Angela Calla has always loved real estate and financial planning so being a mortgage broker is the best of both worlds! Some of her many awards are the Accredited Mortgage Professional Award of the Year, Canada wide, in 2009, the Women of Influence Award several years running, and the 2020 Best Selling Author Pursuit 365. Angela is also the host of The Mortgage Show, the longest standing Home Finance radio show.
Angela started her business at just 22 years old. One of Angela’s favorite parts of being a mortgage broker is that her business is free to her clients because she gets paid through the lender where the mortgage ends up getting placed. She is passionate about empowering Canadians. From real estate investment and financial planning to insurance and business leadership, everything she recommends is exactly what she does for herself. Every day is exciting and different when it comes to the business, but these last 2 years have been dedicated to education and alignment with industry partners to lead for the people she serves.
Canadian Home Trends: Name one thing on your bucket list. Angela Calla: I want to go on a 6-week trip to Italy. Rent a huge house, have a few friends come to visit me and explore more of my heritage with my husband, kids, and best friends.
CHT: What is your favorite spot in your house? AC: The bathtub is a magical place for me! There is no phone, no digital interruptions. I can just relax. When my kids, who are my two favorite humans ever, come to talk to me uninterrupted, I hear so much about their day, their feelings, their friends, their dreams and their goals.
Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show”and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.
Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.caor at 604-802-3983.
This morning’s Jobs Report was again solid. Job creation, though more tempered than in earlier months, is still robust. The unemployment rate remained at 5.0% for the fourth consecutive month. Very troubling to the Bank of Canada was the wage inflation, still above 5%.
No doubt the Bank does not welcome this news. But the jobs market is a lagging indicator, so the BoC will likely continue the pause on April 12th. DLC will host another In Conversation on that date with President, Eddy Cocciollo, and myself.
The economy will report about 1.5% GDP growth in Q1–up from zero growth at the end of last year. Consumer spending remains strong, and the early indications suggest that the housing market is picking up and prices are rising on limited supply. As the year progresses, supply shortages will become more evident, and rent will increase sharply, making ownership more attractive.
All eyes will be on OSFI mid-month when the comment period on new initiatives end. The Department of Finance wants banks to ease credit conditions, especially for VRM borrowers now running negative amortization. OSFI has different ideas, especially with a mini banking crisis in the US and Switzerland.
Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show”and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.
Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.caor at 604-802-3983.
In March, the global economy was focused on systemic risk in the banking sector.
Following three bank failures in the U.S., markets were roiled again by the forced sale of Credit Suisse to UBS.
Interest rates have plummeted as demand for the haven of government bonds has increased sharply. Consequently, five-year fixed mortgage rates have fallen roughly 30 basis points as the Fed pondered its next move.
Inevitably, failed banks and fears of additional losses have led many financial institutions to tighten their provision of credit. Although interest rates have fallen worldwide, more cautious lending will slow economic activity, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, ground zero for bank failures.
For that reason, many expected the Fed to pause to assess the situation further. The Fed raised its overnight policy rate 25 bps to a range of 4.75% to 5.0%, now above the overnight rate in Canada.
Just over two weeks ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified to Congress that inflation pressures warranted higher-than-expected interest rates. With the bank failures, the Fed suggests that the target level might be only one or two moves away. However, even with that, the U.S. central bank reasserted that interest rates determined by the Fed will not be reduced until next year.
Market-determined yields have fallen sharply, especially at the short end of the yield curve—increasing the inversion in the yield curve. An inverted yield curve portends a more aggressive economic slowdown, reflected in the fall in oil and gas prices.
Canada’s yield curve moved almost as much as in the U.S. Good news on the inflation front affirmed the Bank of Canada’s decision to pause. Consumer price inflation fell last month from 5.9% to 5.2%. The Bank will likely pause again at its next meeting in April.
Canadian bank stocks fell quite a bit, mirroring global trends. Our banks are in no danger of failing. Like the 2008 Financial Crisis, Canadian banks have proven to be very soundly regulated.
Lower mortgage rates are great news for the coming Spring season. While it won’t measure up to the 2021 boom, a rebound in sales and new listings will be great for the industry.
(This article is courtesy of the April DLC Newsletter)
Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show”and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.
Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.caor at 604-802-3983.
Your payment schedule is the frequency that you make mortgage payments and ranges from monthly to bi-monthly, bi-weekly, accelerated bi-weekly or even weekly payments.
Below is a quick overview of what each of these payment frequencies mean:
Monthly Payments: A monthly payment is simply a single large payment, paid once per month; this is the default that sets your amortization. A 25-year mortgage, paid monthly, will take 25 years to pay off but includes the added burden of one larger payment coming from one employment pay period. With this payment frequency, you make 12 payments per year.
Example: $750k mortgage, 3-year fixed rate, 5.34%, 30-year amortization you would have a monthly payment of $4,156.19. No term savings; no amortization savings.
Bi-Weekly Payments: A bi-weekly mortgage payment is a total of 26 payments per year, calculated by multiplying your monthly mortgage payment by 12 months and divided by the 26 pay periods.
Example: $750k mortgage, 3-year fixed rate, 5.34%, 30-year amortization you would have a bi-weekly payment of $1,915.98 with term savings of $177 and total amortization savings of $1,769.
Accelerated Bi-Weekly Payments: An accelerated bi-weekly mortgage payment is also 26 payments per year, but the payment amount is higher than a regular bi-weekly payment frequency. Opting for an accelerated bi-weekly payment will not only pay your mortgage off quicker, but it’s guaranteed to save you a significant amount of money over the term of your mortgage. This frequency also allows the mortgage payment to be split up into smaller payments vs a single, larger payment per month. This is especially ideal for households who get paid every two weeks as the reduction in cash flow is more on track with incoming income.
Example: $750k mortgage, 3-year fixed rate, 5.34%, 30-year amortization you would have accelerated bi-weekly payments of $2,078.10 with term savings of $1,217 and total amortization savings of $145,184. Plus, you would save 4 years, 12 months of payments by reducing scheduled amortization.
Weekly Payments: Similar to monthly payments, your weekly mortgage payment frequency is calculated by multiplying your monthly mortgage payment by 12 months and dividing by 52 weeks in a year. In this case, you would make 52 payments a year on your mortgage.
Example: $750k mortgage, 3-year fixed rate, 5.34%, 30-year amortization you would have weekly payments of $957.50 with term savings of $253 and total amortization savings of $2,526. You can move to accelerated weekly payments to save even more!
Prepayment Privileges: In addition to fine-tuning your payment schedule, most mortgage products include prepayment privileges that enable you to pay up to 20% of the principal (the true value of your mortgage minus the interest payments) per calendar year. This can help reduce your amortization period (the length of your mortgage).
By exercising your prepayment privileges, you can take time off your mortgage. For instance:
Extra $50 bi-weekly is $32,883 total savings and an additional 1 year, 2 months time saved
Extra $100 bi-weekly is $62,100 in total savings and an additional 2 years, 3 months time saved on your mortgage
Extra $200 bi-weekly is $111,850 in total savings and an additional 4 years, 1 month of time saved on your mortgage.
Understanding the different payment frequencies can be key in managing your monthly cash flow. If you’re struggling to meet a large payment, breaking it up can be effective; while the same can be true of the opposite. Individuals struggling to make a weekly or bi-weekly payment, may benefit from one monthly sum where they have time to collect the funds.
Consider getting in touch with me today to determine what payment frequency is best for you OR you can download my app and calculate them for yourself!
(This article is courtesy of the DLC April Newsletter)
Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show”and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.
Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.caor at 604-802-3983.
Earlier this week, the Government of Canada announced a series of amendments to the Foreign Buyer Ban. These amendments expand the exceptions to the regulations, are effective immediately, as of March 27, 2023, and are as follows:
The Foreign Buyer Ban no longer applies to work permit holders. Now, those who hold a work permit or are authorized to work in Canada are allowed to purchase residential property. This exception will apply so long as the permit holders have 183 days of validity, or more, remaining on their permit, and have not purchased more than one residential property.
The Foreign Buyer Ban allows non-Canadians to purchase residential property for the purpose of development. Note that this will likely not include leasing or renting the property out to tenants or otherwise managing property as a rental property as part of a portfolio. Also, repairs, renovations and remodeling do not count as “development”, only expansions or remodels that are equivalent to constructing a new building or changing the use of a property.
The Foreign Buyer Ban no longer applies to Vacant Land. Non-Canadians can now purchase vacant land zoned for residential use and use it for any purpose.
The Foreign Control Threshold is now 10%. Previously, an entity was deemed foreign if non-Canadians owned 3% or more of it. With the amendment, the maximum amount of non-Canadian control is 10%
Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show”and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.
Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.caor at 604-802-3983.
On March 27, 2023, the federal government announced amendments to the Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act’s (the Act) accompanying Regulations, effective March 27, 2023. The Act was passed in June 2022 and the regulations came into force January 1, 2023.
Here’s what you need to know about the amendments to the Foreign Buyers Ban.
Enable more work permit holders to purchase a home to live in while working in Canada.
The amendments allow those who hold a work permit or are authorized to work in Canada under the Immigration and Refugee Protection Regulations to purchase residential property. Work permit holders are eligible if they have 183 days or more of validity remaining on their work permit or work authorization at time of purchase and they have not purchased more than one residential property. The current provisions on tax filings and previous work experience in Canada are being repealed.
Repealing existing provision so the prohibition doesn’t apply to vacant land.
Repealing section 3(2) of the regulations, so the prohibition does not apply to all lands zoned for residential and mixed use. Vacant land zoned for residential and mixed use can now be purchased by non-Canadians and used for any purpose by the purchaser, including residential development.
Exception for development purposes.
This exception allows non-Canadians to purchase residential property for the purpose of development. The amendments also extend the exception currently applicable to publicly traded corporations under the Act, to publicly traded entities formed under the laws of Canada or a province, and controlled by a non-Canadian.
Increasing the corporation foreign control threshold from 3 per cent to 10 per cent.
For the purposes of the Prohibition, with regards to privately held corporations or privately held entities formed under the laws of Canada or a province and controlled by a non-Canadian, the control threshold has increased from 3 per cent to 10 per cent. This aligns with the Underused Housing Tax Act’s definition of ‘specified Canadian Corporation’.
While the BC Real Estate Association (BCREA) welcomes these amendments because they provide greater flexibility to newcomers and businesses seeking to contribute to Canada, we remain opposed to the legislation’s highly political and largely non-evidential assertion that foreign ownership plays a significant role in Canadian housing attainability.
The federal government’s need to amend this policy demonstrates its overly hasty policy-making process. The negative unintended consequences that necessitated the amendments could have been mitigated with proactive, fulsome sectoral consultation. The negative fallout from this legislation once again highlights a concerning trend at all levels of government to implement policy affecting major economic sectors without adequate advance sectoral consultation.
BCREA is committed to continuing our advocacy efforts calling for the establishment of a Permanent Housing Roundtable to bring together all stakeholders in the housing sphere and help address its challenges with an inclusive, holistic and innovative approach.
Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show”and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.
Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.caor at 604-802-3983.
Alternative minimum tax (AMT) rules expanded to apply to more high-income earners.
Qualifying family members measure for RDSPs will be extended by three years to 2026, and expanded to include siblings 18 and older.
The maximum educational assistance payment (EAP) withdrawal for the first 13 weeks of enrollment increased to $8,000 (full-time students) and $4,000 (part-time students).
A new grocery rebate will be available by increasing the maximum Good and Service Tax Credit (GSTC).
Employee ownership trusts (EOT) will be available to facilitate business succession between business owners and employees starting January 2024.
Retirement compensation arrangements will not be subject to 50% refundable tax on fees or premiums paid for securing or renewing a letter of credit.
Deduction for tradespeople’s tools doubled from $500 to $1,000, effective 2023.
Measures for corporations
Bill C-208 refined with additional safeguards for genuine intergenerational business transfer from parents to children.
Several tax credits and other incentives introduced for businesses producing and manufacturing clean energy.
Public corporations subject to a new 2% tax on equity issuance and repurchases.
Proposal of several amendments to GAAR (General Anti-avoidance Rule).
Other notable measures
Inflation adjustment on the excise tax for beer, spirits and wine temporarily capped at 2% for this year.
Canada Student Grants (CSG) will increase by 40%.
Government to lower credit card fees for small business.
Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show”and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.
Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.caor at 604-802-3983.
As promised, there would be nothing much in this year’s budget for fear of stimulating inflation. The federal government faces a challenging fiscal environment and a weakening economy. Ottawa promised it would err on the side of restraint. Instead, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland announced a $43 billion increase in net new government spending over six years. The new expenditures focus on bolstering the rickety healthcare system, keeping up with the US on new clean-technology incentives, and helping low-income Canadians to deal with rising prices and a slower economy.
Tax revenues are expected to slow with the weaker economy. The result is a much higher deficit each year through 2028 and no prospect of a balanced budget over the five-year horizon.
The budget outlines significant increases to healthcare spending, including more cash for provincial governments announced earlier this year and a $13-billion dental-care plan that Trudeau’s Liberals promised in exchange for support in parliament from the New Democratic Party.
Freeland is also announcing substantial new green incentive programs to compete with the Inflation Reduction Act signed into US law last year by President Joe Biden. The most significant new subsidy in the budget is an investment tax credit for clean electricity producers. Still, it also includes credits for carbon capture systems, hydrogen production, and clean-energy manufacturing.
The budget promises $31.3 billion in new healthcare spending and $20.9 billion in new green incentive spending by 2028. On top of that is $4.5 billion in affordability measures, half of which is for an extension of a sales tax credit for low-income Canadians.
The spending is partially offset by tax increases on financial institutions and wealthy Canadians and a pledge to reduce government spending on travel and outside consultants. Freeland is planning to raise billions of dollars from banks and insurance companies by changing the tax rules for dividends they get from Canadian firms. The new tax will apply to shares held as mark-to-market assets, not dividends paid from one subsidiary to another.
Wealthy Canadians pay the alternative minimum or regular tax, whichever is higher. The government announced in the budget that it is increasing the alternative minimum rate to 20.5 percent from 15 percent starting in 2024. Ottawa is also imposing new limits on many exemptions, deductions and credits that apply under the system beginning in 2024.
“We’re making sure the very wealthy and our biggest corporations pay their fair share of taxes, so we can afford to keep taxes low for middle-class families,” Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said in the prepared text of her remarks.
Canada’s debt-to-GDP ratio will worsen next year, despite the government’s reliance on this measure as a fiscal anchor. Debt-to-GDP will rise from 42.4% to 43.5% next year and is projected to decline very slowly over the next five years.
Not Much for Affordable Housing
The budget included a laundry list of measures the federal government has taken to make housing more affordable for Canadians.
Budget 2023 announces the government’s intention to support the reallocation of funding from the National Housing Co-Investment Fund’s repair stream to its new construction stream, as needed, to boost the construction of new affordable homes for the Canadians who need them most.
But there was one initiative tucked away in a Backgrounder entitled “An Affordable Place to Call Home.” I am quoting this directly from the budget:
A Code of Conduct to Protect Canadians with Existing Mortgages
“Elevated interest rates have made it harder for some Canadians to make their mortgage payments, particularly for those with variable rate mortgages.
That is why the federal government, through the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada, is publishing a guideline to protect Canadians with mortgages who are facing exceptional circumstances. Specifically, the government is taking steps to ensure that federally regulated financial institutions provide Canadians with fair and equitable access to relief measures that are appropriate for the circumstances they are facing, including by extending amortizations, adjusting payment schedules, or authorizing lump-sum payments. Existing mortgage regulations may also allow lenders to provide a temporary mortgage amortization extension—even past 25 years.
This guideline will ensure that Canadians are treated fairly and have equitable access to relief, without facing unnecessary penalties, internal bank fees, or interest charges, which will help more Canadians afford the impact of elevated interest rates.”
We will see what OSFI has to say about this, as the details are always of paramount importance. OSFI is scheduled to announce potential changes to banking regulation to reduce bank risk. We’ve heard a lot about banking risks in recent weeks.
The budget also reduced the legal limit on interest rates. The government intends to lower the criminal rate of interest from 47% (annual percentage rate) to 35%. According to the law firm Cassels, “’Interest’ is defined broadly under the Code and includes all charges and expenses in any form, including fees, fines, penalties, and commissions.”
Bottom Line
While this was not one of the more exciting budgets, it is important that our debt-to-GDP ratio is low in comparison to other G-7 countries. It is good news that Ottawa recognizes the financial burdens facing homeowners with VRMs. If the banks can extend remaining amortizations when borrowers renew, the pressure on their pocketbooks will be markedly lower.
Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show”and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.
Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.caor at 604-802-3983.
The government of Canada just dropped its 2023 budget. Like last year, there were no major mortgage bombshells.
Below is a quick rundown of the budget updates with lending relevance.
Rate and inflation impact
We haven’t had a chance to dive deep into the inflation ramifications but suffice it to say, the budget’s projected $43 billion of new deficit spending over six years won’t help keep inflation and mortgage rates down.
Nor will federal debt, as a proportion of GDP, climbing from 42.5% to 43.5%.
On a positive note, however:
Government bond issuance is expected to drop 7% this year (less supply keeps rates lower, other things equal)
Federal debt-to-GDP is projected to decline from 43.5% to 39.9% by 2027-29 (although, government debt forecasts and long-range weather forecasts have much in common).
In practice, the effects of this government over-borrowing won’t be noticeable to your average Joe borrower — and that’s what our leaders count on.
What is noticeable is the fact that high inflation has hammered home sales (-40%) and average national prices (-18.9%, per CREA) since the February 2022 peak.
The budget states:
“Continued progress on reducing inflation will be needed over the coming year to ensure that this period of elevated inflation is only temporary. As a result, there remains uncertainty about how long interest rates around the world will need to remain elevated.”
For what it’s worth, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the measures in her budget are “carefully targeted” to avoid stoking inflation.
New lending-related policies
Here’s what the Liberals have proposed:
Usury adjustment: The government intends to lower the criminal rate of interest from 47% (annual percentage rate) to 35%. According to the law firm Cassels, “’Interest’ is defined broadly under the Code and includes all charges and expenses in any form, including fees, fines, penalties, and commissions.”
Distressed mortgagor relief: The Financial Consumer Agency of Canada will publish a guideline to “ensure that federally regulated financial institutions provide” mortgage borrowers with relief if they hit hard times, including extending amortizations, adjusting payment schedules, or authorizing lump-sum payments. The government says this guideline “will ensure that Canadians are treated fairly and have equitable access to relief, without facing unnecessary penalties, internal bank fees, or interest charges…” In practice, most mainstream lenders and all default insurers already offer such borrower “workout” programs. This measure would seemingly formalize and publicize it, potentially leading to higher non-payment rates (as more Canadians take advantage of perceived lender leniency).
Lower CMB costs: The government “intends to undertake market consultations” by the fall on consolidating Canada Mortgage Bond issuance within the government’s regular bond issuance program. The goal is to “reduce” the cost of CMBs, which cost more to issue (carry higher yields) despite having the same credit rating as regular government bonds. The Department of Finance says it would “reinvest savings into important affordable housing programs.”
FHSA to launch in four days: The government reiterates that financial institutions can start offering the Tax-Free First Home Savings Account on April 1, 2023. The FHSA is meant to help first-timers save for a down payment. It’s a new registered plan that allows first-timers to save $40,000 total ($8,000 a year) on a tax-free basis. Contributions will be tax-deductible, and withdrawals to purchase a first home will be non-taxable. “Tax-free in; tax-free out,” they say. The handful of big banks we spoke with claim they’ll have FHSA account applications available on launch day, but not through all channels (some will only offer applications online as of April 1, and not via human advisors). Here’s an FHSA example from the Budget:
Here’s an overview from RBC that compares all the registered plans.
Anticlimax…
All in all, this budget was mostly a non-event for Canada’s mortgage market. And that may be a good thing.
Albeit, it was all crickets for hoped-for measures like raising the default insurance property value limit to $1.25 million. The government now seems to view this idea, a policy it promised a few years ago, as a stimulus measure. As a result, average-priced homes in cities like Toronto and Vancouver will remain accessible solely to uninsured borrowers, those blessed with big down payments.
(This article is courtesy of Mortgage Logic)
Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show”and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.
Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.caor at 604-802-3983.
Housing Marketing Could Be Poised For a Spring Rebound
The Canadian Real Estate Association says home sales in February bounced 2.3% from the previous month. Homeowners and buyers were comforted by the guidance from the Bank of Canada that it would likely pause rate hikes for the first time in a year.
The Canadian aggregate benchmark home price dropped 1.1% in February, the smallest month-to-month decline of rapid interest rate increases in the past year. The unprecedented surge in the overnight policy rate, from a mere 25 bps to 450 bps, has not only slowed housing–the most interest-sensitive of all spending–but has now destabilized global financial markets.
In the past week, three significant US regional financial institutions have failed, causing the Fed, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Treasury to take dramatic action to assure customers that all money in both insured and uninsured deposits would be refunded and the Fed would provide a financial backstop to all financial institutions.
Stocks plunged on Monday as the flight to the safe haven of Treasuries and other government bonds drove shorter-term interest rates down by unprecedented amounts. With the US government’s reassurance that the failures would be ring-fenced, markets moderately reversed some of Monday’s movements.
But today, another bogeyman, Credit Suisse, rocked markets again, taking bank stocks and interest rates down even further. All it took was a few stern words from Credit Suisse Group AG’s biggest shareholder on Wednesday to spark a selloff that spread like wildfire across global markets.
Credit Suisse’s shares plummeted 24% in the biggest one-day selloff on record. Its bonds fell to levels that signal deep financial distress, with securities due in 2026 dropping 20 cents to 67.5 cents on the dollar in New York. That puts their yield over 20 percentage points above US Treasuries.
For global investors still, on edge after the rapid-fire collapse of three regional US banks, the growing Credit Suisse crisis provided a new reason to sell risky assets and pile into the safety of government bonds. This kind of volatility unearths all the investors’ and institutions’ missteps. Panic selling is never a good thing, and traders are scrambling to safety, which means government bond yields plunge, gold prices surge, and households typically freeze all discretionary spending and significant investments. This, alone, can trigger a recession, even when labour markets are exceptionally tight and job vacancies are unusually high.
Canadian bank stocks have been sideswiped despite their much tighter regulatory supervision. Fears of contagion and recession persist. Job #1 for the central banks is to calm markets, putting inflation fighting on the back burner until fears have ceased.
Larry Fink, CEO of Blackrock, reminded us yesterday that previous cycles of rapid interest rate tightening “led to spectacular financial flameouts” like the bankruptcy of Orange County, Calif., in 1994, he wrote, and the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s and ’90s. “We don’t know yet whether the consequences of easy money and regulatory changes will cascade throughout the US regional banking sector (akin to the S.&L. crisis) with more seizures and shutdowns coming,” he said.
So it is against that backdrop that we discuss Canadian housing. The past year’s surge in borrowing costs triggered one of the record’s fastest declines in Canadian home prices. Sales were up in February, the markets tightened, and the month-over-month price decline slowed.
New Listings
The number of newly listed homes dropped 7.9% month-over-month in February, led by double-digit declines in several large markets, particularly in Ontario.
With new listings falling considerably and sales increasing in February, the sales-to-new listings ratio jumped to 58.4%, the tightest since last April. The long-term average for this measure is 55.1%.
There were 4.1 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of February 2023, down from 4.2 months at the end of January. It was the first time the measure had shown any sign of tightening since the fall of 2021. It’s also a whole month below its long-term average.
Home Prices
The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was down 1.1% month-over-month in February 2023, only about half the decline recorded the month before and the smallest month-over-month drop since last March.
The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI sits 15.8% below its peak in February 2022.
Looking across the country, prices are down from peak levels by more than they are nationally in most parts of Ontario and a few parts of British Columbia and down by less elsewhere. While prices have softened to some degree almost everywhere, Calgary, Regina, Saskatoon, and St. John’s stand out as markets where home prices are barely off their peaks. Prices began to stabilize last fall in the Maritimes. Some markets in Ontario seem to be doing the same now.
The table below shows the decline in MLS-HPI benchmark home prices in Canada and selected cities since prices peaked a year ago when the Bank of Canada began hiking interest rates. More details follow in the second table below. The most significant price dips are in the GTA, Ottawa, and the GVA, where the price gains were spectacular during the Covid-shutdown.
Bottom Line Last month I wrote, “The Bank of Canada has promised to pause rate hikes assuming inflation continues to abate. We will not see any action in March. But the road to 2% inflation will be a bumpy one. I see no likelihood of rate cuts this year, and we might see further rate increases. Markets are pricing in additional tightening moves by the Fed.
There is no guarantee that interest rates in Canada have peaked. We will be closely monitoring the labour market and consumer spending.”
Given the past week’s events, all bets are off regarding central bank policy until and unless market volatility abates and fears of a global financial crisis diminish dramatically. Although the overnight policy rates have not changed, market-driven interest rates have fallen precipitously, which implies the markets fear recession and uncontrolled mayhem. As I said earlier, job #1 for the Fed and other central banks now is to calm these fears. Until that happens, inflation-fighting is not even a close second. I hope it happens soon because what is happening now is not good for anyone.
Judging from experience, this could ultimately be a monumental buying opportunity for the stocks of all the well-managed financial institutions out there. But beware, markets are impossible to time, and being too early can be as painful as missing out.
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