Soft Jobs Report Weakens Impetus for Further Bank of Canada Rate Hikes

General Angela Calla 3 Nov

Weak October Jobs Report Likely Takes Further BoC Rate Hikes Off The Table

Today’s StatsCanada Labour Force Survey for October was weak across the board. Total job gains were meagre, full-time jobs fell, hours worked were flat, wage inflation eased (a bit), and the unemployment rate rose.

Employment changed little in October, up only 17,500 (0.1%), after rising 64,000 in September and 40,000 in August. The employment rate—the proportion of the working-age population with a job—fell 0.1 percentage points to 61.9% in October, as the population aged 15 and older increased by 85,000 (+0.3%).

Most notably, the unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage points to 5.7%–its fourth monthly increase in six months and its highest level in 21 months, adding evidence to a weakening economy. The latest monthly GDP figures released earlier this week point to a flat to negative growth rate for the third quarter this year. Final data will be released later this month, but today’s numbers suggest that the overnight policy rate at 5.0% has peaked. The pace of employment gains is running below labour force growth from record population increases. It indicates that labour demand is cooling while supply is catching up quickly. The Bank of Canada expects the economy to move into modest excess supply in the fourth quarter, helping to reduce consumer price inflation.

As unemployment has increased and job vacancies have decreased in recent months, the labour force participation rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 and older that was either employed or looking for work—has remained relatively high. The participation rate in October (65.6%) was unchanged from the previous month and up 0.2 percentage points on a year-over-year basis.

The most significant job gains were in construction, rising by 23,000, more than offsetting a decline of 18,000 in September. The most economically sensitive sectors posted job losses. These included manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, finance, insurance, real estate, and rental and leasing, as well as accommodation and food services.

Wage inflation continues to be troubling for the central bank. On a year-over-year basis, average hourly wages rose 4.8% in October, following an increase of 5.0% in September.

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada meets once again on December 6th. Before then, we will see another CPI inflation report on November 21, Q3 GDP on November 30 and the November Labour Force Survey on December 1. Given the Bank’s general reluctance to hike rates just before the holiday season, the Bank of Canada will remain on the sidelines.

Judging by today’s weaker-than-expected employment report in the US as well, the Fed will also hold their pause for the remainder of this year.

Rate relief, however, is still many months away. The central banks will want to see inflation at 2% with the belief that it will remain there before they begin to cut interest rates. That will happen, but probably not before next summer. According to Bloomberg News, “Traders in overnight swaps brought forward their expectations for when the Bank of Canada will start loosening policy, and are now betting policymakers will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in July, from September a day ago.”

Article courtesy of Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

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Dreaming of Home Ownership…

General Angela Calla 30 Oct

Dreaming of home ownership but need help saving for a down payment? Between current home prices and inflation, it can feel challenging. But the good news is that first-time homebuyers can use both an FHSA and the HBP to optimize their saving.

An FHSA allows you to contribute up to $8,000 a year, to a lifetime maximum of $40,000. All of this plus any growth from your investments can be used for a down payment. If you’re eligible, the HBP allows you to withdraw up to $35,000 tax-free from your RRSP to buy your first home. You just have to make sure you repay the funds to your RRSP within 15 years.

Depending on how you set your investment goals, combining the money from your FHSA and HBP means you can potentially save $75,000 or more for a down payment. Remember, this is per person. If you and your partner are both eligible, together you can potentially save over $150,000 for your first home.

The key is starting early. The more time you give yourself to save and grow your investments, the easier it will be for you to reach your savings goal. We will make an introduction to an advisor that can help you get on the path to making your homeownership dreams a reality.

604-802-3993
angela@countoncalla.ca
www.angelacalla.ca

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Reverse Mortgage Information

General Angela Calla 27 Oct

A reverse mortgage in Canada is a financial product designed for homeowners aged 55 and older that allows them to access a portion of their home’s equity without having to sell or move out of the property. This type of loan enables homeowners to convert part of their home equity into tax-free cash, typically in the form of a lump sum, periodic payments, or a combination of both.

Key points about reverse mortgages in Canada include:

Eligibility: Homeowners must be at least 55 years old and own their primary residence outright or have a significant amount of equity in their home.

Loan Repayment: The loan does not require monthly mortgage payments. Instead, the loan, including interest and fees, is typically repaid when the homeowner moves out, sells the home, or passes away. The loan amount increases over time as interest accrues.

Loan Limits: The maximum amount that can be borrowed is determined based on factors such as the homeowner’s age, property value, and location.

Interest Rates and Fees: Interest rates for reverse mortgages in Canada are often higher than traditional mortgage rates. Additional fees, such as closing costs and servicing fees, may apply.

Counseling and Legal Requirements: Potential borrowers are required to seek independent legal advice and counseling before obtaining a reverse mortgage to ensure they understand the terms, implications, and alternatives.

Regulation: Reverse mortgages in Canada are regulated to protect homeowners and ensure transparency in the lending process. The regulations provide certain safeguards and guidelines to protect the interests of borrowers.

It’s crucial for individuals considering a reverse mortgage in Canada to thoroughly understand the terms, associated costs, and the potential impact on their home equity and inheritance.

Below are some images related to a reverse mortgage product. For further information for your specific needs, please reach out to callateam@countoncalla.ca or 604-802-3983.

Financial Illustration

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Navigating High-Interest Rates: Your Path to Informed Homeownership & Mortgage Renewal

General Angela Calla 25 Oct

High-interest rates can pose unique challenges for homeowners.

To navigate this landscape effectively, it’s crucial to understand the strategies that can help you make informed decisions.

Joining the Afternoon Show with Jill Bennett, we discussed key factors such as payment strategy, frequency, mortgage type regular and reverse, and amortization extending. Listen to the segment HERE

However, for personalized advice tailored to your unique situation, there’s no substitute for reaching out to The Angela Calla Mortgage Team directly at angela@countoncalla.ca or 604-802-3983.

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Should you refinance your mortgage with todays high rates?

General Angela Calla 20 Oct

Should you refinance your mortgage with todays high rates?

Refinancing your mortgage can be an excellent way to pay off high-interest credit card and other consumer debt, improve your household cash flow, complete projects/home renovations, contribute to your retirement plan or children’s education, and many other purposes.

We have dedicated ourselves to education over the last 20 years as Canadians prior to understanding the true cost of borrowing believed rates should be the primary focus, but not the be-all-end-all, and does require some perspective. I write all about this in my book, The Mortgage Code – that can be purchased here on Amazon or Audible.

We had one client when purchasing the family home say “I’d sell my mother-in-law to save an extra 0.25% on my mortgage rate.”

However, after 5 or 10 years of being a homeowner, there are almost always unforeseen expenses such as, but not limited to, kids, pets, repairs, family, bills, and the list goes on and on and on. When you are facing high consumer credit card balances and interest rates, we will argue that cash flow becomes the top priority and not the mortgage interest rate. While mortgage rate will always be a factor, it becomes less and less important.

In 2023, inflation and rising interest rates have put so much pressure on household budgets (especially if you have a variable or adjustable rate mortgage).

If your home has increased in value and you have enough equity in your property, you may be able to consolidate all of your debt into a new mortgage and help your household cash flow.

Keep in mind, that there will be costs associated when refinancing your mortgage.

1. Your existing mortgage will most likely have at minimum a 3-month interest penalty

2. There may and most likely be a legal cost to re-register the mortgage.

3. An appraisal may be required

4. Long-term interest costs. In most refinances, more time will be added to the mortgage, the mortgage payment will increase to accommodate all of the debt payouts and the long-term interest cost will also increase.

You will need to weigh the costs and the benefits to see what is right for your own personal situation. However, if you can free up $1,000 – $3,000 per month in household cash flow, it could be a real benefit to your family and their lifestyle.

Example of current rates *OAC:

5-year fixed insured: 5.39%

5-year conventional: 5.94%

5-year variable Insured – 6.30%

HELOC: Prime + 0% or 7.20%

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Coles Notes at Mortgage Conference from Economists

General Angela Calla 19 Oct

Cole’s Notes on our Annual MPC conference

Inflation is a lagging indicator

Bank of Canada will choose a recession over high inflation (Central Banks worldwide are seen as inflation fighters)

Bank of Canada would rather overshoot (increase more than needed and/or stay higher for longer than needed) despite the economic risk that presents

Currently, the odds of BoC overshooting is 80%

GDP is down 3% on a per capita basis right now

Immigration and $165 Billion in excess savings have saved the economy up until now

Savings have been depleted and people are relying more on credit resulting in more effective monetary policy re higher rates.

With GICS offering over 5%, even those with savings aren’t spending as much as they look to buy GICs with higher returns than what we have seen for years

Spread between BoC and US Fed Reserve is currently only 25bps where typically the spread is 75bps (with Canada being lower)

BoC is more effective with rate increases as Canadians carry more debt and are subject to rate increases sooner (US has 30 year rate terms while we are typically 1-5 year fixed)

Canada has the lowest rate of inflation of the G7 nations (due to our high debt loads and shorter rate terms)

During Covid, about 80% of inflation was driven by supply chain issues – these are now resolved – monetary policy has no impact on supply chain. Retailers used supply chain as an excuse to increase prices and improve profits

Today, 80% of inflation is cause by demand making monetary policy more effective and retailers profit margins are shrinking

80% of the cost of services is wages – labour market is finally normalizing and wage growth is slowing. Fewer people are quitting jobs and changing industries.

Predictions:
Ben predicts that if month over month inflation today comes in at > 2%, expect a rate increase on the 25th – said as of yesterday, odds are 50/50

He expects the overnight rate will settle around 3% (currently 5%) with the first decreases beginning in Jun/July 2024

57% of ALL mortgages in Canada renew in 2025/2026- Rates MUST come down or we are in deep trouble

Expect prices to be under pressure over the next 6 months. More listings with fewer qualified buyers

Don’t expect to see improvements to affordability

Foreign Student population is mis-counted by 250,000 people – when asked where their primary residence is by Stats Can, many report their home country despite living in Canada AND, it’s assumed they will leave the country within 30 days of student visa expiring. Some leave, but many remain applying for extensions, PR, work permits – this accounts for another approx. 750,000 people not being counted

Unless the government gets a handle on housing, there could be rental strikes, civil unrest, increased anti-immigration sentiment. Removing GST on purpose built rentals helps, but not enough. Projects (rental and owner-occupied) suffer lengthy delays exacerbating issues.

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Speaking Engagements – Angela Calla Mortgage Team

General Angela Calla 18 Oct

This October The Angela Calla Mortgage Team was speaking with a group of lawyers whom areas of practice range from

Real Estate Conveyancing, Family Law, Wills & Estates and Corporate Law

In this high level overview of our everchanging economic market we discussed

How lenders determine and offer interest rates

What the difference is among lenders and how that impacts borrowers long term

How those who are Navigating Divorce can find better solutions and work on what matters for there future qualifications.

How Self Employed Canadians don’t have to put purchases on hold and are ready sooner rather than later with the right mortgage product, and math breakdown.

How Debt Consolidation benefits borrowers cashflow

How a Reverse Mortgage can best to utilized as a wealth building and protecting tool, to navigate divorce, help children, help business owners, and cover healthcare needs while

Why Mortgage Insurance s offered from lenders, broker and planners and how they differ. Also its usage with Buy & Sell Agreements and review in Divorce /Estate Planning

What the banks agenda is with certain offerings vs actual consumer value.

Private Mortgages, when should someone not take them, or when should they.

If you are a professional firm who advises clients on any of the above, please reach out to us directly for educational opportunities for the clients you support to improve the financial literacy of our community

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Canadian Inflation Dips to 3.8% Keeping BoC On The Sidelines

General Angela Calla 17 Oct

Good News On the Inflation Front Suggests Policy Rates Have Peaked

Today’s inflation report for September was considerably better than expected, ending the three-month rise in inflation. Not only did the headline inflation rate fall, but so did the core measures of inflation on a year-over-year basis and a three-month moving average basis. This, in combination with the weak Business Outlook Survey released yesterday, suggests that the overnight policy rate at 5% may be the peak in rates. While I do not expect the Bank to begin cutting rates until the middle of next year, the worst of the tightening cycle may well be over.

Offsetting the deceleration in the all-items CPI was a year-over-year increase in gasoline prices, which rose faster in September (+7.5%) compared with August (+0.8%) due to a base-year effect. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 3.7% in September, following a 4.1% increase in August. Looking ahead to the October inflation report, the base effect for headline CPI is favourable, as CPI surged in October 2022. Gasoline prices are down about 7% so far this month. Given the war in the Middle East, however, there is no guarantee that this will hold, but if it does, the October headline CPI could move into the low-3% range.

On a monthly basis, the CPI fell 0.1% in September after a 0.4% gain in August. The monthly slowdown was mainly driven by lower month-over-month prices for gasoline (-1.3%) in September. Goods inflation fell 0.3% from a month earlier, the first time since December 2022, and grew 3.6% from a year ago versus 3.7% in August. Services inflation was unchanged from August, the first time it hasn’t grown on a monthly basis since November 2021, while the rate slowed to 3.9% on a yearly basis, from 4.3% in August.

Yesterday’s Survey of Consumer Expectations showed that perceptions of current inflation remain well above actual inflation. One reason is the very visible level of grocery and gasoline prices. As the chart below shows, food inflation–though still elevated–decelerated to 5.9% last month, and CPI excluding food and energy fell to a cycle-low 2.8%. Large monthly gains in September 2022, when grocery prices increased at the fastest pace in 41 years, fell out of the 12-month movements and put downward pressure on the indexes.

Prices for durable goods rose at a slower pace year over year in September (+0.4%) compared with August (+1.4%). The purchase of new passenger vehicles index contributed the most to the slowdown, rising 1.7% year over year in September, following a 3.1% gain in August. The deceleration in the price of new passenger vehicles was partly attributable to improved inventory levels compared with a year ago.

Additionally, furniture prices (-4.6%) and household appliances (-2.3%) continued to decline year-over-year in September, contributing to the slowdown in durable goods. Consumers paid less on a year-over-year basis for air transportation (-21.1 %) in September, coinciding with a gradual increase in airline flights over the previous 12 months.

Other measures of core inflation followed by the Bank of Canada also decelerated.

Bottom Line

According to Bloomberg News calculations, “A three-month moving average of underlying price pressures that Governor Tiff Macklem has flagged as key to policymakers’ thinking fell to an annualized pace of 3.67%, from 4.29% a month earlier.” While this is still well above the Bank’s 2% target, the global economy is slowing, the Canadian and US economies are slowing, and with any luck at all, the Bank of Canada might see inflation move to within its target range next year. However, the central bank will be cautious, refraining from rate cuts until the middle of next year. The full impact of rate hikes has yet to be felt. The next move by the Bank of Canada could be a rate cut, but not until next year.

Article courtesy of Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

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Legislation introduced to rein in short-term rentals, deliver more homes for people

General Angela Calla 16 Oct

Legislation introduced to rein in short-term rentals, deliver more homes for people

Turning short-term rentals into homes for people is at the core of newly introduced legislation to regulate the rapidly expanding short-term rental market.

“Anyone who’s looking for an affordable place to live knows how hard it is, and short-term rentals are making it even more challenging,” said Premier David Eby. “The number of short-term rentals in B.C. has ballooned in recent years, removing thousands of long-term homes from the market. That’s why we’re taking strong action to rein in profit-driven mini-hotel operators, create new enforcement tools and return homes to the people who need them.”

Short-term rental listings on online platforms (which may include, for example, Airbnb, VRBO, Expedia, FlipKey) have expanded rapidly over recent years. Data shows that it continues to surge since the COVID-19 pandemic. B.C.’s short-term rental market is now at an all-time high, diverting thousands of long-term rental homes onto the short-term market. Currently, there are approximately 28,000 daily active short-term rental listings in B.C., an increase of 20% from a year ago. Data indicates that more than 16,000 entire homes are being listed as short-term rentals for the majority of a calendar year.

“The short-term rental market is creating serious challenges in B.C. and around the world,” said Ravi Kahlon, Minister of Housing. “Operators with multiple listings are taking homes off the long-term market to make big profits while people pay the price – it can’t go on like this. The legislation is comprehensive and designed to target areas with high housing needs. It’s strong action and a thoughtful approach to tackle the growing short-term rental challenge and deliver more homes for people.”

The short-term rental market in B.C. is dominated by a small segment of profit-driven operators. Research from McGill University shows the top 10% of hosts earn nearly half of all revenue. Nearly half of all operators have multiple listings. Approximately 30 municipalities, including Vancouver, Victoria and Kelowna, have introduced short-term rental bylaws and licence fees to regulate the short-term rental market. The proposed legislation builds on those bylaws and equips municipalities with more enforcement tools.

The legislation focuses on three key areas:

increasing fines and strengthening tools for local governments;
returning more short-term rentals to long-term homes; and
establishing provincial rules and enforcement.

Changes to how short-term rentals operate will come into effect through a phased-in approach and will include:

Increasing fines and better tools for local governments:
- increasing fines for operators breaking local rules to support local municipal bylaws, and requiring short-term rental platforms to share data to strengthen local enforcement;
- requiring online short-term rental platforms to share their data with the Province, so the Province can provide that information to local governments for enforcement and support of provincial and federal tax auditing;
- requiring short-term rental platforms to include businesses licence numbers on listings where they are used by a local government, and to remove listings without them quickly to ensure local rules are being followed; and
- giving regional districts the ability to issue business licences so they can more effectively regulate short-term rentals in rural areas.

Returning more short-term rentals into long-term homes for people:
- requiring short-term rentals in B.C. to be offered only in the principal residence* of a host in municipalities with a population of 10,000 people or more
  (*principal residence plus one secondary suite or laneway home/garden suite on the property is allowed);
- forthcoming regulations will specify areas exempt from the principal residence requirement, including 14 resort regions, mountain resort areas, municipalities under 10,000 population (except those within 15 kilometres to larger municipalities), and regional district electoral areas; and
- removing legal non-conforming use protections for short-term rentals being taken advantage of by investors to support local governments’ efforts to set rules about where these units can operate in communities.

Establishing provincial rules and enforcement:
- establishing a provincial host and platform registry by late 2024 for stronger accountability; and
- launching a provincial short-term rental compliance and enforcement unit to make sure rules are being followed.

Updating how short-term rentals are operated and enforced will contribute to thousands of homes being returned to the market over the next few years, while giving smaller communities and communities that are heavily reliant on short-term-rental-related tourism some flexibility. These areas will be able to choose to opt into the principal residence requirements depending on housing pressures in their communities.

Communities on First Nations reserve land will be exempt from the legislation. Modern Treaty Nations will also be exempt from the legislation but will be able to opt into the legislation, if desired.

This proposed legislation will not apply to hotels and motels. Regulations are also being drafted to exempt additional types of properties, for example, timeshares and fishing lodges, which are not intended to be covered under the scope of the legislation.

This legislation is part of the Province’s Homes for People action plan. Announced in spring 2023, the plan builds on historic action to deliver housing since 2017, and sets out further actions to deliver the homes people need faster, while creating more vibrant communities throughout B.C.

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Understanding Your Mortgage Payments

General Angela Calla 10 Oct

Mortgage Payments:

📌Monthly mortgage payments are the most standard, and lenders use this common payment to calculate the amount you would pay on other schedules. But choosing another option can shave time off your mortgage and thousands from your interest costs. 💰💡

📌 Semi-monthly means you will divide your monthly mortgage payment in half and pay that amount twice a month. 📅✌️

📌 Biweekly means paying 26 payments yearly, once every 2 weeks. For 3 months each year (usually), you’ll need to make 3 payments in a month. ⏰💰

📌 Biweekly Accelerated means you’re paying 26 payments each year, with an extra monthly payment added into the calculation and spread out over the year’s payments. For 3 months each year (usually), you’ll need to make 3 payments in a month. On average, this payment method can take your amortization from 25 years to 22.5 years. ⚡️💸

📌 Weekly means you’re paying 52 payments each year, which is once a week. 🗓️📆

📌 Weekly Accelerated means you’re paying 52 payments each year with an extra monthly payment added into the calculation and spread out over the year’s payments. On average, this payment method can take your amortization from 25 years to 22.5 years. ⚡️📆💸

Have any mortgage related questions? I’m happy to help. 😀

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Angela Calla, AMP

Host of The Mortgage Show

General

Soft Jobs Report Weakens Impetus for Further Bank of Canada Rate Hikes

Click here to view the latest news on our blog.

Dreaming of Home Ownership…

Click here to view the latest news on our blog.

Reverse Mortgage Information

Click here to view the latest news on our blog.

Navigating High-Interest Rates: Your Path to Informed Homeownership & Mortgage Renewal

Click here to view the latest news on our blog.

Should you refinance your mortgage with todays high rates?

Click here to view the latest news on our blog.

Coles Notes at Mortgage Conference from Economists

Click here to view the latest news on our blog.

Speaking Engagements – Angela Calla Mortgage Team

Click here to view the latest news on our blog.

Canadian Inflation Dips to 3.8% Keeping BoC On The Sidelines

Click here to view the latest news on our blog.

Legislation introduced to rein in short-term rentals, deliver more homes for people

Legislation introduced to rein in short-term rentals, deliver more homes for people

Click here to view the latest news on our blog.

Understanding Your Mortgage Payments

Click here to view the latest news on our blog.

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