As expected, the Bank of Canada held its key overnight rate this morning at 1.5%, asserting that July’s surprising spike in CPI inflation to 3% was in large part because of a jump in airfares. The Bank expects inflation to move back towards 2% in early 2019, as the effects of past increases in gasoline prices dissipate. The Bank’s core measures of inflation remain firmly around 2%, consistent with an economy that has been bumping up against full capacity for some time. Wage growth, as well, remains moderate.

Incoming information on the global economy is consistent with the Bank’s forecast in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The U.S. economy has been particularly strong, growing at a 4.2% rate in the second quarter. This compares to Canada’s growth rate of 2.9% last quarter, which follows a 1.4% pace of economic expansion in Q1. Second quarter growth in the U.S. was boosted by strong consumer spending and business investment. In Canada, third quarter growth is expected to slow temporarily, mainly because of fluctuations in energy production and exports.

Indeed, this morning, Statistics Canada reported that Canada’s trade deficit all but disappeared. A sharp export gain to the U.S. combined with a decline in imports took Canada’s overall merchandise trade deficit to its lowest level since December 2016.

Canada’s merchandise trade surplus with the U.S., targeted by President Donald Trump in NAFTA negotiations, grew to the widest in a decade. Stats Canada said that gains in global exports were led by automobiles and energy, almost all of which were bound for the U.S. Crude oil led the energy gains as prices rose 9.4% in July. The import decline was driven by aircraft and metal ores.

These figures are likely to impact the resumption of bilateral talks in Washington regarding NAFTA, as the Trump administration has negotiated a new deal with Mexico and has threatened to leave Canada out and impose stiff auto tariffs if Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government does not make concessions, especially on dairy supply management and dispute mechanisms.

The Bank of Canada highlighted that “elevated trade tensions remain a key risk to the global outlook and are pulling some commodity prices lower…The Bank is also monitoring the course of NAFTA negotiations and other trade policy development closely, and their impact on the inflation outlook.”

It was wise of the Bank of Canada to hold its powder dry at today’s policy meeting given the continued uncertainty on the NAFTA front. An agreement on NAFTA would provide the central bank with more comfort in moving ahead with a hiking cycle that has already lifted the benchmark overnight rate four times since mid-2017.

Noting that “activity in the housing market is beginning to stabilize as households adjust to higher interest rates and changes in housing policies”, the Bank reaffirmed that the economy is doing well enough to require higher interest rates in the future to achieve the inflation target. Another rate hike could come as soon as the next policy meeting on October 24th.

It is widely expected that a NAFTA deal will have come to fruition by then, opening the way for the Bank to resume monetary tightening. According to Bloomberg News, “Investors see near-certain odds that by October, the Bank of Canada will raise borrowing costs for the fifth time since the hiking cycle began in July 2017, with as many as two additional increases by mid-2019.”

– Dr. Sherry Cooper

The Angela Calla Mortgage Team gives you clarity on the best mortgage by being transparent, unbiased free mortgage advice with choice. We are here to help you personally with your mortgage at 604-802-3983 or callateam@dominionlending.ca

It’s a topic not a lot of people want to talk about: Death. It’s especially not something people want to think about as they get ready to sign a mortgage. This should be an exciting time, and the last thing you want to be thinking about is your mortality. We’ve either dealt with our own sudden tragic loss, or have heard the stories of someone who has. We’ve also heard stories of the people who didn’t have insurance.

The majority of people skip over getting mortgage insurance for two reasons: they don’t want to spend the money, or they already have some type of life insurance policy through work.

Let’s address the first. No one wants to spend more money than they have too. And if you’re single and don’t have any children to care for, maybe mortgage insurance isn’t for you.

But if you have spouse and kids, you need to think about whether they can carry on with the mortgage payment. If they can’t they’ll be forced to sell.

For a few dollars a month extra, it may not be a bad idea.

There are also a number of different policies that could work for your budget. Manulife’s Mortgage Protection Plan offers you immediate insurance and can be canceled at any given time.

While you think you may be covered through your work, you need to take a closer look at the policy.

Mortgage insurance is a debt replacement while life insurance is an income replacement. You need to understand the difference. You also need to see just how much you’re going to get through your policy. Unless you’re a police officer or firefighter, you may end up being surprised just how little you end up with at the end of the day.

And statistically speaking, if you’re a younger person, you’re more likely to be injured and disabled, at least consider the disability portion of the mortgage insurance.

When your mortgage broker asks you to consider mortgage insurance, it’s easy to dismiss the conversation, but don’t. You may be saving your loved ones even more pain and grief if something should happen to you down the road.

Angela Calla, Mortgage Expert, AMP of the Year in 2009 has been helping British Columbian families save money with the best mortgage strategy for over a decade from her Port Coquitlam office location. She is a regular contributor to national and regional media outlets and long-time host of The Mortgage Show on CKNW Saturdays at 7pm, and sits on many advisory boards for mortgage lenders and insures.

There’s little doubt, the biggest purchase in your life will be a home. So when you’re embarking on what can be both an exciting and stressful journey, you want the best professionals by your side. When it comes to picking a broker to handle your mortgage, it’s not always easy to decide who to choose.

There are roughly 18,000 mortgage professionals in Canada. While most are honorable and great at their job, it’s important to find the broker that works best for you.

Nowadays, there’s plenty of information or reviews on any given broker at your fingertips. While those searches can give you pretty good insight into a potential broker, there’s a few things you also might want to consider that can help make that decision a little easier.

As brokers, we spend a lot time using our industry jargon because it comes natural to us. We work in it every day. But for the average person, some of the terms in a mortgage can be downright confusing. And in a lot of situations, people don’t want to speak up because they don’t want to sound dumb. Look for a broker who is going to keep it simple for you, so you understand exactly what you’re getting in your mortgage.

Ultimately, it comes down to the mortgage product. But don’t be blinded by a broker who is selling you on a rate and making promises to pay for fees. It’s a big red flag. If they say they’re going to pay for everything, they’re desperate for anything.

Of course the rate matters, but the characteristics of your mortgage matter more and could end up costing you in the long run.

You want a broker who’s going to listen to you and ask you about your needs and future goals. Why are your plans five or 10 years from now so important? Consider that nearly 70 per cent of mortgages are broken within three years. Even if you’re sure of today, life happens and tomorrow could be different. You need to at least consider the penalties for ducking out of your mortgage early, or if it’s even portable.

The best mortgage brokers in the business will make sure they’ve got all of your bases covered, and you’re fully aware of what you’re signing onto.

Angela Calla has been a licensed mortgage broker for 14 years. She has been with Dominion Lending Centres since its inception in January 2006. Residing in Port Moody, British Columbia, Angela is a regular expert guest on several news stations, television shows, radio programs and local and national publications.  She was the AMP of the year in 2009, and has consistently been one of DLC and the industry’s top performers since 2006. She can be reached at callateam@dominionlending.ca  or 604-802-3983

Statistics Canada announced this morning that employment increased in July and the jobless rate fell .2 percentage points to 5.8%–returning to its lowest level since the 1970s posted earlier this year.

The economy added a stronger-than-expected 54,100 net new jobs last month–its most significant advance this year. This gain, however, was driven by increases in part-time work. July’s jobs surge followed the 31,800 rise in June. Both months enjoyed advances well above the 20,000 average monthly gains of the past year.
In the 12 months to July, employment grew by 246,000 (+1.3%), largely reflecting growth in full-time work (+211,000 or +1.4%). Over this period, the total number of hours worked rose by 1.3%.

The job growth last month was primarily in public sector jobs, especially in educational services mainly in Ontario and Quebec. At the national level, the rise was primarily in employment in post-secondary institutions, particularly universities, and was mostly in part-time work. The number of people working in health care and social assistance also rose, mainly in Ontario. In British Columbia, the number of people working increased by 11,000 and the jobless rate was 5.0% (see table below). Job gains were also noted in Newfoundland and Labrador, the first increase since October 2017. The number of workers declined in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, while it was little changed in other provinces.

Manufacturing jobs declined by 18,400 in contrast to the record-high jump of 90,500 in the service sector. The surge in service sector employment, however, likely reflected a technical distortion. The timing of hiring in the education sector has been volatile over the summer months in recent years causing a seasonal adjustment problem. The July spike education jobs will likely be unwound in the next two months.

Wags gains slowed during the month, with average hourly wages up 3.2% y/y compared to 3.6% y/y in June. Wage gains for permanent workers were 3%, the slowest this year.

The Canadian economy continues to run at a stronger pace than long-run potential as the labour markets continue to tighten. The jobless rate of 5.8% is below the full-employment level of 6.0%-to-6.5%. A more robust pace of hiring runs the risk of further increasing excess demand, putting upward pressure on inflation. In consequence, the Bank of Canada will continue to withdraw stimulus by gradually hiking overnight rates.

This report has raised the likelihood of another increase in the benchmark overnight rate of 25 basis points, possibly as soon as the next policy meeting in September. Inflation, however, remains at the Bank of Canada’s target of 2.0%, allowing the Bank to wait until the subsequent meeting in October.

• Dr. Sherry Cooper

Angela Calla has been a licensed mortgage broker for 14 years. She has been with Dominion Lending Centres since its inception in January 2006. Residing in Port Moody, British Columbia, Angela is a regular expert guest on several news stations, television shows, radio programs and local and national publications.  She was the AMP of the year in 2009, and has consistently been one of DLC and the industry’s top performers since 2006. She can be reached at callateam@dominionlending.ca  or 604-802-3983

The province is introducing amendments to strata property regulations in an effort to crack down on strata vacation rentals.

Under the new regulations, which will come into effect Nov. 30, strata corporations will be able to fine owners or residents not complying with short-term rental bans up to $1,000 a day.

Currently, stratas can pass bylaws banning short-term rentals, with a maximum fine of $200 per week.

In B.C., ownership in condominiums, apartments or townhouses sharing common areas is often purchased through an owners’ corporation under a strata title.

The owners elect a council that sets policy for the strata.

Ensure long-term rental stock

The province said the amendment is in part to increase the rental vacancy rate, by discouraging hosts and owners from turning their properties into short-term rentals.

“We’ve all heard the stories of renters losing their homes when units are pulled out of the rental market to be used as short-term rentals,” said Selina Robinson, Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing.

“With this change, we can ensure there is long-term rental stock for people and families who need them.”

Robinson also said short-term rentals can create “unintended consequences” for the people who make their homes in strata buildings, including “unacceptable levels of noise, damage to common property, and security issues.”

–CBC News

Angela Calla, Mortgage Expert, AMP of the Year in 2009 has been helping British Columbian families save money with the best mortgage strategy for over a decade from her Port Coquitlam office location. She is a regular contributor to national and regional media outlets and long-time host of The Mortgage Show on CKNW Saturdays at 7pm, and sits on many advisory boards for mortgage lenders and insures.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. is making changes intended to make it easier for the self-employed to qualify for a mortgage.

The national housing agency says it’s giving lenders more guidance and flexibility to help self-employed borrowers.

Self-employed Canadians may have a harder time qualifying for a mortgage as their incomes may vary or be less predictable.

CMHC is providing examples of factors that can be used to support the lender’s decision to lend to borrowers who have been operating their business for less than 24 months, or in the same line of work for less than 24 months.

It is also providing a broader range of documentation options to increase flexibility for satisfying income and employment requirements.

The changes, which apply to both transactional and portfolio insurance, will take effect Oct. 1.

CMHC chief commercial officer Romy Bowers said self-employed Canadians represent a significant part of the workforce.

“These policy changes respond to that reality by making it easier for self-employed borrowers to obtain CMHC mortgage loan insurance and benefit from competitive interest rates,” Bowers said in a statement.

–The Canadian Press

Angela Calla has been a licensed mortgage broker for 14 years. She has been with Dominion Lending Centres since its inception in January 2006. Residing in Port Moody, British Columbia, Angela is a regular expert guest on several news stations, television shows, radio programs and local and national publications.  She was the AMP of the year in 2009, and has consistently been one of DLC and the industry’s top performers since 2006. She can be reached at callateam@dominionlending.ca  or 604-802-3983

As expected, the Bank of Canada hiked its key overnight rate this morning by 25 basis points to 1.5%. What wasn’t expected was the hawkish tone of the press release which brushed aside the threat of greater protectionism, instead emphasizing the need for higher interest rates to keep inflation near its target. In today’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR), the Bank maintained its forecast for growth of the global economy. The U.S. economy, however, has proven stronger than expected, “reinforcing market expectations of higher policy rates and pushing up the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, oil prices have risen. Yet, the Canadian dollar is lower, reflecting broad-based U.S. dollar strength and concerns about trade actions.”

Canada’s economy continues to operate close to full capacity. “Household spending is being dampened by higher interest rates and tighter mortgage lending guidelines.”  The ratio of household debt to disposable income is edging down as household credit growth continues to slow (chart below).

Consumer spending growth has been slowing since mid-2017, led by a pullback in interest-sensitive components such as vehicle purchases, furniture, appliances and dwelling maintenance. With the slowdown in housing purchases, housing-related spending has also slowed.

The sensitivity of consumption and housing to interest rates is estimated to be larger than in past cycles, given the elevated ratio of household debt to disposable income. The impact of higher interest rates likely differs across categories of borrowers, with highly indebted households the most affected.

The Bank said that “Recent data suggest housing markets are beginning to stabilize following a weak start to 2018.”  The July MPR report estimates that housing will contribute a mere 0.1 percentage points to growth this year, with no contribution in 2019 and a slightly negative impact in 2020 (see Table below). The MPR elaborated that residential investment is slowing, reflecting the effects of higher interest rates and tighter mortgage rules. Resale activity contracted when the revised measures went into effect but is anticipated to improve over the next few quarters. Data on resale activity and housing starts suggest that the housing market is beginning to stabilize. The growth of new construction spending is expected to slow over the projection horizon. The new mortgage measures may cause households to purchase less-expensive residences because typical homebuyers are now more constrained in how much they can borrow.

Meanwhile, exports are buoyed by strong global demand and higher commodity prices. “Business investment is growing in response to solid demand growth and capacity pressures, although trade tensions are weighing on investment in some sectors. Overall, the Bank still expects average growth of close to 2% over 2018-2020.” This is somewhat above the Bank’s estimate of noninflationary growth at full capacity, the so-called ‘potential’ growth rate.

Inflation remains near 2%, consistent with an economy close to capacity. The Bank estimates that underlying wage growth is running at about 2.3%, slower than would be expected at full employment. The actual growth rate in wages has recently been boosted by increases in the minimum wage rate in some provinces.

These economic projections take into account the estimated impact of tariffs on steel and aluminium recently imposed by the U.S., as well as the countermeasures enacted by Canada. “Although there will be difficult adjustments for some industries and their workers, the effect of these measures on Canadian growth and inflation is expected to be modest.”

The Bank wrapped up its press release with the following statement: “Governing Council expects that higher interest rates will be warranted to keep inflation near target and will continue to take a gradual approach, guided by incoming data. In particular, the Bank is monitoring the economy’s adjustment to higher interest rates and the evolution of capacity and wage pressures, as well as the response of companies and consumers to trade actions.”

Bottom Line: This rate hike signals that the Bank of Canada is determined to bring its benchmark overnight rate back to more normal levels and that the economy is strong enough to withstand further rate increases. The Bank believes that stronger-than-expected business investment, higher oil prices and a weaker Canadian dollar offset the adverse effect of greater trade uncertainty. Exports have surprised on the upside because of strong global demand.

The mix of growth in Canada has shifted from housing and consumption to exports and business investment–the desired result of the many tightening moves introduced by the government, the central bank and the regulators to slow the rise in household debt.  The Bank believes that this shift in the composition of growth will result in a more sustainable expansion.

Markets expect the Bank to gradually hike the benchmark rate until it reaches 2% or 2-1/4% by the end of 2019–implying another 2 or 3 rate hikes by the end of next year. Governor Poloz said today at the press conference that the Bank’s assessment of the neutral rate for the benchmark is 2-1/2% to 3%, but it is uncertain how quickly we will get there.

The Governing Council of the Bank is scheduled to meet again on September 5. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on October 24, 2018.

Dr. Sherry Cooper

The Angela Calla Mortgage Team will work with you personally to ensure you get the best mortgage options contact us directly at 604-802-3983 or callateam@dominionlending.ca it’s never too early or too late to start planning to position yourself best

As expected the Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate .25%, banks are expected to follow.

View the full report here:

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/07/fad-press-release-2018-07-11/

Key Takeaways

1. Canada continues to attract business investment
2. Despite Tariffs Canadian exports are strong
3. More gradual increases to come – The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 5, 2018.- we expect an increase then as well.

To learn more about what to do if you have a variable or fixed rate see our April insiders report here http://angelacalla.ca/general/insiders-update-april-2018/

Any questions?  We are here to help.

Angela Calla, Mortgage Expert, AMP of the Year in 2009 has been helping British Columbian families save money with the best mortgage strategy for over a decade from her Port Coquitlam office location. She is a regular contributor to national and regional media outlets and long-time host of The Mortgage Show on CKNW Saturdays at 7pm, and sits on many advisory boards for mortgage lenders and insures.

With the Bank of Canada holding rates steady this April, the same is not the case for the bond market, which impacts fixed rates.

In every interest-rate market there are many factors leading to an increase and we are hoping to provide a little bit of clarity on what is happening and what it means to you and your loved ones.

At this time, we see fixed rates increasing as the bond market increases, and our economists anticipate two more Bank of Canada increases of prime rate by the end of 2018.

The full report can be viewed here: http://angelacalla.ca/general/poloz-holds-rates-sees-room-growth-rising-inflation/ & http://angelacalla.ca/general/td-bank-raises-5-year-posted-mortgage-rate-royal-bank-also-upping-rate/

Why do we note this information and how does it relate to you?

If you are in a variable rate, you will want to: 

1. Review your lock-in options by contacting us or your lender directly. Knowing it’s unlikely the prime rate will reduce and fixed rates are on the rise, there could be a sweet spot to review your options now.
2. If you decide not to lock in, it’s time to review your discount to see if a higher one can be obtained elsewhere.

Locking in won’t be for everyone, especially if you are making higher payments and your mortgage is below $300,000, which most people fit and will continue on that path. Locking in will be around 1% higher rate than you are likely presently paying.

If however rates raising another half of a percent this year and knowing you can likely lock in around 4% now is most attractive to you, this may be your time. The next announcement from the BOC on Prime Rates is May 30^th 2018

If you are in a fixed rate:

1. If you obtained your mortgage in the last year, stay put.
2. If you are looking to move up the property ladder or consolidate debt, get your application in to us ASAP so we can hold options for up to 120 days.
3. If you are up for renewal this year or know someone who is, secure your options now with us to weight out the savings prior to renewal with us keeping a watchful eye on the market.

Please reach out to us so we can help ensure you or a loved is on the right path in our ever changing market.

The Angela Calla Mortgage Team gives you clarity on the best mortgage by being transparent, unbiased free mortgage advice with choice. We are here to help you personally with your mortgage at 604-802-3983 or callateam@dominionlending.ca

Some of the last round of changes from the government regarding qualifying for a mortgage were that if you have a balance on your unsecured line of credit, then to qualify for mortgage the lenders require that we use a 3% payment of the balance of the line of credit.

Simple math is,  if you owe $10,000 we have to use $300 as your monthly payment regardless of what the bank requires as a minimum. Given that the banks hand out lines of credit on a regular basis it is not uncommon for us to see $50,000 lines of credit with balances in the $40,000 range. That amount then means we have to use $1,200 a month as a payment even though the bank may require considerably less.

So what if it is a secured line of credit? Again we have clients telling us that they don’t have a mortgage only to realize they do have a Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC). A home equity line of credit by all definition is a loan secured by property, the actual definition of a mortgage.

Again, it’s something the bank will require little more than interest payment on because it is secured. The calculation here can also upset the calculation for your next mortgage, as what is required by many lenders is to take the balance of the HELOC. Let’s say the balance is $200,000 and you convert it to a mortgage at the bench mark rate, which today is 5.34% with a 25-year amortization. That without any fees today is equal to $1202.22 per month, so what in the client’s mind may be a $400 or $500 dollar interest payment for the purpose of qualifying will be almost three times higher.

This one change to supposedly safe guard the Canadian consumer has lately been the thing we have seen stop more mortgages than just about anything else. If you have any question, contact a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage professional for answers.

Len  Lane

Angela Calla, Mortgage Expert, AMP of the Year in 2009 has been helping British Columbian families save money with the best mortgage strategy for over a decade from her Port Coquitlam office location. She is a regular contributor to national and regional media outlets and long-time host of The Mortgage Show on CKNW Saturdays at 7pm, and sits on many advisory boards for mortgage lenders and insures.