Bank of Canada Hikes Policy Rate by 25 BPS, and Sustains Current Bond Holdings

General Angela Calla 2 Mar

Bank of Canada Starts Hiking Rates, Signalling More To Come

The Governing Council of the Bank of Canada raised the overnight policy rate target by a quarter percentage point in a widely expected move and signalled that more hikes would be coming. This is the first rate hike since 2018. In a cautious stance, the Bank announced it was continuing the reinvestment phase, keeping its overall Government of Canada bonds holdings on its balance sheet roughly stable. 

The Bank’s press release highlighted the major new source of uncertainty provided by the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by Russia and suggested that it is a new source of substantial inflation pressure. Prices for oil, metals, wheat and other grains have skyrocketed recently. Moreover, this geopolitical distention negatively impacts confidence worldwide and adds new supply disruptions that dampen growth. “Financial market volatility has increased. The situation remains fluid, and we are following events closely.”

The Bank commented that economies have emerged from the impact of the Omicron variant more quickly than expected. Demand is robust, particularly in the US.

“Economic growth in Canada was very strong in the fourth quarter of last year at 6.7%. This is stronger than the Bank’s projection and confirms its view that economic slack has been absorbed. Both exports and imports have picked up, consistent with solid global demand. In January, Canada’s labour market recovery suffered a setback due to the Omicron variant, with temporary layoffs in service sectors and elevated employee absenteeism. However, the rebound from Omicron now appears to be well in train: household spending is proving resilient and should strengthen further with the lifting of public health restrictions. Housing market activity is more elevated, adding further pressure to house prices. Overall, first-quarter growth is now looking more solid than previously projected.”

Canadian CPI inflation has risen to 5.1%, as expected in January, well below the 7.5% level posted in the US.” Price increases have become more pervasive, and measures of core inflation have all risen. Poor harvests and higher transportation costs have pushed up food prices. The invasion of Ukraine is putting further upward pressure on prices for both energy and food-related commodities. All told, inflation is now expected to be higher in the near term than projected in January. Persistently elevated inflation increases the risk that longer-run inflation expectations could drift upwards. The Bank will use its monetary policy tools to return inflation to the 2% target and keep inflation expectations well-anchored.”

The final paragraph of the Bank’s press release speaks with great clarity: “The policy rate is the Bank’s primary monetary policy instrument. As the economy continues to expand and inflation pressures remain elevated, the Governing Council expects interest rates will need to rise further. The Governing Council will also be considering when to end the reinvestment phase and allow its holdings of Government of Canada bonds to begin to shrink. The resulting quantitative tightening (QT) would complement the policy interest rate increases. The timing and pace of further increases in the policy rate, and the start of QT, will be guided by the Bank’s ongoing assessment of the economy and its commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target”.

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada has made a clear statement regarding the outlook for a normalization of interest rates. We expect a series of rate hikes over the next year. Expect another 25 basis point increase following the next meeting on April 13. The increased uncertainty and volatility arising from the war in Ukraine is front of mind worldwide. Still, it will not deter central banks from tightening monetary policy to forestall an embedded rise in inflation expectations.

The Bank of Canada has postponed Quantitative Tightening, for now, a prudent move in the face of geopolitical uncertainty.

This article is credited to the Sherry Cooper Assoc.


Angela Calla is an 18-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. 

In August of 2020, at the young age of 37, Angela surpassed $1 Billion dollars in funded personal mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

bank of canada

Five Tips for Your Upcoming Renewal

General Angela Calla 1 Mar

This is a big year for mortgage renewals. You deserve to get the most out of your investment; by adhering to the following tips, you stand a great chance of saving thousands down the road by handling your mortgage renewal the right way

Start planning for the renewal at least four months in advance
You want to give yourself plenty of time to research every available lender and product with the unbiased credit-protecting free service of an independent mortgage professional. While this is always true, it is vital at times when rate hikes are expected, such is the case in Canada currently. With mortgage rates predicted to increase upwards of 1.5 percentage points finding the ideal lender/loan combination with the best terms to navigate changing times is imperative

Understand the difference between fixed and variable rates
Every type of mortgage carries with it a level of risk; determining which type is best for your individual situation is the main challenge. With a fixed, you have peace of mind knowing your rate will never increase throughout the term. However, this also means it can never go down, your penalty can be higher to exit the mortgage, and you pay a higher rate for security. On average, this is approx. 1% so you generally pay more interest upfront, and if you want to change to a fixed, you can at any time. Variable-rate mortgages change with the ebbs and flows of the economy.  The right mortgage strategy is put together when you understand those numbers and how it compares to your emotions on handling changing variables.

Consolidate your debts
If you are carrying debt outside your mortgage, absolutely include that into a new mortgage and do a refinance instead of renewal. This way you will get rid of those outside payments, save hundreds if not thousands every month, and if you ever dreamed of moving up the property ladder, retiring earlier, owning an investment property, this will improve your qualifications to give you the options to do so and help you become debt-free sooner. This is your time to do just that and take the equity out with a renewal.

Some other considerations could include:

  • Any big purchases such as home renovations
  • Paying out a guarantor or gift you received to make your home purchase in the first place
  • Or if you just don’t have an emergency fund handy

You can also check out the post we did just on debt consolidation by clicking HERE

Assess and adjust your amortization period if viable
The longer you pay on your mortgage, the more interest you will be compelled to pay. Trimming your loan period by even a couple of years can save a bundle. On the other hand, if you are in a cash crunch, want to save for other investments, or are going through a divorce you may want to take a longer period if available to you while you navigate your agreement.

Buy insurance to protect your assets
This can come in the form of critical illness or life insurance, but both are guaranteed to provide a critical financial safety net in the event of a major life change or emergency.

These five steps will prevent you from making a big mistake when it comes to renewing your mortgage. Ask plenty of questions and go through the process of thinking about not just the immediate future but the next decade; remember, it is your money on the line.


Angela Calla is an 18-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. 

In August of 2020, at the young age of 37, Angela surpassed $1 Billion dollars in funded personal mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

renewal

Budget 2022 moves us forward together to build a StrongerBC

General Angela Calla 22 Feb

Budget 2022 reflects the choices government is making that are needed to build a stronger B.C. and make life better for people, by investing in B.C.’s economic, environmental and social strengths.

Budget 2022 supports bold actions to fight climate change and to protect people and communities from climate-related disasters. In addition, the budget helps with the cost of living by reducing child care costs, delivers a comprehensive approach to respond to and prevent homelessness, makes investments needed to close the digital divide and grow an inclusive and sustainable economy, and continues to strengthen the public services British Columbians rely on.


Angela Calla is an 18-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. 

In August of 2020, at the young age of 37, Angela surpassed $1 Billion dollars in funded personal mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

budget

Canadian Inflation Rose Again in January to 5.1% Y/Y, Pressuring the Bank of Canada to Hike Rates in March

General Angela Calla 17 Feb

Inflation Ticked Up Again in January

StatsCanada today reported that consumer price inflation rose to 5.1% from year-ago levels in January, compared to 4.8% in December. This was higher than expected but still well below US inflation posted at 7.5% for the same period. Undoubtedly, this puts additional pressure on the Bank of Canada to hike the overnight policy rate target in early March when it meets again, despite the disappointing jobs data last month. Even excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 4.3% y/y last month.

Shelter costs rose 6.2% year over year in January 2022, the fastest pace since February 1990. Higher prices for new homes contribute to higher costs associated with the upkeep of a property or the homeowners’ replacement cost. Higher home prices also tend to raise other owned accommodation expenses. In contrast, lower interest rates bring borrowing costs down—measured in the CPI through the mortgage interest cost index, which includes new and resale home prices.

The owned accommodation index, which measures the ongoing costs of homeownership, increased 6.1% year over year in January. Homeowners’ replacement cost (+13.5%) and other owned accommodation expenses (+14.0%), which includes commissions on the sale of real estate, put upward pressure on shelter prices amid rapid price growth in the housing market throughout the pandemic.

Conversely, mortgage interest costs fell 6.8% year over year in January, putting downward pressure on the shelter index.

Renters also saw a rise in prices, as the rented accommodation index increased 3.2% year over year, contributing to the higher shelter prices Canadians faced in January.

Another highly visible component of rising inflation was the surge in food prices. Shoppers paid more for groceries, as food prices from stores rose faster in January 2022 (+6.5%) than in December 2021 (+5.7%).

Prices for fresh or frozen beef (+13.0%), fresh or frozen chicken (+9.0%), and fresh or frozen fish (+7.9%) rose more in January 2022 compared with December 2021. Margarine (+16.5%) and condiments, spices, and kinds of vinegar (+12.1%) were also up compared with January 2021. Higher input prices and shipping costs because of ongoing supply chain disruptions have contributed to increased food prices. In addition to supply chain disruptions, unfavourable growing conditions have led to higher prices for fresh fruit (+8.2%) and bakery products (+7.4%).

Consumers paid more for alcohol in January 2022, as alcoholic beverages purchased from stores rose 2.9%, following a 1.6% gain in December 2021. Much of this increase stemmed from higher prices for both beer and wine, amid material shortages and increased shipping costs.

Bottom Line

Inflation has now exceeded the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% target band for 10 consecutive months. Other central banks have already begun to hike overnight rates from their effective lower bound of 25 basis points introduced in March 2020.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is preparing to raise interest rates in March, and last Friday’s jobs report fueled speculation it may need to move aggressively. The Bank of England just delivered back-to-back hikes, and some of its officials wanted to act even more forcefully. The Bank of Canada is set for liftoff next month. Even the European Central Bank may get in on the action later this year.

The recent trucker protests and border blockades have further disrupted the fragile auto supply chain. Wages in Canada rose 2.4% y/y, so Canadian households, on average, are seeing their purchasing power diminish.

Markets are pricing in as many as seven increases in borrowing costs over the next 12 months. While the Bank runs the risk of tightening too aggressively, there is little doubt that the emergency monetary easing has run its course.

This article is credited to the Sherry Cooper Assoc. 


Angela Calla is an 18-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. 

In August of 2020, at the young age of 37, Angela surpassed $1 Billion dollars in funded personal mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

inflation

Canadian Housing Markets Tighten, Pushing Price Higher

General Angela Calla 16 Feb

Wanted: Home Sellers

Housing affordability remains a huge political issue, and with the Department of Finance working on the upcoming budget, no doubt measures to reduce home prices will be front and center. With an election coming this spring in Ontario, Premier Ford’s Housing Affordability Task Force has made recommendations to step up homebuilding. Still, Ontario’s mayors are balking at some of their proposals. The task force report from the calls for “binding provincial action” to allow buildings up to four storeys tall and up to four units on a residential lot.

Ontario’s Big City Mayors group responded, saying, “Unilateral actions, absent municipal input, may have unintended consequences that slow down development and reduce the community support needed to continue to sustainably add housing.””While overcoming Not In My Back Yard-ism is essential to success, so is respect for local decision-making and the democratic process.”  This is a roadblock to the aggressive and timely response.

We desperately need dramatic increases in new housing construction, which has been woefully constrained by local zoning, red tape and city planning issues. These are not under the auspices of the federal government. So instead, bandaid measures that do not directly address the fundamental issue of a housing shortage will likely be forthcoming in the spring federal budget.

Today the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released statistics for January 2022 showing national existing-home sales rose edged higher on a month-over-month basis, constrained by limited supply. Excess demand pushed home prices up on the month by a record 2.9%, taking the year-over-year home price index up a record 28%. Cliff Stevenson, Chair of CREA said, “The question is will that supply be overwhelmed by demand as it was last spring, or will we start to see the re-emergence of some of the many would-be sellers who have been hunkered down for the last two years?

“The ideal situation between now and the summer would be that a huge surge of sellers come forward looking to sell in the spring 2022 market,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “If that were to occur, similar to 2021, we’d likely see a massive number of sales take place which would get a lot of frustrated buyers into homeownership, and we’d likely see some cooling off on the price growth side if those offers are spread across more listings. Those are all things this market needs. It really comes down to how many properties come up for sale in the months ahead”.

New Listings

In January, the number of newly listed homes dropped by a whopping 11% m/m, with a pullback in the GTA accounting for more than half of the national decline (chart 1 below).

With sales up a bit and new listings down by double-digits in January, the sales-to-new listings ratio shot to 89.4% compared to 78.7% in December (chart 2 below). This was the second-highest level on record for this measure, only slightly below the record 90.2% set last January. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 55%.

A record 85% of local markets were seller’s markets based on the sales-to-new listings ratio is more than one standard deviation above its long-term mean in January 2022. The other 15% of local markets were in balanced market territory.

There were only 1.6 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of January 2022 — tied with December 2021 for the lowest level ever recorded. The long-term average for this measure is a little over five months.

 

 

Home Prices

In line with the tightest market conditions ever recorded, the Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was up a record 2.9% on a month-over-month basis in January 2022. The gains were similar to those recorded in the previous three months.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up by a record 28% on a year-over-year basis in January.

Looking around the country, year-over-year price growth is in line with the national figure at 28% in B.C., though it remains lower in Vancouver, close to on par with the provincial number in Victoria, and higher in most other parts of the province.

Year-over-year price gains are still in the mid-to-high single digits in Alberta and Saskatchewan, while gains are running at about 13% in Manitoba.

Ontario saw year-over-year price growth remain above 30% in January, with the GTA having now caught up with the pace of provincial gains. The rest of the province is a mixed bag, up in between 25% and 40% on a year-over-year basis, save for Ottawa where prices are running at 16% year-over-year.

Greater Montreal’s year-over-year price growth remains at a little over 20%, while Quebec City was about half that.

Price growth is running above 30% in New Brunswick (higher in Greater Moncton, lower in Fredericton and Saint John), 27% on Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland and Labrador is now at 12% year-over-year.

 


Bottom Line

While most developed countries have seen excess demand for housing over the past two years pushing home prices higher, Canada has the most significant housing shortage in the G7. This began in late 2015 when the federal government decided it would target the entry of much larger numbers of economic immigrants. Canada is “underpopulated” and celebrates a growing population, unlike many other countries. There are many job vacancies to be filled, and more people means more economic growth and prosperity for Canada.

But what the federal government forgot to do was provide housing for all new residents. Simply put, governments at all levels established no plan to provide any additional housing for all of these newcomers, let alone affordable housing.

Canada’s net migration rate is 6.375 per 1,000 people, the eighth-highest in the world. Approximately 1.8 million more people were calling Canada home in 2021 than five years earlier, with four in five of these having immigrated to Canada since 2016.

This is not rocket science. The government can blame foreign buyers or investors for our housing shortage, but inadequate planning and antiquated processes and policies are the real culprits.

This article is credited to the Sherry Cooper Assoc.


Angela Calla is an 18-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. 

In August of 2020, at the young age of 37, Angela surpassed $1 Billion dollars in funded personal mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

housing

Bank of Canada is putting a hold on interest rates – The Jill Bennett Show

General Angela Calla 11 Feb

Recently, Angela was invited to speak on The Jill Bennett Show in light of the recent Bank of Canada announcement. We can breathe a sigh of relief as there was no rise in interest rates. But that’s not to say we shouldn’t stay vigilant. The rates are sure to increase this year, and this means now is the time to make the most of these historic low rates and use them to your advantage.

We have gotten many concerned clients call and ask if they should lock in their variable rate, in preparation for the eventual increases. While this can be the way to go, depending on your personal comfort level, our goal is to try and lower that principal amount. A way to relieve some of that tension is to pay that variable rate as if it were a fixed rate, so when the increases do finally come, the change will still be lower than what you pay. As historically, the Bank of Canada will only raise the interest rates by 0.25%. That’s only equivalent to a $13 increase per 100K in your mortgage!

More is discussed in the actual interview, so if you have seven minutes to spare, we do recommend giving it a listen. Knowledge is power, and we want to ensure you are equipped with the right tools to navigate the market in these trying times.

We also have an upcoming webinar this month on protecting yourself during the time of rising interest rates. So, if you or a loved one have an upcoming mortgage renewal or are looking to utilize home equity to consolidate debt, join us on February 24, at 7:00 PM!


Angela Calla is an 18-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. 

In August of 2020, at the young age of 37, Angela surpassed $1 Billion dollars in funded personal mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

interest

Major Setback in Canada’s January Employment Report

General Angela Calla 7 Feb

No Wonder The Bank of Canada Didn’t Hike Interest Rates Last Month

Statistics Canada released the January Labour Force Survey this morning, reporting a much more extensive than expected decline in jobs last month. The Omicron shutdowns and restrictions took a much larger toll in Canada than expected, as employment fell 200,100 in January and the unemployment rate rose 0.5 percentage points to 6.5%.

Ontario and Quebec drove January employment declines, and accommodation and food services was the hardest-hit industry. In January, youth and core-aged women, who are more likely than other demographic groups to work in industries affected by the public health measures, saw the most significant impacts. Goods-producing sectors recorded a gain, led by construction.

We did not expect the Bank of Canada to hike rates in January because of the risk that Omicron restrictions would batter the economy at least temporarily. If we see a reversal in these declines in February, rate hikes could well commence. The Bank of Canada’s next policy-decision date is March 2. But we won’t see the Labour Force Survey for February until March 11. This could postpone lift-off by the BoC until the next meeting on April 13, when we will have both the February and March employment reports. This would put the first rate hike in April, exactly when the Bank’s forward guidance initially told us the hikes would begin. 

The timing of lift-off is subject to the incoming data. It is troubling that the US employment report, also released today for January, was surprisingly strong, in contrast. To be sure, the US did not impose Canadian-style Omicron restrictions last month, but the Omicron wave did depress US economic activity. It was expected to translate into weak hiring. It didn’t. 467,000 jobs were created in the US, and massive upward revisions suggest a fundamentally very strong US economy. With US companies desperate to hire and the most significant issue being the lack of qualified staff, wages are rising more sharply south of the border.

Canadian employment remains just over 30,000 above pre-pandemic levels, and the country has a strong track record of bouncing back after prior waves of the virus. Yet, today’s jobs numbers suggest a tough start for the Canadian economy in the first quarter. Hours worked — which is closely correlated to output — fell 2.2% in January, and the number of employees who worked less than half their usual hours jumped by 620,000. January also saw the first drop in full-time employment — down 82,700 — since June.

Average hourly wages grew 2.4% (+$0.72) on a year-over-year basis in January, down from 2.7% in November and December 2021 (not seasonally adjusted). The January 2022 year-over-year change was similar to the average annual wage growth of 2.5% observed in the five years from 2015 to 2019.

The concentration of January 2022 employment losses in lower-wage industries did not significantly impact year-over-year wage change, partly because employment in these industries experienced similar losses in January 2021 as a result of the third wave of COVID-19.


Bottom Line
There remains uncertainty regarding when (not if) the Bank of Canada will begin to renormalize interest rates. Canadian swaps trading suggests markets are still expecting a hike on March 2, with five more hikes over the next year. Potential homebuyers are certainly anxious to get in under the wire.

You can read this article on Sherry Cooper Assoc.


Angela Calla is an 18-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. 

In August of 2020, at the young age of 37, Angela surpassed $1 Billion dollars in funded personal mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

employment

No Rate Hike Until March – BoC Assures Inflation Will Return To 2% Over 2023-24

General Angela Calla 31 Jan

Bank Will Hike Rates At Next Meeting

While markets were 70% certain the Bank would hike their overnight target rate today, we remained of the view that the Governing Council would hold off until March or April because of the slowdown in first-quarter growth arising from the Omicron restrictions. The Bank announced today that economic slack in the economy had been absorbed more rapidly than expected in late October when they last met. “Employment is above pre-pandemic levels, businesses are having a hard time filling job openings, and wage increases are picking up. Unevenness across sectors remains, the Governing Council judges the economy is now operating close to its full capacity.”

Consequently, the Bank now believes that emergency measures arising from the pandemic are no longer necessary. They clearly state that a rising path for interest rates will be required to moderate domestic spending growth and bring inflation back to target. Being mindful that the increasing spread of Omicron will dampen spending in the first quarter, they decided to keep the policy rate unchanged today and to signal that rates will rise going forward. “The timing and pace of those increases will be guided by the Bank’s commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target.”

Notably, the Bank also suggested that another vital policy measure to reduce demand and thereby control inflation is “quantitative tightening” (Q.T.), reducing the central bank’s holdings of Canadian government bonds on its balance sheet. This selling of bonds also raises interest rates. “The Bank will keep the holdings of Government of Canada bonds on our balance sheet roughly constant at least until we begin to raise the policy interest rate. At that time, we will consider exiting the reinvestment phase and reducing the size of our balance sheet by allowing maturing Government of Canada bonds to roll off. As we have done in the past, before implementing changes to our balance sheet management, we will provide more information on our plans.”

The Bank of Canada is very concerned about maintaining its hard-won inflation-fighting credibility. Remember that while Canadian inflation is at a 30-year high–as it is in the rest of the world–at 4.8%, Canadian inflation pales compared to the 7.0% rate in the U.S. and 6.8% rate in the U.K. (see chart below). It is also below the pace of the Euro area. The Bank stated that “CPI inflation remains well above the target range and core measures of inflation have edged up since October. Persistent supply constraints are feeding through to a broader range of goods prices and, combined with higher food and energy prices, are expected to keep CPI inflation close to 5% in the first half of 2022. As supply shortages diminish, inflation is expected to decline reasonably quickly to about 3% by the end of this year and gradually ease towards the target over the projection period. Near-term inflation expectations have moved up, but longer-run expectations remain anchored on the 2% target. The Bank will use its monetary policy tools to ensure that higher near-term inflation expectations do not become embedded in ongoing inflation.”

 

Bottom Line

It surprises me that economists in Canada would expect the Bank to hike interest rates during a Covid lockdown without properly measured signalling beforehand. Bay St’s hysteria about inflation seems to have muddied thinking. The Bank will be taking out the big guns to get inflation under control. Overnight rate hikes begin at the next policy meeting on March 2 and then Quantitative Tightening shortly after that. The downsizing of the Bank’s balance could have even more dramatic effects on the shape of the yield curve, hiking longer-term interest rates.

In today’s policy statement and Monetary Policy Report, the Bank emphasized the strength of the housing market and the impact on inflation of the more than 20% rise in Canadian house prices last year. The MPR suggests that housing market activity strengthened again in recent months, led by a rebound in existing home sales.”Low borrowing rates and high disposable incomes continue to contribute to elevated levels of housing activity in the first quarter. At the same time, other factors that support demand, such as population growth, are also now picking up.”

Traders continue to bet that the Bank of Canada will hike interest rates by 25 basis points five or six times this year. This would take the overnight rate from 0.25% to 1.5% to 1.75%. It was 1.75% in February of 2020 before the pandemic easing began. Markets also expect two more rate hikes in 2023, taking the overnight rate to 2.25%.

Volatility in financial markets has surged this year. The FOMC, the US policy-making body, announces its decision at 2 PM ET today. No rate hike is expected yet, but the Fed will undoubtedly commit to serious rate hikes and balance sheet contraction in the coming months.

You can read this article at Sherry Cooper Assoc.


Angela Calla is an 18-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. 

In August of 2020, at the young age of 37, Angela surpassed $1 Billion dollars in funded personal mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

rate

If You’re Considering Locking in Your Variable Mortgage

General Angela Calla 26 Jan

The Bank of Canada has made their announcement to keep interest rates the same today, but we fully expect them to increase later this year. For some, this may be an opportunity for locking in your mortgage.

With the current inflationary pressures, it’s very common to consider if you should lock in your variable rate mortgage. If rates go up and you presently have a variable rate mortgage, this means that the next month your payment will go up with most lenders.

With every 0.25 basis point increase, it’s $13/month per 100k in a mortgage. As an example, if you have a 300k mortgage, expect your payment to go up approx. $40/month

Please keep in mind if you do decide to lock into a fixed rate, we are presently seeing lock-in rates at approximately 3%. This means if you have a mortgage below 2% right now and you decide to lock in now, you are guaranteeing, approximately, an additional 1% in interest to the lender for the “security” of a fixed rate (which would take four increases from the Bank of Canada).

Over time, locking-in has proven not to be the most cost-effective, if, and only IF you have the peace of mind to continue on the path.

At least knowing how the numbers impact you will help you determine what is best for your family, as it is a personal decision.

Knowing what a balancing act the Bank of Canada has ahead, I am not rushing to lock in my variable rate mortgage, as every time I have has been met with regret. This is what experience has taught me in my 18 years of mortgage holding.

There is a saying “life is variable, so your mortgage should be too”, however, peaceful sleep at night can also be worth its weight in gold, knowing that fixed rates are below inflation.

Your first step should be to confirm with your lender directly what your lock-in rate would be, and then feel free to reach out to us! We can then determine if we should update our records or look at making a change to a new mortgage lender if there is a better option out there for you.

Here is a link to the Bank of Canada announcement as well as a link to download our DLC mortgage app to see how your payments could/would change.

Some common lenders contact information to see what lock-in options are:

First National
Portal: https://mymortgage.firstnational.ca/#/
Email address: https://mymortgage.firstnational.ca/#/, or customer.service@firstnational.ca
Phone number: 604-681-5300

Merix
Portal: https://merix.mymortgagedetails.com/
Email address: customerservice@merixfinancial.com
Phone number: 1-877-637-4914

DLC
Portal: https://www.paradigmquest.com/our-brands/dlc/contact-dominion
Email DLCmortgagesupport@paradigmquest.com
Phone number: 1-866-928-6810

RMG
Portal: https://www.rmgmortgages.ca/myrmg/login

Email: mortgagesupport@rmgmortgages.ca
Phone number: 1-866-809-5800

MCAP
Portal https://www.mcap.com/contact-us/residential-mortgages
Email: service@mcap.com
Phone number: 1-800-265-2624

Scotia
Phone number: 1-877-303-8879

TD
Phone number: 1-877-230-6275

HSBC
Phone number: 1-888-310-4722

If you are in a fixed-rate mortgage, creating a budget that counts for where rates are each year will help you avoid future payment/interest rate shock to position you best for your renewal. If you or a loved one needs some help, we are just a phone call or email away!


Angela Calla is an 18-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. 

In August of 2020, at the young age of 37, Angela surpassed $1 Billion dollars in funded personal mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click  here to view the latest news on our blog. 

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Avoiding Payment Shock, Using Today’s Rates to Your Advantage

General Angela Calla 25 Jan

In this current ultra-low interest rate environment, I thought it would be a good time to remind those of you with variable-rate mortgages and balances on your lines of credit to take advantage of your current low payments NOW so that you can prepare for if or when rates begin to rise.

With rates being this low, you are likely savings tens, hundreds, or thousands of dollars right now! I often recommend taking a look at what you *could* be paying if you had a higher rate mortgage and then setting aside that difference each month into a savings account. That way, if or when rates start to rise, you will have a slush fund to draw from. If they don’t, you’ll have a nice savings cushion to either continue building upon or to use as a lump-sum prepayment to pay down your mortgage principal (don’t forget – those prepayment privileges are there for you to utilize!).

For example, let’s say you have a $500,000 mortgage balance right now with a 5-year variable rate of 1.50% and a 25-year amortization compared to an estimated 5-year fixed rate of 2.79%.

 

The monthly payments for each would be $1,999.68 and $2,312.68, respectively. If you set aside that $313 difference per month, you would have an extra $3,756 saved in one year, if rates remain the same. After a five-year mortgage term, that money saved equates to $18,780! Wrap that up into a one-time prepayment and you are knocking off one year and one month off your total mortgage.

 

After another few more years, that becomes a tremendous amount of equity that can be used to consolidate your debt or further invest in yourself and your family!

Hope this helps some of you! Have a great weekend! ☀️


Angela Calla is a 18-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. 

In August of 2020, at the young age of 37, Angela surpassed $1 Billion dollars in funded personal mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click  here to view the latest news on our blog. 

mortgage