Demystifying Canadian Mortgage Rates: A Comprehensive Guide

General Angela Calla 19 Dec

Decoding the Factors Behind Canadian Mortgage Rates

  1. Economic Factors:

Mortgage rates in Canada are closely tied to the economic landscape. Factors such as inflation rates, unemployment figures, and overall economic health play a pivotal role. The Bank of Canada monitors these indicators to make decisions on the country’s benchmark interest rate, influencing mortgage rates. Fixed rates are tied to the Bond Market.

  1. Bank of Canada’s Influence:

The Bank of Canada sets the benchmark interest rate, which serves as a reference point for lenders when determining their own rates. Changes in the benchmark rate can lead to adjustments in mortgage rates, affecting borrowers across the country.

  1. Government Policy:

Government policies and regulations, including mortgage stress tests and lending restrictions, can impact the availability and affordability of mortgages. Staying informed about these policies is crucial for prospective homeowners.

Strategies for Securing the Best Mortgage Rates

  1. Maintain a Strong Credit Score:

Your credit score is a key factor in determining the interest rate you’ll be offered. A higher credit score typically translates to lower interest rates. Regularly check and improve your credit score to secure more favorable mortgage terms.

  1. Comparison Shopping:

Different lenders may offer varying mortgage rates and terms. It’s essential to shop around, comparing rates and negotiating with lenders to secure the best deal. The mortgage market is competitive, and informed borrowers can leverage this to their advantage using a mortgage professional who has the borrowers interest at heart, any one lender only sells there own products giving them a sales bias.

  1. Use a Mortgage Broker:

Mortgage brokers, like the Angela Calla Mortgage Team, can be invaluable in navigating the mortgage market. They have access to a network of lenders and can help you find the best rates based on your financial situation and goals. They shop without bias, protecting your credit score giving you the power of choice.

Empowering Yourself with The Mortgage Code

In your journey to understand and secure the best Canadian mortgage rates, a valuable resource awaits – “The Mortgage Code” by Angela Calla. This insightful book, available on Amazon, offers practical advice and insider tips from Angela Calla, a renowned mortgage expert. Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer or a seasoned homeowner, “The Mortgage Code” is a comprehensive guide that complements your knowledge, providing insights into the Canadian mortgage market.

Conclusion:

Demystifying Canadian mortgage rates is a crucial step in making informed decisions about your homeownership journey. By understanding the factors influencing rates and implementing strategic approaches, you can position yourself to secure the best possible mortgage terms. Additionally, the Angela Calla Mortgage Team and “The Mortgage Code” book serve as valuable allies in your quest for financial empowerment. As you navigate the Canadian mortgage market, empower yourself with knowledge and trusted resources to achieve your homeownership goals. Buy the book on Amazon or Audible here  https://www.amazon.ca/Mortgage-Code-Helping-Property-Mistakes-ebook/dp/B07HFHR8TV or reach out for personalized mortgage assistance 604-802-3983 or callateam@countoncalla.ca

 

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

First-Time Homebuyer’s Guide: Navigating the Canadian Real Estate Landscape

General Angela Calla 19 Dec

Embarking on the journey to homeownership is an exciting and significant step. For first-time homebuyers in Canada, navigating the real estate landscape can be both thrilling and daunting. In this comprehensive guide, we’ll provide a roadmap tailored to first-time buyers, covering crucial topics such as down payments, government incentives, and homebuyer programs. This guide aims to be your go-to resource, offering valuable insights to ensure a smooth and informed entry into the Canadian real estate market.

Understanding Down Payments

  1. The Basics:

As a first-time homebuyer in Canada, understanding down payments is fundamental. In most cases, a minimum down payment is required, typically ranging from 5% to 20% of the home’s purchase price. The larger the down payment, the lower your mortgage loan amount and monthly payments.

  1. Saving Strategies:

Start saving early for your down payment. Consider creating a dedicated savings account, exploring government-sponsored savings plans, or using financial windfalls like tax refunds or bonuses to boost your down payment fund.

Exploring Government Incentives

  1. First-Time Home Buyer Incentive (FTHBI):

The FTHBI is a federal program designed to assist first-time homebuyers by reducing their monthly mortgage payments. Eligible buyers can receive a shared-equity loan from the government, lowering the overall cost of homeownership.

  1. Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP):

The HBP allows first-time buyers to withdraw up to $35,000 from their Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP) to use towards a home purchase. This program provides a tax-friendly way to fund your down payment.

  1. First Time Home Savers (FHSA):

The First Time Home Savers account The First Home Savings Account (FHSA) is specifically designed to help first-time homebuyers save for their down payment without having to pay taxes on the interest earned on their savings.

This means that the interest earned on the savings in the account is not taxed, nor are withdrawals from the account. Plus, since your contributions to this account are not taxed, your money will have the opportunity to grow faster in an FHSA than a traditional savings account. More on this new for 2023 here https://angelacalla.ca/general/first-home-savings-account-fhsa/

Navigating Homebuyer Programs

  1. Land Transfer Tax Rebates:

Be aware of provincial land transfer tax rebates available for first-time homebuyers. These rebates can significantly reduce the upfront costs associated with purchasing a home.

  1. Mortgage Insurance Options:

Explore mortgage insurance options, especially if your down payment is less than 20%. Mortgage insurance protects lenders in case of default but also provides an opportunity for first-time buyers to enter the market with a lower down payment.

  1. Download our app to be pre qualified in seconds learning payment comfort and calculation closing costs https://www.dlcapp.ca/app/angela-calla?lang=en

The Importance of Professional Guidance

  1. Mortgage Brokers:

Consider enlisting the help of a mortgage broker, such as the Angela Calla Mortgage Team. Mortgage brokers have access to a wide range of lenders and can help you find the most suitable mortgage product for your unique financial situation.

  1. Real Estate Agents:

Work with a qualified real estate agent who specializes in first-time homebuyers. They can guide you through the process, help you find suitable properties, and negotiate on your behalf.

Conclusion:

Navigating the Canadian real estate landscape as a first-time homebuyer requires a thoughtful approach and a comprehensive understanding of key factors. By mastering the essentials of down payments, taking advantage of government incentives and homebuyer programs, and seeking professional guidance, you can embark on your homeownership journey with confidence. Remember, the Angela Calla Mortgage Team is here to support you throughout the process, ensuring that your first home purchase is a successful and rewarding experience. As you take your first steps into the world of real estate, use this guide as your compass, and embrace the exciting adventure of homeownership in Canada.

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

 

Bank of Canada Holds The Overnight Policy Rate Steady at 5% For the Third Consecutive Meeting

General Angela Calla 15 Dec

The Bank of Canada Held Rates Steady and Took A More Neutral Tone

It was widely expected that the Bank of Canada would maintain its key policy rate at 5% for the third consecutive time. It will continue to sell government securities (quantitative tightening) to normalize its balance sheet. Market participants weighed and measured each word of the BoC press release and assessed that the Bank took a less hawkish stance.

This time, the release said, “Higher interest rates are clearly restraining spending: consumption growth in the last two quarters was close to zero, and business investment has been volatile but essentially flat over the past year. Exports and inventory adjustment subtracted from GDP growth in the third quarter, while government spending and new home construction provided a boost. The labour market continues to ease: job creation has been slower than labour force growth, job vacancies have declined further, and the unemployment rate has risen modestly. Even so, wages are still rising by 4-5%. Overall, these data and indicators for the fourth quarter suggest the economy is no longer in excess demand.”

 

 

 

 

At the prior meeting in late October, the Bank said that the labour market remained “on the tight side” but acknowledged today that it was loosening. Indeed, the October Monetary Policy Report suggested that the inflation rate would not hit its 2% target level until late 2025.

Today, the tone was much more optimistic, suggesting that policymakers are increasingly confident interest rates are restrictive enough to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Still, Bank officials want to see more progress on core inflation before it begins to ease. It said, “The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been around 3½-4%, with the October data coming in towards the lower end of this range.”

The central bank focuses on “the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour” and remains resolute in restoring price stability.

Bottom Line

Bond yields peaked in early October and have fallen by nearly 100 basis points. This has led to reductions in fixed mortgage rates; however, those cuts have been far less than historical experience would have suggested, given the rally in 5-year government bonds.

Cuts in variable mortgage rates await a reduction in the overnight policy rate, which triggers a commensurate decline in the prime rate, which is currently stuck at 7.2%. I expect the BoC to begin cutting the policy rate by the middle of next year, taking it down a full percentage point to 4% by yearend

(Article courtesy of Dr. Sherry Cooper, Cheif Economist, Dominion Lending Centres)

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Canadian Housing Markets Bottoming

General Angela Calla 14 Dec

Housing Markets Prepare For A 2024 Rebound

Before we get into the details of the November housing market data released this morning by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), big positive news for housing occurred yesterday. The US Federal Reserve gave its clearest signal yet that its historic policy tightening campaign is over by projecting more aggressive interest-rate cuts in 2024. This ignited one of the biggest post-meeting rallies in bonds and stocks in recent memory. Global shares spiked higher. Short-term Treasuries posted their best day since March, while world currencies surged against the US dollar and corporate bonds rallied. Canadian markets followed suit. If anything, Canada is far more interest-sensitive than the US, and our economy is far weaker.

As the charts below show, monthly mortgage payments relative to after-tax income are far higher in Canada than in the US, even more so given the tax deductibility of mortgage interest and property taxes south of the border. The US economy grew by a whopping 5.2% in the third quarter compared to a decline of 1.1% in Canada.  Therefore, the Bank of Canada will likely cut interest rates sooner and more aggressively than in the US, improving housing affordability.

 

 

 

 

 

The CREA data for November showed a bottoming housing market. Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems edged down by 0.9% from October to November 2023, the smallest decline since July.

New Listings

Sellers move to the sidelines as well. The number of newly listed homes fell 1.8% month-over-month in November. This followed a 2.2% decline in October.

With new listings down by more than sales in November, the national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened slightly to 49.8% compared to 49.4% in October. It was the first time this measure has increased since April. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 55.1%.

There were 4.2 months of inventory nationally at the end of November 2023, up only slightly from 4.1 months at the end of October. As such, this measure also looks to be stabilizing and is still almost a full month below its long-term average of nearly five months of inventory.

The second chart below shows that we are definitely in a buyers’ market.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) declined by 1.1% month-over-month in November 2023, reflecting softer market conditions since the end of the summer. Prices often react with a slight lag, so it will be interesting to see if month-over-month declines get smaller or stop getting larger in December in response to a stabilizing demand-supply balance.

While price declines remain mainly an Ontario phenomenon, home prices are now softening in the Fraser Valley, Winnipeg, and Halifax. Elsewhere in Canada, prices are mostly holding firm or, in some cases (Alberta, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, Price Edward Island, Newfoundland and Labrador), continuing to climb. The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 0.6% on a year-over-year basis.

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada policymakers will meet again on January 24th. While it will likely be several months before the Bank begins to cut the policy rate, market-driven interest rates have fallen sharply. Fixed mortgage rates have also come down but more moderately. I expect to start easing monetary policy in the spring, taking the overnight rate down by roughly 100 bps by yearend 2024. Housing activity will strengthen in 2024 and 2025, although the economy will be burdened by a substantial rise in monthly mortgage payments as many renewals or refinancing’s rise, peaking in 2026.

(Article courtesy of Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres)

 

 

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

December Newsletter

General Angela Calla 7 Dec

Welcome to the December issue of my monthly newsletter!

As we get closer to the end of the year, we have some special New Year resolutions for your home! Plus, check out some of my favourite holiday desserts. In addition, don’t miss the latest economic insights direct from Dr. Sherry Cooper!

New Year Resolutions for Your Home

The New Year is approaching! While we are in the spirit of goal planning and setting our intentions for the coming months, don’t forget about your home!

There are several things you can do to make your home and finances work for you in 2024:

Review Your Home Budget (or make one!): Money can be a stressful subject, but creating a home budget and keeping it updated whether annually, bi-annually, or monthly can truly help you get a handle on your cash flow and what you are spending on. An annual review of your budget at minimum to account for changes in wages, loan payments, expenses and more is a great way to get 2024 off to a balanced start! This is also a good opportunity to think about future renovations, vacations or expenses so you can start a savings fund to meet your goals!

 Embrace Minimalism: Heading into January is a great time to take stock of your home and life. For many people, embracing minimalism has allowed them to declutter their minds and increase clarity to focus on what matters in life. Clearing out old furniture, clothes, or anything that doesn’t bring you peace, is a great way to live in the moment and align your home.

 Cut Your Carbon Footprint: Your home is a great place to cut energy! Everything from switching off the lights when you leave a room to dialing down your air conditioner and heating, to installing LED bulbs and energy-saving showerheads or toilets, can help you save in the long run and ensure your home is more energy-efficient for the New Year!

Get Growing: Got a green thumb or simply looking for a new hobby? Consider starting a garden at home! Whether you place large planters in your backyard, some pots on the patio, or grow some herbs in your kitchen, this can be a great way to nurture your mind and body! Plus, it adds a little extra life to your home!

Improve Your Work/Life Balance: If you are still working at home and haven’t yet nailed down a dedicated space for your office, 2024 is your year! Having a separate space for your work versus your life can help you with decluttering your brain and maximizing your time and focus both on the clock and off.

Make the Most of Your Mortgage Renewal: As discussed in our last issue, your mortgage renewal is a great opportunity to make your home put in the work for you! With lots of renewals coming up in 2024, now is the time to start thinking ahead! Choose to consolidate debt, utilize home equity, get a better rate, and more at renewal time.

 Contribute to Your RRSP: Don’t forget — February 29, 2024, is the last day to make RRSP contributions for the 2023 tax year! Before your RRSP deadline, there are a few things to consider to help you get a jump start in planning for the future and increasing your peace of mind: should you invest in an RRSP or focus on paying down your mortgage? Is a debt consolidation mortgage right for you? Should you consider the Home Buyers’ Plan to help fund your down payment on your first home?

Favourite Holiday Desserts

The holidays are a wonderful time of year for the merriment, music, lights… and treats!

You’ll need to throw out the scale for this list of scrumptious holiday dessert ideas.

Gingerbread Cookies: Did you know? The oldest recorded gingerbread recipe, dating to the 16th century, is kept in the Germanic National Museum in Nuremberg! A tried-and-true classic for a reason, gingerbread is a particularly festive go-to! Whether you create gingerbread men or a gingerbread house – or a whole town (we won’t judge!) – you need the right recipe!

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE RECIPE CARD!

Nanaimo Bars: Over the years, this delicious treat has gone by many names… The first recipe originated in the 1952 edition of the Women’s Auxiliary Nanaimo Hospital Cookbook where it was simply named “chocolate square”. A similar recipe was later published in a 1953 edition of the Edith Adams’ Cookbook with the name “Nanaimo Bar”. The recipe clipping still hangs in the Nanaimo Museum! A no-bake dessert bar, this mouth-watering treat consists of three main layers: graham wafer crumb and shredded coconut for the bottom, a custard-flavored butter icing in the middle, and a chocolate ganache on top.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE RECIPE CARD!

Peppermint Fudge: Originating in the 19th century, fudge is not necessarily new… but with so many additions to flavourings, it never gets old! This season, try one of our favourites – peppermint fudge! Easy to make and waiting to be enjoyed.

 CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE RECIPE CARD!

Peanut Brittle: Brittle is thought to be one of the first candies ever made… and there is a lot of confusion around how it came to be. Some claim it happened by accident as a New England woman was making taffy and accidentally added baking soda in 1890! Another theory dates brittle as far back as the Celts where it was enjoyed as a traditional Celtic dessert, making its way from Europe to America! Still today, peanut brittle continues to stand the test of time as a favored treat.

 CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE RECIPE CARD!

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper

As we move into yearend, we have every reason to believe that the economy has slowed and inflation, while still above target, has dropped significantly. But slower inflation does not mean falling prices in most markets. Yes, gasoline prices are down, and food inflation has slowed, but the purchasing power of households has not improved.

Consumer confidence is down as many households fear their mortgage renewals, where rising monthly payments will dig even deeper into their discretionary income.

Mortgage arrears are still at historical lows, but credit card and auto loan delinquencies are rising. Housing markets have slowed considerably, even as lenders cut their fixed mortgage loan rates. Declines in variable-rate loans generally await an easing in monetary policy by the Bank of Canada, which is still likely at least six months away.

The good news is that interest rates have likely peaked. So far, the economy is on a glide path for a ‘softish’ landing. I doubt we will see two consecutive quarters of negative growth. And, if we do, the central bank will respond sooner with rate cuts.

The fiscal authorities’ hands are tied. Many accuse Ottawa of increasing budgetary red ink too quickly over the past eight years, especially during the pandemic. Now that market-determined interest rates have risen sharply, the debt financing costs are spiking. The Liberals’ popularity is waning, and while business is calling for investment tax credits and everyone wants more affordable housing, the feds can only marginally affect these issues, given budgetary and political constraints.

The latest gimmick is to reduce short-term rentals by restricting Airbnb properties in some ways, but that will again have a meagre impact. Encouraging construction with GST elimination and cheaper credit is helpful. Still, even if they do lead to 30,000 new rental properties, that’s a drop in the bucket when planned permanent immigration is slated for 500,000 people per year.

The real rebound in economic activity is coming when the BoC signals it will cut the overnight policy rate. In the meantime, it is now a buyers’ market in many localities as home prices decline. The spring housing market could show a meaningful pickup in anticipation of lower rates and more housing supply. Motivated sellers will be out there, and buyers can pre-approve and take their time finding the right fit. The multiple-bidding wars are over. The housing market will lead the economy upward next year.

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Difference between Adjustable Rate Mortgage and Variable Rate Mortgage

General Angela Calla 4 Dec

Do you know the difference between an ARM and VRM mortgage?

An ARM (Adjustable Rate Mortgage) changes your payments when the prime rate moves, offering potential cash flow benefits when rates go down. On the other hand, VRM (Variable Rate Mortgage) maintains fixed payments despite changes in the prime rate, keeping your payments stable throughout the term. In our fluctuating interest rate environment, it’s crucial to choose the right one for your financial plan.

In 2023, many Canadians reached a trigger rate when there VRM did not cover the interest of the mortgage and were forced to pay a lump sum down, switch to a fixed rate or take out another loan. Knowing this difference will help in planning moving forward.

With our everchanging interest rate environment you want to ensure you have the right one for your financial mortgage plan! One allows you to take advantage of rates going down with improved cashflow , while the other keeps the same payment. Reach out to us directly to ensure you always have the best mortgage for you angela@countoncalla.ca 604-802-3983

Click the video to hear more!

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Canadian Employment Gains Stronger than Expected in November, While Unemployment Rose and Hours Worked Fell

General Angela Calla 1 Dec

Jobless Rates Hits 22-Month High–Led by Losses in Finance and Real Estate Employment

Today’s StatsCanada Labour Force Survey for November was a mixed bag. Total employment gains were stronger than expected. However, the rising unemployment rate and drop in hours worked were signs of mounting economic weakness, especially in the financial and real estate sectors.

Employment in Canada rose by 24.9K in November 2023, following a 17.5K rise in October and above forecasts of 15K. Employment went up in manufacturing (+28K) and construction (+16K). On the other hand, there were declines in wholesale and retail trade (-27K) and finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing (-18K). November marks the fourth consecutive month of job gains. Still, the Bank of Canada noted in its October meeting that “recent job gains have been below labour force growth and job vacancies have continued to ease,” suggesting a slowdown in labour demand. The monthly employment gain averaged 39K so far this year, while monthly population growth has averaged 80.8K.

Rapid population growth–driven by Canada’s open-door policy–has boosted economic activity. Despite dramatic tightening by the Bank of Canada, labour markets remain resilient. While yesterday’s GDP release showed a 1.1% decline in growth in the third quarter, housing, government spending and private consumption added to growth. More recent data for Q4 suggest a pick-up in overall activity. Today’s employment data shows stronger-than-expected jobs gains in November.

In other data released last week, Canadian retail sales also surprised on the high side. Consumers splurged in September and October, a surprise resurgence in spending even as high interest rates restrict household budgets. Retail receipts rose 0.8% in October. That’s the biggest jump since April and followed an unexpected 0.6% increase in September, which far exceeded the median estimate of a flat reading in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

The unemployment rate increased for the second consecutive month, continuing its upward trend since April. The unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 5.8% in November, bringing the cumulative increase since April 2023 to 0.8 percentage points. Compared with a year earlier, unemployed people in November were more likely to have been laid off from their previous job, reflecting more difficult economic and labour market conditions in 2023 compared with 2022.

In construction, employment increased by 16K (+1.0%) in November, building on an increase of 23K (+1.5%) in October. While employment declined in construction through the spring and summer of 2023, gains in October and November brought employment levels to within 15,000 of the peak reached in January 2023. According to the most recent data on building construction, investment in building construction, mainly residential building construction, trended down for most of 2023 before partially rebounding in August and September.

Employment declined by 27K (-0.9%) in wholesale and retail trade in November, adding to a drop of 22K (-0.7%) in October. As of November, employment in the industry was at its lowest since December 2022.

Employment in finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing fell by 18K (-1.3%) in November. Since July, employment in this industry has declined by 63K (-4.4%), the steepest decrease of any sector over the period.

Wage growth was steady at +4.8% y/y, still well above what the Bank of Canada targets, given the productivity decline.

On the soft side, hours worked fell 0.7% despite a significant rise in full-time employment. That’s the largest monthly drop since early 2022 and doesn’t bode well for GDP growth in the month after the surprise strength in October’s flash estimate released yesterday.

Bottom Line

Last week, Governor Tiff Macklem said interest rates may be restrictive enough to restore price stability. He added that more downward pressure on inflation is in the pipeline, with the economy expected to remain weak for the next few quarters.

All the relevant data are in now for the Bank of Canada decision next Wednesday, December 6th. The Bank should maintain its pause and suggest that monetary easing may commence in the coming months depending on a continued decline in inflation. Right now, markets are forecasting the first rate cut in April 2024. That would certainly make for a robust spring housing market. I expect a 200 basis point drop in the overnight rate by the end of 2024 to 3.0%. This would imply a commensurate decline in VRMs. Fixed mortgage rates have already begun to drop owing to the sharp decline in mid-term bond yields. An acceleration in the drop in fixed mortgage rates is likely next year, as the spread between FMRs and market yields is still historically high.

 

(Article courtesy of Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist, DLC)

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Q3 GDP Weaker Than Expected Paving The Way For Future Rate Cuts

General Angela Calla 30 Nov

The Table Is Set For Rate Cuts In 2024

The Canadian economy weakened far more than expected in the third quarter, down 1.1% annually. However, the Q2 figures were revised up significantly from a 0.2% decline to a rise of 1.4%. Such are the vagaries of economic data. The Canadian economy is contracting despite the positive impetus of rapid population growth. Household consumer spending flatlined, and the savings rate rose, confirming that the central bank’s aggressive interest-rate hikes are doing their job to slow economic activity.

Statistics Canada also released preliminary data suggesting that GDP grew 0.2% in October, boosted by residential construction and increased oil and gas extraction and retail trade, after the better-than-expected 0.1% expansion in September.

The economic contraction was broadly based. Household spending hasn’t been this weak since 2009, except during the pandemic lockdowns. In addition, business investment was particularly feeble, down 14.4% for business equipment and -7.7% for nonresidential construction. Exports also declined 5.1% over the same period.  Investment in residential construction rose 8.3% annualized, the first increase since the beginning of 2022.

Job vacancy data, also released today, posted another decline, confirming that the economy has weakened and excess demand has been eliminated. On a per capita basis, Canada’s economy has contracted for the second consecutive quarter.

Tomorrow, Statistics Canada will release the labour market report for November.

 

Bottom Line

Today’s release is welcome news for the Bank of Canada. Tiff Macklem said last week that the Bank’s interest rate hikes were doing their job to return inflation to its 2% target. The Governing Council meets once again on December 6th. We expect a more dovish press release suggesting that the policy rate has likely peaked. Market-driven interest rates have fallen sharply since early October, taking fixed mortgage rates down significantly (see chart below).

Traders in overnight swaps are betting the Bank of Canada will loosen monetary policy as early as April 2024, little changed from before the release. I expect that the Bank of Canada will gradually cut interest rates beginning in the second quarter of next year, taking the overnight rate down 200 basis points to 3.0% by year’s end.

 

 

(Article courtesy of Der. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist, DLC)

 

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Reverse Mortgage as a Retirement Tool

General Angela Calla 28 Nov

Reverse Mortgage is a valuable retirement tool.

You want to stay in the home you worked so hard to pay for, the home you raised your family in.

You are not ready to move to a retirement home.

You could use additional funds to:

–      Pay off debts

–      Handle unexpected expenses

–      Help children or grandchildren

–      Make a special trip or purchase

–      Improve day-to-day standard of living

With a reverse mortgage you can access up to 55% equity in your home and use however you wish. They are easy to qualify for and have no monthly payments.

Here is an example of how a reverse mortgage can help…..

Whitney was introduced to us to explore her options. She is receiving her government pensions, and she is widowed. She doesn’t have any other income coming in and is finding things very expensive. She would love to gift equity to her grandchildren to help with their education, she would like to take a few trips with friends, and make sure she is set up for any unexpected expenses. She is also not ready to move. She has heard negative things about reverse mortgages, she wants to leave the equity to her children as an inheritance. She set up an appointment with our team to find out more. We had a good conversation with her, explained how they work, had a great meeting with her and her children. After understanding her options and how the reverse mortgage works, she decided to proceed. We set her up and now she is living her life like she never dreamed was possible and with much more freedom.

We are free to work with. Expert guidance going into our 20th year. Located in Port Coquitlam, BC, helping individuals throughout BC and across Canada.

We look forward to hearing from you!

 

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

BC Housing Secondary Suite Incentive Program

General Angela Calla 27 Nov

What is the Secondary Suite Incentive Program?

The Secondary Suite Incentive Program will help homeowners create affordable housing in their communities. The program will provide money to help homeowners create a new secondary suite on their property to be rented out for below market value.

Homeowners who qualify will receive up to 50% of the cost of renovations, up to a maximum of $40,000. The program will provide a rebate in the form of a forgivable loan—a loan that does not need to be repaid if the homeowner follows the terms of the program.

For the loan to be forgiven, the new unit must be located on the same property where the homeowner lives and must be rented out at below market rates, set by BC Housing, for at least five years.

Check out more details here: BC Housing

Here is a simplified fact sheet : Fact Sheet

 

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

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