Navigating the New Capital Gains Tax: What Stock Holders and Real Estate Investors Need to Know

General Angela Calla 19 Apr

The landscape for investors, both in stocks and real estate, is evolving rapidly. One of the key changes making headlines is the proposed new capital gains tax. While aimed at the wealthy, this tax reform is also set to impact the middle class. Understanding its implications and planning accordingly is crucial for investors.

For real estate investors, the new capital gains tax could significantly affect their investment strategies. Currently, when you sell a property that is not your primary residence, you are required to pay capital gains tax on the profit. The proposed changes could increase the tax rate, impacting the overall return on investment.

Given these changes, consulting with a team of professionals is more important than ever. A qualified team can help you navigate the complexities of real estate investment, from purchase to sale. They can provide guidance on tax implications, investment structures, and strategies to optimize your returns while minimizing your tax burden.

The proposed new capital gains tax is set to impact investors across the board. For real estate investors, understanding these changes and seeking professional advice is key. By working with a team of professionals, you can navigate these changes effectively and make informed investment decisions.

 

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Canada’s Banking Regulator Announcement

General Angela Calla 16 Apr

Canada’s banking regulator announces cap on banks’ mortgages to highly indebted borrowers

Canada’s banking regulator is capping the amount of highly leveraged loans in lenders’ residential mortgage portfolios.

Last month, The Globe and Mail was the first to report the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) had told banks they will have to limit the number of mortgages that exceed 4.5 times the borrower’s annual income, which is also known as a loan-to-income (LTI) ratio of 450 per cent.

In the new rules announced Friday, the regulator said that high household debt poses a risk to the “safety and soundness” of banks and the stability of the financial system.

“High LTI loans originated during the low interest rate time periods have created a long-term vulnerability to the Canadian financial system,” OSFI said. “OSFI’s LTI framework will help prevent a similar buildup of loans on books given to highly leveraged and indebted borrowers in the future.”

Residential mortgages portfolios ballooned as interest rates and prices soared, making Canadian homeowners among the most highly indebted globally.

The new income cap adds to existing mortgage qualification rules, including the federal stress test, which requires borrowers to be able to pay their mortgages if interest rates are two percentage points higher than the negotiated rate.

The measure applies to new mortgages in the bank’s overall portfolio, not to individual borrowers. By comparison, the stress test is applied to the borrower.

Even so, the limits will make it more difficult for some borrowers to get a large enough mortgage to purchase a property.

The number of highly leveraged borrowers has dropped since the COVID-19 pandemic’s real estate boom in early 2022. The amount of new mortgages with a LTI ratio above 450 per cent was 12 per cent in the last quarter of 2023, falling from 26 per cent in the first quarter of 2022, according to data from the Bank of Canada.

The new rule will only apply to new mortgages and not to existing loans or loans that come up for renewal. Banks will be allowed to exceed the income ratio for some clients, which could allow flexibility for borrowers in expensive cities such as Toronto and Vancouver.

In developing the LTI limits, OSFI sought feedback from the industry early last year on mortgage lending risks, and specifically debt serviceability. The regulator said that this approach also allows financial institutions to continue to compete in the market.

The limits apply to loans secured against a property, including a second mortgage from another lender and home equity lines of credit.

The new rule does not apply to insured loans for which the borrower must pay for mortgage insurance because their down payment is less than 20 per cent of the property’s purchase price.

OSFI will assess each bank’s loans above the 4.5 times threshold on a quarterly basis. The measure will take effect in the first quarter of next year.

(Article courtesy of The Globe and Mail – Canada’s banking regulator announces cap on banks’ mortgages to highly indebted borrowers – The Globe and Mail)

 

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Register Now for Our Mortgage Renewal Webinar!

General Angela Calla 16 Apr

As a part of our ongoing commitment to providing you with the best mortgage solutions and guidance, we are excited to invite you to an exclusive Mortgage Renewal Webinar hosted by the Angela Calla Mortgage Team.

Date: May 2nd, 2024
Platform: Zoom (Link will be sent the day before airing)

Renewing your mortgage is an important financial decision, and we understand that you may have questions and concerns. That’s why we’ve curated this webinar to cover essential topics to help you navigate the renewal process with confidence.

During the webinar, we’ll discuss:
• How to select the best lender for your needs
• Understanding the differences between various lenders and terms
• Unveiling the benefits of working with a mortgage broker
• Strategies to leverage future declining rates to your advantage
• Tips on how to manage debt and accelerate your journey up the property ladder

Our team will provide insights, answer your questions to ensure that you have all the information you need to make informed decisions about your mortgage renewal.

Don’t miss out on this valuable opportunity to empower yourself with knowledge and take control of your financial future.

Reserve your spot now by clicking the registration link below ( you will be sent the replay if you register and cant make the live):

Webinar Registration

Spaces are limited, so we encourage you to register early to secure your spot. Please also forward this to any loved ones looking for mortgage renewal guidance.

We look forward to seeing you at the webinar and assisting you with your mortgage renewal journey!

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Increase to RRSP Withdrawal Amounts, Payback and Amortization

General Angela Calla 11 Apr

The Canadian government will allow 30-year amortization periods on insured mortgages for first-time homebuyers purchasing newly built homes.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland made the announcement in Toronto today, saying it would take effect Aug. 1.

The Canadian Home Builders’ Association has advocated for longer amortization periods, saying five more years would help with affordability and spur more construction.

Freeland also said the government will nearly double — to $60,000 — the amount first-time homebuyers can withdraw from RRSPs to buy a home.

That’s up from $35,000, to take effect April 16, the day the federal budget is set to be released.

People who make such withdrawals between Jan. 1, 2022, and Dec. 31, 2025, are also getting more time to begin repayment — up to five years in total rather than two.

Learn more here: Putting home ownership back within reach and supporting Canadian homeowners – Canada.ca

Main take aways from this news…

1. **Expanded Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP):** The HBP withdrawal limit has been raised to $60,000, providing first-time buyers with more funds for a down payment.
2. **Extended Repayment Period:** With the longer amortization period and increased HBP limit, buyers have more flexibility in managing their finances.
3. **Financial Considerations:** Buyers should carefully evaluate their financial situation and consider the long-term implications of their mortgage and HBP choices.
4. **Consultation with Professionals:** It’s advisable for buyers to consult with mortgage advisors and financial planners to make informed decisions.

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

March’s Weak Jobs Report Sets The Stage For A June Rate Cut

General Angela Calla 9 Apr

Today’s StatsCanada Labour Force Survey for March is much weaker than expected. Employment fell by 2,200, and the employment rate declined for the sixth consecutive month to 61.4%.

Total hours worked in March were virtually unchanged but up 0.7% compared with 12 months earlier.

The details were similar to the headline: as full-time jobs dipped, total hours worked fell 0.3%, and only two provinces managed job growth. Among the type of worker, a 29k drop in self-employment was the primary source of weakness, while private sector jobs managed a decent 15k gain. The issue for the Bank of Canada is that wage gains are not softening even with a rising jobless rate. Average hourly wages actually nudged up to a 5.1% y/y pace, now more than two percentage points above headline inflation. With productivity barely moving, these 5% gains will feed into costs and threaten to keep inflation sticky.

The unemployment rate in Canada jumped to 6.1% in March of 2024 from 5.8% in the earlier month, the highest since October of 2021, and sharply above market expectations of 5.9%. The result aligned with the Bank of Canada’s rhetoric that higher interest rates have a more significant impact on the Canadian labour market, strengthening the argument for doves in the BoC’s Governing Council that a rate cut may be due by the second quarter. The unemployed population jumped by 60,000 to 1.260 million, with 65% searching for jobs for over one month. Unemployment rose to an over-seven-year high for the youth (12.6% vs 11.6% in February) and grew at a softer pace for the core-aged population (5.2% vs 5%).In March, fewer people were employed in accommodation and food services (-27,000; -2.4%), wholesale and retail trade (-23,000; -0.8%), and professional, scientific, and technical services (-20,000; -1.0%). Employment increased in four industries, led by health care and social assistance (+40,000; +1.5%).

Average hourly wages among employees rose 5.1% (+$1.69 to $34.81) year over year in March, following growth of 5.0% in February (not seasonally adjusted). This is still too high for the Bank of Canada’s comfort.

Bottom Line

The central bank meets again next Wednesday, and a rate cut is unlikely. I still expect rate cuts to begin at the following meeting in June. The Canadian economy, though resilient, will suffer from rising mortgage costs as many mortgages come under renewal over the next two years. Delinquency rates have already risen. Moreover, the planned reduction in temporary residents will also slow economic activity.

With the US jobs market still booming, it is likely the BoC will begin cutting rates before the Fed.

Article courtesy of Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

 

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Global News Morning – Your Guide to Smart Mortgage Renewal

General Angela Calla 9 Apr

As a trusted mortgage expert, I’m always looking for ways to help you make the most of your mortgage renewal. In this newsletter, I’m excited to share some valuable tips and insights that can help you navigate the renewal process with confidence and save thousands the 5 minute clip can be watched by clicking the image below.

  1. When to Start Shopping: It’s never too early to start shopping around for a better mortgage rate. Begin your search at least four months before your current mortgage term expires to allow enough time to explore your options.
  2. Understanding Different Lenders: Not all lenders are the same. Each lender offers different rates, terms, and conditions. It’s essential to compare offers from multiple lenders to ensure you’re getting the best deal.
  3. Prepayment Penalties: Before renewing your mortgage, it’s crucial to understand any prepayment penalties that may apply. These penalties can significantly impact your overall savings if you decide to pay off your mortgage early.
  4. Adjustable vs. Variable Rate Mortgages: Both adjustable and variable rate mortgages offer different benefits and risks. Understanding the differences between the two can help you choose the right option for your financial situation.
  5. Real-Life Example: Recently, we helped a local family avoid a costly mistake by advising them not to simply sign their renewal with their lender. By exploring other options, we were able to save them $1,200.00 each month, allowing them to move up the property ladder sooner than they thought possible.

I’m here to help you make informed decisions about your mortgage renewal. If you have any questions or would like to discuss your options further, please don’t hesitate to reach out directly by replying to this email.

Your financial well-being is my top priority.

 

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

2024 Canada Housing Market Report: Homebuyers Get Thrifty to Move up the Property Ladder

General Angela Calla 3 Apr

If there’s one word that could describe the Canadian real estate market in the past few years, it’s “rollercoaster.” First, 2020 and 2021 brought record-breaking home prices as the pandemic spurred Canadians to find a place to call their own. This demand, coupled with a low supply of homes for sale, led to an unprecedented run-up in home prices across the country.

This wild west of home buying ended in 2022 when rising interest rates led to a cooling of home prices across Canada. While higher interest rates meant the cost of a mortgage was higher, 2023 was the first year since the beginning of the pandemic that Canadian homebuyers could hope to purchase their homes in a buyer’s market and get the upper hand in their purchases.

Read the full article here:  2024 Canada Housing Market Report: Trends in Homebuying | Zolo

 

 

 

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Celebrating 20 Years of Excellence!

General Angela Calla 2 Apr

A heartfelt thank you to all our amazing clients and referral partners! As we mark our 20th year in the mortgage planning business, we’re deeply honored to have had the privilege of assisting you alongside our incredible team.

Last year, amidst the challenges of high inflation and mortgage rates, we stood by your side, committed to finding the best solutions for your needs. It’s with immense pride that we share the news of receiving a Master Award, a testament to our dedication and your trust.

As the market evolves, we remain steadfast in our commitment to guiding you through different markets and life changes. Our goal is to ensure you always have the best mortgage solutions tailored to your needs.

Looking for the best mortgage? Look no further! Reach out to us directly for personalized assistance. Here’s to many more years of partnership and success!

 

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

April 2024 Newsletter

General Angela Calla 2 Apr

Welcome to the April issue of my monthly newsletter!

Spring is here! To get you ready for the season, I have included some detailed information on what you can currently expect from the housing market, plus some small reno ideas that can have a BIG impact on your home!

In addition, enjoy Dr. Sherry Cooper’s economic insights around the latest interest rates and economic trends.

Get all the details below and have an amazing month!

2024 Spring Market Expectations

The spring housing market is just around the corner! Whether you’re looking to sell, buy, or want to ensure your mortgage is in order, knowing what to expect can help.

Here is the low down on what we are anticipating for various factors affecting the housing market this season:

  • Interest Rates: While the Bank of Canada held the overnight rate steady at 5% for the past five meetings, it is expected that they will make the first interest rate cut in June or July this year, followed by additional reductions in the overnight rate to a more manageable level as the year continues. Experts are predicting that The Bank of Canada rate could drop to 3.75% by the end of 2024.
  • Housing Prices: With interest rates expected to start coming down mid-year, that means more affordability and buyers in the market. As a result, it is expected that home prices will increase this year.
  • Market Inventory: According to the Canadian Real Estate Association, the number of new properties listed has edged up 1.5% month-over-month in January, with this expected to rise as the interest rates drop.?

Looking to buy? For those of you who may be looking to purchase a home this Spring, here are some things that can help you be prepared:

  • Get your finances ready by paying off as much of your debt as possible to improve your debt-to-income ratio and ensure you qualify for the best rate possible.
  • Obtain a mortgage pre-approval before starting your search. This helps you understand your budget and makes your offer more appealing to sellers.
  • Clearly define your priorities and preferences for a home. This will help streamline your search and make decisions more efficiently, especially as the market becomes more competitive.

First-time homeowner? Take advantage of first-time home buyer assistance if you have not been a homeowner in the past. You can find out more on the Government of Canada website here.

Looking to sell? If you want to sell your home this Spring, you will want to be ready to take advantage of the market! Some things you can do include:

  • The first step is to find a reliable real estate agent who can help you with pricing and listing your home for sale. Not sure who to call? I can provide some references!
  • Allow for open houses during evenings and weekends whenever possible to ensure you’re maximizing potential buyer foot traffic.
  • I have even more tips on decluttering and getting your home ready to sell below!

 

Want to renew or refinance? If you’re not looking to sell or buy this Spring, you may still be looking for mortgage advice or assistance with your home and finances. Now is a great time to make sure your mortgage is working for YOU! With so many renewals coming up this year, keep in mind there are several benefits to taking time to review your renewal before you sign:

  • Get a Better Rate: With interest rates expected to come down, taking time to reach out to me and shopping the market could help save you money!
  • Consolidate Debt: Renewal is a great time to take a look at your existing debt and determine whether or not you want to consolidate it onto your mortgage. In most cases, the interest rate on your mortgage is less than you would be charged with credit card companies or other forms of financing you may have.
  • Start on that Reno: Do you have projects around the house you’ve been dying to get started on? Renewal time is a great opportunity for you to look at utilizing some of your home equity to help with home renovations so you can finally have that dream kitchen and updated bathroom, or even utilize it to purchase a vacation property!
  • Change Your Mortgage Product: Are you not happy with your existing mortgage product? Perhaps you’re finding that your variable-rate or adjustable-rate mortgages are fluctuating too much and you want to lock in! Alternatively, you may want to switch to a variable as interest rates level out. You can also utilize your renewal time to take advantage of a different payment or amortization schedule to help pay off your mortgage faster!

No matter your plans for this month or the coming season, don’t hesitate to reach out to me for expert mortgage advice!

Small Home Improvements That Make a BIG Impact

Whether you’re looking to sell your home this year, or just want to make some updates, I have put together six small home improvements that can make a BIG impact on your space! From improving sale ability to refreshing your home, here are some simple and affordable ideas to help get you started:

  • Painting: One of the easiest ways to spruce up your home for a refreshed vibe or sale is to add a new coat of paint! While it is a relatively simple task for a new homeowner to take on, you might be surprised at how many people will pass on a house because they are not a fan of the paint colors or the flooring. A fresh coat of paint – especially more neutral colors such as beige, cream, light grays, and soft blues or greens – can do wonders to make a home feel appealing.
  • Light Fixtures: I don’t know about you, but I haven’t taken a good look at my light fixtures in a while. However, potential buyers will! Light fixtures are another low-cost and relatively easy improvement you can make to your home. Upgrading to newer styles and ensuring they are clean, with fresh LED bulbs, will help add an extra sparkle to your home!
  • Update Your Hardware: Another overlooked aspect of a home are light switches and door handles. If your home is 20 years old, most likely your white light switch covers are not so “white” and your door handles are a little worn down. These are a cheap and easy replacement that will go a long way to boost your interior!
  • Swap Out Your Window Coverings: Just like with a fresh coat of paint or new hardware, swapping out your window coverings is a small change that can make a big impact. Change your stale, white plastic blinds for wooden slats, or update your curtains to something fresh and vibrant!
  • Refinish Your Cabinets: The kitchen is known to be a central space in most homes, but did you know roughly 80% of homebuyers feel that it is the most important space to consider when deciding on a new home? While a full kitchen renovation may be out of the question and all-new kitchen cabinets can cost thousands, there is a third option. Refinishing or repainting your cabinets is a great alternative for breathing new life into your kitchen!
  • Curb Appeal: They say don’t judge a book by its cover but, when it comes to selling your home, first impressions matter. This is where curb appeal comes in! If a potential buyer pulls up to see overgrown weeds, clogged gutters, or cracked concrete, they are already going to have a negative impression of the home and it will be harder to impress them once they are inside. Attending to landscaping and any outside maintenance needs will go a long way in making your home more appealing. A pressure wash and a new coat of exterior paint can also do wonders to give your home a facelift!

By putting the effort into completing a few small changes around your home, you can reap big rewards when it comes time to sell – and increase your comfort in the interim!

 

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper

The Bank of Canada’s Governing Council was split on the timing of rate cuts this year when they deliberated before the March press release. But the February inflation data signaled that rate cuts should be coming soon. After all, inflation has slowed markedly along with the economy.

While the unprecedented influx of new immigrants has boosted economic activity, the overall outlook for consumer spending will be dampened by the large volume of mortgage renewals in the next two years. Many will suffer a double-digit monthly payment increase, undoubtedly dampening discretionary spending. High food prices already burden consumers. Even though food inflation has diminished, prices have not fallen.

 

A June rate cut is coming, and there is even a possibility of an easing in monetary policy at the April 10 meeting. The spring housing season will be buoyant. Home prices already began to rise in February. And while home sales have been weak, the sunshine might entice the pent-up supply of existing homes to the market. For every move-up and downsizing buyer, there is a new listing on the other side.

First-time homebuyers may also start to take the plunge for fear that prices will rise further. They can lock in a two- or three-year fixed-rate mortgage if they are nervous. Many have been saving their money since 2022.

The Alt-A market is also poised for a pick-up as many more alternative lenders have strong balance sheets and well-diversified portfolios and talk about creating a demand for Alt-A mortgage-backed bonds. These would be relatively high-yielding bonds with reasonable credit ratings owing to the diversity of mortgages from every province in Canada.

There will be challenges and intense competition with new digital lenders increasing for the first time in Canada—much delayed from the US market innovation. Mortgage brokers need to be experts in a much more comprehensive array of products and solutions, many of them new.

 

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Great News On The Inflation Front

General Angela Calla 22 Mar

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.8% year-over-year in February, down from the 2.9% January pace and much slower than the 3.1% expected rate. Gasoline prices rose in Canada for the first time in five months, which led many analysts to forecast a rise in February inflation as seen in the US. However, offsetting the increase in gas prices was a deceleration in the cost of cellular services, food purchased from stores, and Internet access services.

Excluding gasoline, the headline CPI slowed to a 2.9% year-over-year increase in February, down from 3.2% in January. Prices for rent and the mortgage interest cost index continued to apply upward pressure on the headline CPI.

On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.3% in February, the same as in January. The most significant contributors to the monthly increase were higher travel tours and gasoline prices.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.1% in February.

Prices for food purchased from stores continued to ease year over year in February (+2.4%) compared with January (+3.4%). Slower price growth was broad-based, with prices for fresh fruit (-2.6%), processed meat (-0.6%), and fish (-1.3%) declining. Other food preparations (+1.4%), preserved fruit and fruit preparations (+4.0%), cereal products (+1.7%), and dairy products (+0.6%) decelerated in February.

 

February was the first month since October 2021 that grocery prices increased slower than headline inflation. The slower price growth is partially attributable to a base-year effect, as food purchased from stores rose 0.7% month over month in February 2023 due to supply constraints amid unfavourable weather in growing regions and higher input costs.

While grocery price growth has been slowing, prices continue to increase and remain elevated. From February 2021 to February 2024, prices for food purchased from stores increased by 21.6%.

 

The Bank of Canada’s preferred core inflation measures, the trim and median core rates, exclude the more volatile price movements to assess the level of underlying inflation. The CPI trim slowed two ticks to 3.2% in February, and the median also declined two ticks to 3.1% from year-ago levels, as shown in the chart below.

Bottom Line

The next meeting of the Bank of Canada Governing Council is on April 10. Before then, we will see two more important data releases:

  1. The Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectation and;
  2. The Labour Force Survey for March.

Neither of these reports will likely derail the central bank’s move to cut interest rates by the June 10 meeting. Indeed, they could begin to cut rates at the April meeting. This would no doubt trigger a whopping Spring housing market, which is likely to be strong. There is significant pent-up demand for housing, and the prospect of home price increases could well move buyers off the sidelines if a surge in new listings comes to fruition.

The Canadian economy is particularly interest rate sensitive because of the vast volumes of mortgages that will be renewed in the next two years. Mortgage delinquency rates are already rising, so a gradual decline in interest rates is welcome news.

As the chart below shows, the three-month rolling average growth rates for the CPI trim and median core measures averaged 2.2% in February–their lowest reading in three years.

According to the Royal Bank economists, “Building on the January CPI report that was already showing broad-based easing in price pressures in Canada, the February report today reaffirmed those trends. Different measures of core inflation decelerated, and the diffusion index that measures the scope of inflation pressures also improved. That measure, however, was still showing slightly broader price pressures than pre-pandemic “norms”, suggesting there’s still room for more improvement.”

With the economy’s slow growth trajectory, the central bank has every reason to begin cutting interest rates soon.

 

(Article Courtesy of Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist, DLC)

 

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

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