
• If you or anyone in your family feels sick stay home and get tested immediately.

Under Step 4, the following restrictions will be in place:

• Personal Gatherings
  • Return to normal personal gatherings and social contact.
• Organized Gatherings
  • Increased capacity at large organized gatherings, like a concert.
• Travel
  • Canada-wide recreational travel.
• Business
  • Businesses will continue to operate based on the new COVID-19 safety guidelines and their updated COVID-19 Safety Plan.
• Offices and Workplaces
  • Workplaces fully reopened.
• Sports and Exercise
  • Return to normal sports competitions with an updated COVID-19 Safety Plan in place.
  • Increased outdoor and indoor spectators.

Angela Calla is a 17-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. She is without a doubt, a true expert in her field. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. 

In August of 2020, at the young age of 37, Angela surpassed $1 Billion dollars in funded personal mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click  here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Home prices may be astronomical in certain parts of the country, but historically low mortgage rates are allowing borrowers to pay off their mortgages faster than ever.

At today’s average rates, 61% of a new homebuyer’s very first mortgage payment is going towards principal repayment, according to data from Edge Realty Analytics.

In the early 2000s, that percentage was 26.5%. The change is even more drastic when looking back at the 1990s, where just 11.9% of a homebuyer’s first payment went towards paying down the principal, or the 1980s, when that percentage was a minuscule 4.6%.

The result is a much faster build-up of equity over a short period of time, so long as interest rates remain low.

After the first five years of mortgage payments, today’s homebuyers borrowing at today’s prevailing rates will have paid back more than a fifth of their mortgage (16.5%). Here’s a look at how that compares to past decades:

(Courtesy: Edge Realty Analytics)

“Homeownership represents a very aggressive forced saving program,” Mortgage Professionals Canada noted in its annual consumer report.

“As a result (and even before we consider the impact of price growth) housing equity is built very rapidly,” the report noted. “This excellent ‘net affordability’ goes a long way to explaining why homebuying activity has remained strong in Canada and why a large majority of Canadians see homeownership as financially better than renting, despite the rapid run–up in house prices and the higher burden of mortgage (principal plus interest) payments.”

(Source: Mortgage Professionals Canada)

Not only have low interest rates allowed borrowers to repay their mortgages more quickly, but it’s also kept housing moderately “affordable” despite the 38.4% run-up in average home price in the past 12 months.

“If it were not for the extremely low interest rate, most cities in Canada, especially Toronto, Ottawa, Vancouver and Montreal, would be in overvalued territory,” Alberta Central chief economist Charles St-Arnaud wrote in a recent analysis. “It means that the main driver for affordability is the record low level of interest rates.”

But Rates Won’t Stay Low Forever

All good things must come to an end, and that goes for ultra-low mortgage rates.

The Bank of Canada has made it abundantly clear that it expects to start raising interest rates by late next year.

How much rates will increase in the Bank’s next rate-hike cycle is anyone’s guess. But for what it’s worth, markets are pricing in at least eight 25-bps hikes over the next five years, which would bring Canada’s overnight rate to 2.25%, up two percentage points from its current record-low of 0.25%.

But even a more modest rise in rates of as little as 100-150 basis points could “push the valuation metrics into overvalued territory,” St-Arnaud noted, making today’s still somewhat “affordable” housing market patently unaffordable for most.

“Our simulations show that many cities in Canada will struggle with housing affordability as interest rates increase,” he added. “A 150-bps increase in mortgage rates could be enough to generate significant headwinds on some housing markets and house prices.”

Angela Calla is a 17-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. She is without a doubt, a true expert in her field. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. 

In August of 2020, at the young age of 37, Angela surpassed $1 Billion dollars in funded personal mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click  here to view the latest news on our blog. 

The Bank of Canada left the benchmark overnight policy rate unchanged at 0.25% and maintained its current pace of GoC bond purchases at its current pace. The Governing Council renewed its pledge to refrain from raising rates until the damage from the pandemic is fully repaired. The $3 billion weekly pace of bond-buying–known as quantitative easing–will decline as the recovery proceeds. In April, at their last meeting, the Bank reduced the pace of GoC bond buying from $4 billion to $3 billion per week. The central bank was among the first from advanced economies to shift to a less expansionary policy in April when it accelerated the timetable for a possible interest-rate increase and pared back its bond purchases.

The Bank’s view regarding the domestic economy appears to be little changed despite the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) overestimating Q1 GDP growth by 1.4 percentage points. Indeed, today’s Policy Statement notes that Q1 GDP growth was “a robust 5.6 percent” and that the details of the report point to “rising confidence and resilient demand.” Concerning Q2, the third wave lockdowns are “dampening economic activity…largely as anticipated.” Note that the April MPR projected 3.5% growth in Q2 GDP, while the consensus forecast currently sits at 0% for Q2, with downside risk.

The Bank also noted that “Recent jobs data show that workers in contact-sensitive sectors have once again been most affected. The employment rate remains well below its pre-pandemic level, with low-wage workers, youth and women continuing to bear the brunt of job losses.” The chart below shows that the labour market is still below the Bank’s target for a full recovery.

Bank of Canada Upbeat Over the Medium Term

“With vaccinations proceeding at a faster pace, and provincial containment restrictions on an easing path over the summer, the Canadian economy is expected to rebound strongly, led by consumer spending. Housing market activity is expected to moderate but remain elevated.”

On the inflation front, there were no surprises. The Statement says that inflation has risen to the top of the 1-3% control range due to base effects and gasoline prices. The rise in the core measures is blamed on temporary factors as well. The Bank anticipates headline inflation will stay around 3% through the summer before pulling back later in the year. On the cautious side, the BoC highlights that the labour market still has a way to go before healing. There’s also uncertainty surrounding COVID variants.

The concluding paragraph didn’t change much. It reiterates that there “remains considerable excess capacity” and that policy rates will stay at the lower bound until “economic slack is absorbed,” which the April MPR said was in 2022H2. Concerning further tapering, the “assessment of the strength and durability of the recovery” will guide that decision.

The C$ barely garnered a mention yet again, with the Statement noting the recent gains and accompanying rise in commodity prices. The market might view the lack of concern here as a green light for further strength.

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada is looking through “transitory” ups in inflation and downs in GDP. With vaccination rates continuing to ramp up significantly, and provinces beginning a gradual reopening process, the economy will rebound substantially beginning in June.

Indeed, with the near-term growth outlook increasingly bright, concerns have shifted to rising production input prices and the prospect for a sharp recovery in consumer demand to stoke inflation pressures. For now, the BoC is positing that near-term increases in consumer price growth rates will prove ‘transitory.’ But there have also been signs of harder-to-dismiss firming in most measures of underlying price growth gauges, including the BoC’s own preferred core measures edging up towards or above the 2% inflation target.

July’s meeting will likely be a bit more interesting with the Bank issuing more details in another Monetary Policy Report. We don’t see any need for dramatic forecast revisions at this stage, and the BoC’s guidance that rates might have to start increasing in the second half of next year remains appropriate. It looks like the main question will be around further tapering of the BoC’s asset purchases. The BoC didn’t signal an imminent taper (we didn’t think it would) but said decisions regarding the pace of purchases would be guided by its assessment of the strength and durability of the recovery. If incoming data aligns with the BoC’s forecasts, we could see it reduce weekly bond-buying again in July to $2 billion per week from $3 billion. If not, September might serve as a backup as the bank seeks to prevent its footprint in the bond market (nearly 44% at the end of May) from becoming too large while at the same time setting itself up to shift QE to reinvestment only well in advance of the first interest rate hike.

Angela Calla is a 17-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. She is without a doubt, a true expert in her field. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. 

In August of 2020, at the young age of 37, Angela surpassed $1 Billion dollars in funded personal mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click  here to view the latest news on our blog. 

This morning’s Stats Canada release showed that the economy grew at a 5.6% annualized rate in the first quarter, after a revised 9.3% pace in the final quarter of last year. That was somewhat below economists’ expectations. Housing investment grew at an annualized 43% pace, by far the biggest impetus of the expansion. Residential investment now makes up a record proportion of GDP (see chart below). Compared with the first quarter of 2020, housing investment was up 26.5% and led the recovery. Growth in housing was attributable to an improved job market, higher compensation of employees, and low mortgage rates. After adding $63.6 billion of residential mortgage debt in the last half of 2020, households added $29.6 billion more in the first quarter of 2021.

Residential investment is a component of the Gross Domestic Product accounts and is technically called ‘gross fixed capital formation in residential structures’ by Statistics Canada. Investment in residential structures is comprised of three components: 1) new construction, 2) renovations and 3) ownership transfer costs. The first two components are obvious.

The home-resale market’s contribution to economic activity is reflected in ‘ownership transfer costs.’ These costs are as follows:

• real estate commissions–including realtors and mortgage brokerage fees;
• land transfer taxes;
• legal costs (fees paid to notaries, surveyors, experts etc.); and
• file review costs (inspection and surveying).

The second chart below shows the quarterly percent change in the components of housing investment in inflation-adjusted terms. This chart illustrates the surge in existing home sales since the second quarter of last year (reflected in the red bar). Although the resale market has slowed since the third quarter of last year, it remains a driving force of economic expansion.

Growth in housing investment was broad-based. New construction rose 8.7% (quarter-over-quarter), largely driven by detached units in Ontario and Quebec. Ownership transfer costs increased 13.1%, with the rise in resale activities. Working from home and extra savings from reduced travel heightened the demand for, and scope of, home renovations, which grew 7.0% in the first quarter.

The increase in GDP in the first quarter of 2021 reflected the continued strength of the economy, influenced by favourable mortgage rates, continued government transfers to households and businesses, and an improved labour market. These factors boosted the demand for housing investment while rising input costs heightened construction costs.

The GDP implicit price index, which reflects the overall price of domestically produced goods and services, rose 2.9% in the first quarter, driven by higher prices for construction materials and energy used in Canada and exported. The sharp increase in prices boosted nominal GDP (+4.3%). Compensation of employees rose 2.1%, led by construction and information and cultural industries, and surpassed the pre-pandemic level recorded at the end of 2019.

Strength in oil and gas extraction, manufacturing of petroleum products, and construction industries led to a higher gross operating surplus for non-financial corporations (+11.5%). Higher earnings from commissions and fees bolstered the operating surplus of financial corporations (+3.9%), coinciding with the sizeable increases in the value and volume of stocks traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX).

Most aspects of final sales were solid in Q1, with consumers a bit stronger than expected (2.8% a.r.), government adding (5.8%), and net exports also contributing. In contrast, business investment was one real source of disappointment, with equipment spending surprisingly falling. But the biggest drag came from a drop in inventories, with this factor alone cutting growth 1.4 ppts in Q1, and versus expectations, it could add a touch. The good news is that this should reverse in Q2, supporting activity in the current quarter.

On the monthly figures, there were few big surprises. March’s initial flash estimate of +0.9% was nudged up in the official estimate to +1.1% as the economy began to re-open from the second wave. Tougher COVID public health rules slammed the brakes on Canada’s economy in April. Statistics Canada estimates gross domestic product shrank 0.8% in the month, representing the first contraction in a year and a weak handoff heading into the second quarter. April may well be followed by a soft May. Even so, we still expect a strong June will keep Q2 roughly flat overall and look for robust Q3 growth.

Bottom Line

In many respects, Q1 data is ancient history. We know with the resurgence in lockdowns, growth in Q3 will at best be flat. In the hopes that vaccinations will accelerate and COVID case numbers will continue to fall across the country, Q4 will likely see a strong resurgence in growth.

Click here to read this article on Dr. Sherry Cooper’s website. 

Angela Calla is a 17-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. She is without a doubt, a true expert in her field. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. 

In August of 2020, at the young age of 37, Angela surpassed $1 Billion dollars in funded personal mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click  here to view the latest news on our blog. 

To gesture our appreciation to our First Responders across the country we created a program specifically for them! The First Responder Mortgage Program™ is our way of saying THANK YOU.

Who is Eligible: The First Responder Mortgage Program™ is open to the following individuals:

• Police Officers
• Paramedics
• Firefighters (employed and volunteering)
• Correctional Services
• Border Services
• Search & Rescue (employed and volunteers)
• Registered Physicians
• Registered Nurses

What You Can Expect: From purchasing a home or switching from a current mortgage provider, the Dominion Lending centers ® First Responder Mortgage Program™ is focused on providing you with the best available mortgage options, including:

Angela Calla is a 17-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. She is without a doubt, a true expert in her field. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. 

In August of 2020, at the young age of 37, Angela surpassed $1 Billion dollars in funded personal mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click  here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Further to the original announcement in early April, the new mortgage stress test released on June 1^st has officially increased for home purchases and those looking to refinance. This has caused a decrease in their borrowing power by about 5%.

To put this in perspective, if they were approved for 1 million dollars, that is reduced to approx. 950k. You can download our app to see how this will impact you.

Some points to keep in mind about the new mortgage stress test:

• Rates are still near record lows, and these new changes do not increase your borrowing cost.
• All lenders have different sources of income they will utilize to help you qualify for the mortgage that is right for you. We have seen lenders step up in many different ways, and most recently with a special first responders program.
• As an unbiased mortgage broker, we protect your credit by reviewing all the options by all the lenders in the country to find a mortgage to suit your needs with the best value for you, that are only available to us as licensed professionals

If you or someone you care about with like a mortgage review to ensure you have the best option for you, we are here to help and just an email away callateam@countoncalla.ca.

Watch my segment on the new mortgage stress test with Global News here:

Angela Calla is a 17-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. She is without a doubt, a true expert in her field. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. 

In August of 2020, at the young age of 37, Angela surpassed $1 Billion dollars in funded personal mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click  here to view the latest news on our blog.