Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady, But Pares Bond-Buying Program

General Angela Calla 22 Apr

Bank of Canada Scales Back Bond Buying

Today, the Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent. The Bank is also adjusting its bond-buying program from weekly net purchases of Government of Canada (GoC) bonds of $4 billion to $3 billion. This adjustment to the amount of incremental stimulus being added each week reflects the progress made in the economic recovery.

Finally, the Bank now suggests that the remaining slack in the economy could be fully absorbed by the second have of 2022–rather than 2023, suggesting that they may begin raising overnight interest rates before the end of next year. The Bank went on to aver that this timing is more uncertain than usual, however, given the uncertainty around potential output and the highly uneven impacts of the pandemic.

The Bank of Canada now believes that first-quarter growth in Canada is considerably stronger than they were expecting back in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). This partly reflects a better global backdrop, particularly in the United States. The US recovery is supported by a rapid rollout of vaccines and substantial fiscal stimulus, bringing spillover benefits to Canada through higher demand for exports and stronger commodity prices.

“But the most important factor in the unexpected economic strength has been the resilience and adaptability of Canadian households and businesses. Lockdowns through the second wave had much less economic impact than they did through the first wave. The economy bounced back quickly with the eased restrictions posting substantial job gains in February and March. The third wave is a new setback, and we can expect some of these job gains to be reversed. But the performance of the economy in recent months has increased our confidence in the underlying strength in the recovery.”

The Bank went on to say, “With the vaccine rollout progressing, we are expecting strong consumption-led growth in the second half of this year. Fiscal stimulus from the federal and provincial governments will also make an important contribution to growth. Strong growth in foreign demand and higher commodity prices are expected to drive a solid rebound in exports and business investment, leading to a more broad-based recovery. Overall, we now project that the economy will expand by around 6½ percent this year, slowing to about 3¾ percent in 2022 and 3¼ percent in 2023.

Over the next few months, inflation is expected to rise temporarily to around the top of the 1-3 percent inflation-control range. This is largely the result of base-year effects—year-over-year CPI inflation is higher because prices of some goods and services fell sharply at the start of the pandemic. Also, the increase in oil prices since December has driven gasoline prices above their pre-pandemic levels. The Bank expects CPI inflation to ease back toward 2 percent over the second half of 2021 as these base-year effects diminish, and inflation is expected to ease further because of the ongoing drag from excess capacity. As slack is absorbed, inflation should return to 2 percent on a sustained basis sometime in the second half of 2022.

BANK OF CANADA “FORCED” TO TAPER

When the pandemic first hit, the BoC bought government securities, providing liquidity to assure the full functioning of the market. As liquidity conditions in the Government of Canada (GoC) bond market improved, the primary objective of central bank bond purchases shifted toward a focus on monetary stimulus. The quantitative easing (QE) purchases of bonds continue to put downward pressure on borrowing rates, supporting economic activity. QE also reinforces monetary stimulus provided by the Bank’s forward guidance. This guidance has committed to holding the policy interest rate (the overnight rate) at its effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed, so the inflation target is sustainably achieved.

The Bank’s total ownership of GoC bonds outstanding has increased to about 42 percent. Since March 2020, the Bank has purchased more than 35 percent of total sovereign bonds outstanding, a higher percentage than other central banks (see chart below). Considering the size of Canada’s bond market and its economy, this means that the Bank has provided an extraordinary amount of stimulus. The Bank must continue to taper its purchases to ensure sufficient tradeable GoCs are available for longer-term institutional investors–such as insurance companies and pension funds–that must hold triple-A debt to offset their long-term liabilities.

BANK OF CANADA ASSESSMENT OF THE HOUSING MARKET

In today’s MPR, the Bank of Canada included an assessment of the drivers of the strength in Canadian housing:

  • Demand has been supported by relatively high disposable incomes and low mortgage rates.
  • While job losses have risen during the pandemic, they have been concentrated among low-wage earners who tend to rent their homes rather than buy them.
  • Remote work and more time spent at home have led to stronger demand for larger, single-family homes and housing in suburban and rural areas.
  • One implication of this shift in demand is a pickup in new housing construction in regions with fewer supply constraints, such as limited availability of land.
  • Over the past year, the pace of construction has been hampered by containment measures and shortages of materials and skilled workers. These factors are also putting upward pressure on construction costs.
  • Some potential sellers have been reluctant to show their homes during the pandemic.
  • Over time, supply is expected to adjust. A large number of building permits have been issued, with a growing share for single-family homes. Housing starts have also risen significantly in recent months, most notably in rural areas.

The Bank remains concerned about extrapolative expectations leading to overheated price increases and speculative activity (see chart below). They welcome the proposed changes to the Guideline B-20 by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions to help reduce these risks.

BOTTOM LINE

This was a significant BoC announcement, suggesting a turning point in their thinking. The worst of the pandemic is over, the economy has been remarkably resilient, and the Bank can now see the light at the end of the tunnel. That light is now expected in the second half of 2022, rather than 2023. Although the policy rate will remain at its effective lower bound until then, the central bank has already begun to pare back its GoC bond buying.

Some of the Bank’s optimism reflects the comparative strength of the US economy, which is way ahead of Canada’s vaccine distribution.* The spillover effects of that are meaningful in terms of Canadian exports. The fiscal stimulus evident in this week’s federal budget also provides a ballast for the economy. Although an estimated 425,000 people are still insufficiently employed and the third wave containment measures and vaccine rollout are unpredictable, the Bank is more confident now than any time in the past thirteen months that we will attain full-employment by late next year.

*As of April 20, nearly 25% of the US population has been fully vaccinated and 39% have received at least one vaccine. In comparison, as of April 20, only 2.5% of the Canadian population has been fully vaccinated and 25.4% have had one vaccine.

This article with published by Dr. Sherry Cooper, to view the article on Dominion Lending Centres, click here!


Angela Calla is a 16-year award-winning woman of influence and mortgage expert. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. She educates and empowers individuals on “The Mortgage Show”, and is the best selling author of The Mortgage Code where all proceeds are donated to the YWCA.

Angela is a magazine contributor, speaker, and recently collaborated to publish her third book, Pursuit:365. In August of 2020, Angela surpassed $1 Billion dollars in funded personal mortgage volume at the young age of 37 and was recently awarded the 2020 Business Leader of the Year Award. Angela leads by example with passion and conviction, known as an industry expert and go-to source for media and publishers across the Country.

For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or 604-802-3983.

 

Bank of Canada will hold current level of policy rate until inflation

General Angela Calla 21 Apr

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. The Bank continues to provide extraordinary forward guidance on the path for the overnight rate, reinforced and supplemented by the Bank’s quantitative easing (QE) program. Effective the week of April 26, weekly net purchases of Government of Canada bonds will be adjusted to a target of $3 billion. This adjustment to the amount of incremental stimulus being added each week reflects the progress made in the economic recovery.

The outlook has improved for both the global and Canadian economies. Activity has proven more resilient than expected in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the rollout of vaccines is progressing. A number of regions, including Canada, are experiencing a difficult third wave of infections and lockdowns. The more contagious variants of the virus are straining healthcare systems and affecting hard-to-distance activities, and have introduced a new dimension of uncertainty. The recovery remains highly dependent on the evolution of the pandemic and the pace of vaccinations.

Global economic growth is stronger than was forecast in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR), although the pace varies considerably across countries. After a contraction of 2 ½ percent in 2020, the Bank now projects global GDP to grow by just over 6 ¾ percent in 2021, about 4 percent in 2022, and almost 3 ½ percent in 2023. The recovery in the United States has been particularly strong, owing to fiscal stimulus and rapid vaccine rollouts. The global recovery has lifted commodity prices, including oil, contributing to the strength of the Canadian dollar.

In Canada, growth in the first quarter appears considerably stronger than the Bank’s January forecast, as households and companies adapted to the second wave and associated restrictions. Substantial job gains in February and March boosted employment. However, new lockdowns will pose another setback and the labour market remains difficult for many Canadians, especially low-wage workers, young people and women. As vaccines roll out and the economy reopens, consumption is expected to rebound strongly in the second half of this year and remain robust over the projection. Housing construction and resales are at historic highs, driven by the desire for more living space, low mortgage rates, and limited supply. The Bank will continue to monitor the potential risks associated with the rapid rise in house prices. Meanwhile, strong growth in foreign demand and higher commodity prices are expected to drive a robust recovery in exports and business investment. Additional federal and provincial fiscal stimulus will contribute importantly to growth. The Bank now forecasts real GDP growth of 6 ½ percent in 2021, moderating to around 3 ¾ percent in 2022 and 3 ¼ percent in 2023.

The Bank has revised up its estimate of potential output in light of greater resilience to the pandemic and accelerated digitalization. The virus and lockdowns have had very different impacts across sectors, businesses, and groups of workers, creating an unusual degree of uncertainty about the amount of slack in the economy and how long it will take to be absorbed. To gauge the evolution of slack, the Bank will look at a broad spectrum of indicators, including various measures of labour market conditions.

Over the next few months, inflation is expected to rise temporarily to around the top of the 1-3 percent inflation-control range. This is largely the result of base-year effects—year-over-year CPI inflation is higher because prices of some goods and services fell sharply at the start of the pandemic. In addition, the increase in oil prices since December has driven gasoline prices above their pre-pandemic levels. The Bank expects CPI inflation to ease back toward 2 percent over the second half of 2021 as these base-year effects diminish, and inflation is expected to ease further because of the ongoing drag from excess capacity. As slack is absorbed, inflation should return to 2 per cent on a sustained basis some time in the second half of 2022.

Even as economic prospects improve, the Governing Council judges that there is still considerable excess capacity, and the recovery continues to require extraordinary monetary policy support. We remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. Based on the Bank’s latest projection, this is now expected to happen some time in the second half of 2022. The Bank is continuing its QE program to reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve. Decisions regarding further adjustments to the pace of net purchases will be guided by Governing Council’s ongoing assessment of the strength and durability of the recovery. We will continue to provide the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.

This article was written and released by the Bank of Canada. To view the article on the Bank of Canada website, click here. 


Angela Calla is a 16-year award-winning woman of influence and mortgage expert. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. She educates and empowers individuals on “The Mortgage Show”, and is the best selling author of The Mortgage Code where all proceeds are donated to the YWCA.

Angela is a magazine contributor, speaker, and recently collaborated to publish her third book, Pursuit:365. In August of 2020, Angela surpassed $1 Billion dollars in funded personal mortgage volume at the young age of 37 and was recently awarded the 2020 Business Leader of the Year Award. Angela leads by example with passion and conviction, known as an industry expert and go-to source for media and publishers across the Country.

For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or 604-802-3983.

Team Banner Rates

Reverse Mortgages

General Angela Calla 20 Apr

Reverse mortgages are continuing to gain popularity for homeowners above the age of 55 in Canada! For Canadians looking to retire, high debt, ongoing expenses, as well as a reduced income can be a challenge.

This is where reverse mortgages can help! It is a NON taxable event meaning there is no risk of pension claw back.

This product is also a great option for,
  • Anyone wanting to assist their elderly parents
  • Navigating divorce
  • People wanting to help their kids secure a future down payment or wedding costs
  • Buying a second home
  • Buying your downsized home well before selling generating more income for your family
  • Help with end of life comfort
  • Longer lasting investments
  • Keeping the property in your estates

The goal of the reverse mortgage is to allow Canadians over 55 years to tap into the equity of their home which would assist in comfortable financial living.

However, with a reverse mortgage, borrowers are not required to make regular payments. This allows them a considerable inflow of cash without having to pay off what they owe! This means that the only time payment will be required is when you sell or move out of your home.

Furthermore, reverse mortgages are designed to allow one to access up to 55% of one’s home’s equity allowing the equity to turn into cash. This can be done as either a one-time lump sum payment or in the form of monthly payouts, or a combination of both.

Reverse mortgages have additional benefits beyond what we have discussed!
    • No monthly mortgage payments
    • No income or credit qualifications
    • Very low / little paperwork required
    • Title and ownership of property remain in homeowner’s name
    • Flexible options to break the term early if needed or even the option to FULLY open if buying before selling
    • Penalty waived in the event of death or care home placement to preserve the estate

Angela Calla is a 16-year award-winning woman of influence and mortgage expert. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. She educates and empowers individuals on “The Mortgage Show”, and is the best selling author of The Mortgage Code where all proceeds are donated to the YWCA.

Angela is a magazine contributor, speaker, and recently collaborated to publish her third book, Pursuit:365. In August of 2020, Angela surpassed $1 Billion dollars in funded personal mortgage volume at the young age of 37 and was recently awarded the 2020 Business Leader of the Year Award. Angela leads by example with passion and conviction, known as an industry expert and go-to source for media and publishers across the Country.

For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or 604-802-3983.

Housing Market: Can it continue like this?

General Angela Calla 16 Apr

Can the current housing market continue even with the impact of Covid-19? Absolutely, but we must address one key issue.

Canada currently has a major deficit in housing with the country needing an additional 150,000 homes. The large influx of immigrants is proving to be a bit challenging for builders. Can the current housing market continue like this?

The general consensus suggests that increasing down payments will help the market. However, without physical housing increased down payments will not be as effective. Perhaps then, it is the process that needs to be changed or enhanced. Canadian builders spend too much time handling different processes to secure approvals on building. Thus, hinders the capability of building homes at a timely rate. In other words, if we can decrease the time it takes for builders to secure approvals, then we might be able to meet the increasing demand for housing.

Will the market continue to be strong?

To answer this question, we look towards the Banks. Most banks will anticipate the market by changing certain programs. Currently, we can see that self employed programs are being revisited and enhanced by banks. In addition to the banks, Canadian insurers also offer good insight on the strength of the market. Insurance policies and programs will also often change when the market starts to show some strength.

Both of these examples highlight the confidence seen in the Canadian consumer ability. This confirms the speculation of a strong market since the banks are anticipating the continued growth of the market. According to the President of Residential Lending at one of our major Canadian banks, during the Covid-19 pandemic, 80% of Canadians had actually built wealth. There is currently 200 Billion Dollars sitting in Canadian Chequing accounts.


Angela Calla is a 17-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. She is without a doubt, a true expert in her field. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. 

In August of 2020, at the young age of 37, Angela surpassed $1 Billion dollars in funded personal mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click  here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Team Banner housing market

 

Mortgage Stress Test Changes Likely Upcoming May 24th

General Angela Calla 9 Apr

Mortgage Market Stress Test 

OSFI, our Federal regulator, has announced in efforts to “cool” the mortgage market they would like the 6 big banks to increase the qualifying rate from the current 4.79, to a minimum of 5.25 or 200 basis point above the “contract rate”.

Read the full release here from our economist Dr. Sherry Cooper.

This is an increase of 46 basis points and will DECREASE your purchasing power by approx. 5%, unless you complete funding before May 24th.

If you or a loved one have a mortgage pre-approval or purchase of a pre-sale in place, we recommend that you review your qualifications to ensure you can still purchase as intended.

Who this impacts:

  1. Yes it’s true, this impacts the middle class the most and those who put more money down. This does not feel like a solution to fix the intended problem of cooling the mortgage market, as it doesn’t address the supply of real estate in deficit, which requires regional solutions.
  2. All cash offers being submitted that are not really ALL cash and require financing or the sale of a property.

The fact that during a global pandemic, the default rates on mortgages went down, Canadians worked even harder and paid their mortgages!

There will be much more clarity on the mortgage market in the upcoming weeks.

Perhaps even a shift or reduction in this consideration! However its crucial to be prepared so you or a loved one don’t get caught up in this timing. We are here to advocate for and assist you with the best mortgage to build and protect your wealth.

If you or a loved one has a question on reviewing their existing mortgage that is approaching renewal, accessing equity to pay off high interest debt, or planning a purchase, call us at 604-802-3983. We are here to help guide you through every market transition.


Angela Calla is a 17-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. She is without a doubt, a true expert in her field. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. 

In August of 2020, at the young age of 37, Angela surpassed $1 Billion dollars in funded personal mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click  here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Team Banner mortgage market

Banking Regulator Aims To Make It Tougher To Get An Uninsured Mortgage

General Angela Calla 9 Apr

OSFI Considers Setting a Minimum Qualifying Rate of 5.25% For Uninsured Mortgages

With several Big-Five bank CEOs calling for regulatory action to slow the red-hot housing market, it didn’t take long for the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), the governor of federally regulated financial institutions, to respond. In a news release issued today, OSFI proposed an increase in uninsured mortgages’ qualifying rate to the higher of the mortgage contract rate plus 200 basis points or 5.25% as a minimum floor.

Based on posted rates of the country’s six largest lenders, the current threshold is at 4.79%. Before the pandemic, the posted rate was widely considered too high relative to much lower contract rates. Remember, Canada’s six largest lenders under OSFI’s jurisdiction set the posted rate each week when they submit to the Bank of Canada the so-called ‘conventional 5-year mortgage rate’. It has increasingly born little relationship to actual contract rates.

OSFI, once again, shows itself to cozy up to the Canadian banking oligopoly. Keep in mind that delinquency rates on the Canadian banks’ mortgage books are very low–both in historical terms and compared with financial institutions in the rest of the world. OSFI couched this proposal in terms of “the importance of sound mortgage underwriting.”

In the release, OSFI said, “the minimum qualifying rate adds a margin of safety that ensures borrowers will have the ability to make mortgage payments in the event of a change in circumstances, such as the reduction of income or a rise in mortgage interest rates. As mortgages are one of the largest exposures that most banks carry, ensuring that borrowers can repay their loans strongly contributes to the continued safety and soundness of Canada’s financial system.”

The comment period ends on May 7. OSFI reported that they would communicate the revised B-20 Guideline by May 24, with an implementation date of June 1, 2021.

This all but ensures that the current boom in home buying will accelerate further in the spring market–providing an impetus for borrowers to get in under the June 1 deadline. OSFI’s move will trigger an even hotter spring housing market as demand is pulled forward just as it was before the January 1, 2018 implementation date of the current B-20 ruling.

This will not impact non-federally regulated FI’s such as credit unions, mono-lines and private lenders, nor does it immediately impact insured-mortgage borrowers.

The federal government is in charge of mortgage qualification for insured mortgages. CMHC and the finance department could well follow OSFI’s lead in tightening qualifying rules for insured loans.

Bottom Line: Qualifying Rate

It is noteworthy to remember that on January 24, 2020, OSFI indicated that it was reviewing the benchmark rate (or floor) used for qualifying uninsured mortgages. At that time, the thought was that the widening gap between the posted rate and the contract mortgage rate was too large and that OSFI and the Bank of Canada would publish a mortgage rate weekly that would better reflect the contract rates. The new qualifying rate would be that contract mortgage rate plus 200 basis points. This consultation was suspended on March 13, 2020, in response to challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic.

To find more information about this topic and other related events, find the article here on Dominion Lending Centres


Angela Calla is a 17-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. She is without a doubt, a true expert in her field. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. 

In August of 2020, at the young age of 37, Angela surpassed $1 Billion dollars in funded personal mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click  here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Team Banner qualifying rate