Angela Calla on Global News What you NEED to know Variable & Adjustable Rate Mortgages

General Angela Calla 27 Jan

In case you missed our Global News Morning segment we discussed a topic that is top of mind for many: variable and adjustable rate mortgages.

In this approx. 6 minute interview we covered…

-What exactly are variable and adjustable rate mortgages?

-The key differences between the two.

-Critical terms and factors to consider when choosing the best option for you.

If you ever wondered how these mortgage options work or how to make the most informed decision, this segment is a must-watch!

We are here to or provide a personalized review of a mortgage for you or a loved one to ensure it works for you in today’s market to build and protect your wealth please email us at callateam@countoncalla.ca or call 604-802-3983

 


Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Fall Economic Statement Delivered Despite Chrystia Freeland’s Resignation

General Angela Calla 18 Dec

 

Chrystia Freeland Resigns On The Day of The Fall Economic Statement
Finance Minister Freeland rocked markets today by submitting her resignation from Cabinet. Trudeau had asked her to take another Cabinet post, but she declined in a scathing letter accusing Trudeau of “costly political gimmicks” like “bribe-us-with-our-own-money cheques for $250 and a two-month GST holiday.

“Inevitably, our time in government will come to an end,” Ms. Freeland said, openly acknowledging what polls have been saying for over a year. “But how we deal with the threat our country currently faces will define us for a generation, and perhaps longer.”

The Federal deficit for 2023-2024 grows from $40 billion to $61.9 billion, partly boosted by a court settlement to pay funds to Indigenous children. The deficit far surpasses Freeland’s guardrail of $40.1 billion for last year’s budget deficit. New spending initiatives were announced amounting to $24 billion over the next six years. The most significant component is accelerated incentives to encourage business investment to improve productivity. This is very similar to a program issued by Finance Minister Frank Morneau years ago.

Dominic LeBlanc has been sworn in as the new Finance Minister.

Bottom Line

Today’s Fall Economic Statement took a backseat to the news that Chrytia Freeland resigned. There is more talk of a Trudeau resignation and an early election. Liberals are suggesting that Trudeau has stayed on too long, likening him to Biden. The caucus is meeting at 5 PM today.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

 


Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

 

Canadian home sales rose again in November as new listings declined and prices rose

General Angela Calla 18 Dec

The Canadian Housing Market Strengthens Further

Home sales activity recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems rose again in November, building on October’s surprise jump.

Sales were up 2.8% m/m in November compared to October and now stand a cumulative 18.4% above where they were in May, just before the first interest rate cut in early June. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity was 26% above November 2023.

The November increase was driven by gains in Greater Vancouver, Calgary, Greater Toronto, and Montreal and double-digit sales increases in smaller cities in Alberta and Ontario.

According to Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist, “Not only were sales up again but with market conditions now starting to tighten up, November also saw prices move materially higher at the national level for the first time in almost a year and a half. Normally, we might expect this market rebound to take a pause before resuming in the spring; however, the Bank of Canada’s latest 50-basis point cut together with a loosening of mortgage rules could mean a more active winter market than normal.”

New Listings

New listings edged down 0.5% month-over-month in November, building on a larger 3% decline in October. With sales also rising in November, the national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened to 59.2%, up from 57.3% in October. Between April and September this year, the measure had been in the 52% to 53% range. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 55%, with a sales-to-new listings ratio between 45% and 65%, generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions.

“October and November marked the start of the long-awaited rebound in resale housing activity, with the combination of lower borrowing costs and more properties to choose from coaxing buyers off the sidelines,” said James Mabey, CREA Chair.

A little more than 160,000 properties were listed for sale on all Canadian MLS® Systems at the end of November 2024, up 8.9% from a year earlier but still below the long-term average for that time of the year of around 178,000 listings.

There were 3.7 months of inventory nationally at the end of November 2024, down from 3.8 months at the end of October and the lowest level in 14 months. The long-term average is 5.1 months of inventory, with a seller’s market below about 3.6 months and a buyer’s market above 6.5 months.

 

 

 

 

Home Prices

The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS® HPI stood 1.2% below November 2023, the smallest decline since last April. The non-seasonally adjusted national average home price was $694,411 in November 2024, up 7.4% from November 2023.

 

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada’s aggressive rate-cutting and regulatory changes that make housing somewhat more affordable have provided kindling for the Canadian housing market. While the conflagration isn’t likely to peak until spring, a seasonally strong period for housing, activity has already started to pick up. The November uptick in home prices could provide more impetus for potential buyers to move off the sidelines. The new housing initiatives go into effect today and tomorrow.

Debt-to-income ratios for Canadian households have improved as growth in disposable incomes continues to outpace borrowing. This bodes well for more robust residential real estate activity as the Bank of Canada continues to cut rates, albeit at a slower pace. We expect quarter-point rate cuts until the overnight rate, now at 3.25%, falls to 2.5% or even lower if US tariffs are introduced.

Article Courtesy of Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist, DLC

 


Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

With rates going down, should I take an adjustable rate Mortgage?

General Angela Calla 16 Dec

Navigating the mortgage market requires more than choosing between a fixed or adjustable rate. Over my 20 years in this industry, I’ve seen how markets and lenders adapt in ways consumers might not expect. Adjustable rates can be a VERY powerful tool, but they come with complexities that borrowers must fully understand before committing.

Our approach at the Angela Calla Mortgage Team is not to say adjustable rates are bad or banks are at fault. Instead, we work to empower borrowers by presenting all qualified options and using our experience to help them make confident, informed decisions they’re comfortable with. For instance, adjustable and variable-rate mortgages often come with significant advantages such as large discounts, low compounding frequencies, and only three months of interest for penalties, as well as the flexibility to easily lock into fixed rates when needed.

Here are some important lessons from recent history that highlight the factors borrowers need to consider:

2015: BoC Rate Cuts That Didn’t Fully Benefit Borrowers

In January and July 2015, the Bank of Canada (BoC) reduced its overnight rate twice, by 0.25% each time (a total of 50 basis points). Despite this, Canadian banks only passed along 0.45% (45 basis points) of the cuts, keeping 0.30% for themselves.

This situation highlighted that central bank decisions don’t always translate directly into borrower savings. That missing 0.30% never made its way back to consumers.

2016: Independent Prime Rate Adjustment by a Major Bank

In 2016, one of Canada’s major banks introduced its own proprietary prime rate, setting it slightly higher than the industry-standard prime rate. While most adjustable-rate borrowers didn’t notice because their payments stayed the same, more of their payments were applied to interest instead of principal.

This independent adjustment demonstrated how lenders can make changes that impact borrowers in ways they may not immediately notice. Adjustable-rate mortgages, where payments change with Prime, and variable-rate mortgages, where the interest rate changes but payments may remain constant, further illustrate how adjustable rates are not all the same in mechanics or benefits.

2021-2022: Tiff Macklem’s Reassurance and the Rate Surge

In 2021, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem assured Canadians that rates would remain low for a prolonged period. This led many borrowers to choose variable-rate mortgages, believing they’d benefit from sustained savings.

However, by 2022, the BoC raised rates rapidly to combat inflation, pushing them to the highest levels in over a decade. Borrowers with adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) faced significant payment increases, while variable-rate mortgages hit trigger rates, leading to grossly extended amortization periods in some cases.

Rapid Rate Movements and Market Surcharges

When rates move quickly, lenders may also surcharge adjustable-rate offerings. For example, instead of offering Prime – 0.50%, lenders might adjust to Prime – 0.10% or even Prime + 0. This means the actual discount off prime becomes less favourable, directly impacting borrowers’ costs.

Evaluating the actual discount from prime, rather than focusing solely on the rate, is critical when considering adjustable-rate mortgages.

Financial Empathy During Uncertain Times

In industries prone to strikes or sudden income changes, lenders vary widely in their approach to financial empathy. Some lenders are quick to damage a borrower’s credit score or refuse to renew existing mortgages during difficult times. Others show understanding by offering deferred payment options to help borrowers weather financial challenges.

With our ever-changing market, assessing a lender’s flexibility and empathy is a vital part of the evaluation process. These factors, along with rate comparisons, go into the discussions we have with clients to ensure they’re set up for success in any scenario.

What You’ll Learn in The Mortgage Code

I explore these topics and more in my book, The Mortgage Code. This guide gives borrowers the tools they need to navigate the mortgage market with confidence, helping them understand how factors like market shifts, lender policies, and economic uncertainty can affect their financial future.

Order The Mortgage Code on Amazon. https://www.amazon.ca/Mortgage-Code-Helping-Property-Mistakes-ebook/dp/B07HFHR8TV

Key Takeaways for Borrowers

Understand the risks and rewards: Adjustable rates can offer flexibility and savings, but they come with unpredictability.

Evaluate lender policies: Consider how your lender handles deferred payments, renewals, and financial hardships.

Stay informed about rate discounts: The actual discount off prime, lock-in policies, and penalties matter in addition to just the rate itself.

Work with a trusted advisor: Our experience ensures every aspect of your financial situation is considered, not just the numbers.

 

Mortgage decisions are more than just choosing between fixed and adjustable rates—they’re about finding the right fit for your life and goals. Let’s work together to ensure you have clarity and confidence in every decision.


Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Bank of Canada and More Important Updates

General Angela Calla 12 Dec

I wanted to share some key updates that could impact your mortgage and financial planning as we approach the end of the year.

1. Bank of Canada Rate Decrease

The Bank of Canada has announced a 50-basis-point rate decrease, bringing the prime rate down from 5.95% to 5.45% with most lenders.  For adjustable or variable rate mortgages, this means approximately $30 savings per month per $100,000 owing on your mortgage.

· This change directly affects Adjustable-Rate and Variable-Rate Mortgages, potentially lowering your payments.

· If you’re considering a renewal or refinance, now is a great time to explore how you can benefit.

· For clients with mortgages currently in progress with us, our team automatically reviews your file to ensure you secure the lowest rate available.

The next Bank of Canada rate announcement will be in January 2025. Here’s the official press release for more details.

Click on the image below to watch Angela on Global News Morning.

 

2. Increased Insured Mortgage Cap (Effective December 15th)

As of December 15th, the insured mortgage cap will increase, offering greater flexibility for borrowers.

This change could open new opportunities for home purchases, renewals, and home renovation financing. Feel free to reach out to discuss how this update might work in your favor. You can also check out our previous post on this here and if you’re needing help with additional ways to help save for a down payment, you can find 3 helps tools here.

3. End-of-Year Document Organization

As we approach year-end, it’s the perfect time to get organized for tax filing and financial planning.

Start gathering key documents like:

· Pay stubs, T4s, and annual mortgage statements

· Any other financial records relevant to your taxes or mortgage

I recommend creating a dedicated folder for these items to streamline:

· Tax filing – Ensuring accurate and stress-free returns

· Mortgage renewals or reviews – Making future adjustments smooth and hassle-free

By being proactive now, you’ll save time and avoid stress later.

If you have any questions about these updates or need help with year-end preparations, please reply to this email with your questions or introductions to loved ones. We are here to help!

 


Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

The Bank of Canada Cuts Its Policy Rate By Another 50 Basis Points

General Angela Calla 12 Dec

The Surge In Canadian Unemployment Keeps Another Jumbo Rate Cut In Play In December

The BoC slashed the overnight rate by 50 bps this morning, bringing the policy rate down to 3.25%. The market had priced in nearly 90% odds of a 50 bp move, where consensus coalesced. The combined slower-than-expected GDP growth and a sharp rise in the Canadian unemployment rate to 6.8% triggered the Bank’s second consecutive jumbo rate cut. Today’s move will take the prime rate down 50 bps to 5.45% effective tomorrow, reducing floating rate mortgage loan rates by a half point, easing the cost of borrowing and reducing the monthly payment increase for renewals. This should spark housing activity, which accelerated in October and November.

The policy rate is now at the top of the estimated neutral rate range, 2.25% to 3.25%, with more moderate rate cuts continuing into next year. However, monetary policy remains restrictive, as the 3.25% policy rate is still 125 basis points above inflation, which has declined to roughly 2%, the Bank’s inflation target.

Economists have suggested that the tone of the central bank’s press release is more hawkish than before, unsurprising following two consecutive jumbo rate cuts. The Bank continues to say that its future decisions are data-dependent and will be impacted by policy measures taken by the government. In particular, the Bank highlighted the coming GST cuts, dispersal of bonus checks and the significant reduction in immigration. These developments have offsetting implications for inflation.

Governor Macklem signalled that he anticipated “a more gradual approach to monetary policy” in his press conference. We are forecasting 25 bp rate cuts through at least the first half of next year. That would take the overnight rate down to 2.5% by early June, a huge boost to housing that will likely enjoy a strong spring season.

 

 

 

 

 

Monetary policy remains overly restrictive as the 3.75% overnight policy rate remains well above the inflation rate. We expect the overnight rate to fall to 2.5% by April or June of next year. This should continue boosting housing activity, which increased significantly in October and November.

Last week’s GDP data release showed that Canada’s third-quarter GDP grew a mere 1.0%, well below the Bank’s downwardly revised forecast of 1.5%. This, in combination with today’s employment report, bodes well for the Bank of Canada to consider cutting rates by another 50 bps seriously. However, given how aggressive they have been compared to the Federal Reserve, which will undoubtedly cut rates by only 25 bps in late December, they could be satisfied with a 25 bp cut for now.

 

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

 


Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Three Overlooked Tools to Save Thousands on Your Home Purchase

General Angela Calla 10 Dec

Three Overlooked Tools to Save Thousands on Your Home Purchase

Buying a home is one of the biggest financial decisions you’ll ever make, but many buyers miss out on valuable tools that can significantly reduce costs. Whether you’re a first-time buyer or looking to upgrade, these three programs can help you save thousands of dollars and make your dream home more affordable.

1. No Property Transfer Tax on New Construction Up to $1.1 Million

•What it Means: Buyers of newly built homes priced up to $1.1 million in British Columbia can avoid paying the property transfer tax (PTT).

•Why It Matters: The property transfer tax is a significant expense, often overlooked during home purchase planning. Avoiding it can save buyers thousands upfront.

Example:

On a $1 million home, the PTT would normally be $18,000. With this exemption, buyers can redirect those funds toward furnishing their new home, reducing other debts, or boosting their savings.

2. CMHC Eco Plus Program – A 25% Insurance Premium Rebate

•What it Means: Buyers of energy-efficient homes may qualify for a rebate of up to 25% on their CMHC insurance premium which is applied for directly through the insurer.

•Why It Matters: Energy-efficient homes not only lower your insurance premium but also reduce long-term utility costs, making homeownership more affordable in the long run.

Example:

•Purchase Price: $700,000

•Down Payment: $70,000 (10%)

•Mortgage Amount: $630,000

•Insurance Premium (4%): $25,200

•Rebate (25%): $6,300

•Final Insurance Premium Cost: $18,900

This program puts thousands of dollars back into your pocket while promoting sustainability.

3. First Home Savings Account (FHSA)

•What it Means: The FHSA is a powerful savings tool designed for first-time homebuyers. Contributions are tax-deductible, and withdrawals used for purchasing a home are tax-free.

•Why It Matters: It combines the best features of an RRSP and a TFSA, allowing for tax-free growth while helping buyers save for a down payment faster.

Example (Opened in 2025):

•Maximum Contribution: $8,000/year, but if the account is opened in 2025, only three years of contributions can be made, totaling $24,000.

•Potential Growth: Assuming a 5% annual return, the account could grow to approximately $25,300, providing a larger down payment without any tax implications.

•For couples, combining FHSA accounts could allow for up to $50,600 in tax-free savings.

Maximizing Your Home Purchase Plan

These programs—when used strategically—can make a significant difference in your overall affordability.

1.Use the FHSA to grow your down payment.

2.Avoid the property transfer tax by choosing new construction.

3.Save on insurance premiums with the CMHC Eco Plus Program.

Take Advantage of Every Opportunity

Navigating the homebuying process can be overwhelming, but with the right guidance, you can maximize your savings and make more informed decisions. As a mortgage expert, I’m here to help you understand these tools and how to integrate them into your home purchase strategy.

Don’t leave money on the table—let’s build your plan together!

 


Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Top 5 Mortgage Rule Changes in British Columbia

General Angela Calla 10 Dec

Top 5 Mortgage Rule Changes in British Columbia

1. Increase in Insured Mortgage Cap: Effective December 15, 2024, the federal government is raising the insured mortgage price cap from $1 million to $1.5 million. This change allows buyers in high-cost markets like Vancouver to purchase homes up to $1.5 million with a down payment as low as 5% of the first $500,000 and 10% of the balance.

2.Expansion of 30-Year Amortizations: Starting December 15, 2024, all first-time homebuyers and buyers of new builds can access 30-year amortization periods for insured mortgages. This extension aims to lower monthly payments, making homeownership more accessible.

3.Removal of Stress Test for Uninsured Renewal Switches: As of November 21, 2024, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) has removed the federally required mortgage stress test for straight, stand-alone uninsured mortgage switches at renewal. This change allows homeowners to switch lenders without undergoing a new stress test, potentially securing better rates.

4.Introduction of Insured Refinances for Secondary Suites: Beginning January 15, 2025, eligible homeowners can access insured refinances for up to 90% of their property’s improved value (capped at a $2 million home value) for construction funds. This initiative encourages on-property density and aims to alleviate housing and rental supply issues.

Here’s an example of how the reduced down payment works under the new insured mortgage cap for a $1 million purchase:

Before the Change (Cap: $1 Million)

If the purchase price is $1 million or higher, a 20% down payment is required because homes over $1 million do not qualify for mortgage insurance.

•Purchase Price: $1,000,000

•Down Payment (20%): $200,000

•Mortgage Amount: $800,000

After the Change (Cap: $1.5 Million)

Now that the insured mortgage cap is raised to $1.5 million, buyers can qualify for insured mortgages with a lower down payment.

•First $500,000: Requires a 5% down payment = $25,000

•Next $500,000: Requires a 10% down payment = $50,000

•Total Down Payment: $25,000 + $50,000 = $75,000

•Mortgage Amount: $925,000

 

Savings: This reduces the down payment from $200,000 to $75,000, making homeownership more accessible for buyers in high-cost markets.

 


Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

New Insurer Rules Recap

General Angela Calla 10 Dec

New Rules Recap

As you may already know, we have some great new rules coming into effect on December 15th.

Want a quick recap? Here you go:

30yr amortizations:

Purchase price increase:

  • The purchase price of an insured purchase goes up to $1.5M
  • Downpayment: Remains 5% of the first $500K and 10% of the balance

Have more questions? Reach out to us directly at callateam@countoncalla.ca or 604-802-3983.

 


Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

November Jobless Rate Surges to 6.8% in Canada Despite Strong Jobs Growth

General Angela Calla 10 Dec

The Surge In Canadian Unemployment Keeps Another Jumbo Rate Cut In Play In December

Before the release of today’s Canadian Labour Force Data, the odds favoured a 25 basis point drop in the overnight policy rate when the Bank of Canada meets again on December 11th. The data showed more substantial than expected job creation, as the country added 51,000 net new positions in November compared to the expected rise of 25,000. However, nearly 90% of the job growth was in the public sector, dampening enthusiasm.

Public sector employment rose by 45,000 (+1.0%) in November and accounted for the majority of the overall employment gain in the month. The number of private sector employees and the number of self-employed people were both little changed in November.

The number of public-sector employees grew by 127,000 (+2.9%) in November compared with 12 months earlier. The increase was driven by the public-sector components of health care and social assistance (+81,000) and educational services (+48,000) (not seasonally adjusted). Over the same period, private-sector employment rose at a slower pace (+1.3%; +173,000).

Despite the sharp rise in employment, the jobless rate surged to its highest level in three years, bolstering the case for the BoC to consider another 50 bps rate cut next week. Statistics Canada said Friday that unemployment jumped 0.3 percentage points to 6.8%. The jobless rate is now the highest since January 2017 excluding the pandemic period.

Interest rates fell on the news. Traders in overnight swaps boosted the odds of a 50 basis-point cut at the Bank of Canada’s decision next week at more than three-quarters, from about a coin flip previously. The report was released at the same time as US nonfarm payrolls, which rose by 227,000 while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.

The report underscores ongoing labour market softness that had already convinced the Bank of Canada to ramp up the pace of rate cuts with a 50 basis-point reduction in October.

Other details in the report pointed to a slowing economy. Hours worked dipped 0.2%, posting its third decline in the past four months. Also flagging was wage inflation, which cooled considerably. After remaining very strong for months, wage inflation dipped to 4.1% in November, down from 4.9% in October and marking its slowest pace in two years.

After falling for six consecutive months from May to October, the employment rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 and older who are employed—held steady at 60.6% in November. Employment growth in the month kept pace with growth in the population aged 15 and older in the Labour Force Survey (LFS) (+0.2%). On a year-over-year basis, the employment rate was down 1.2 percentage points.

The proportion of long-term unemployed people has increased along with the unemployment rate. In November, 21.7% had been continuously unemployed for 27 weeks or more, up 5.9 percentage points from a year earlier.

The labour force participation rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 and older who were employed or looking for work—increased by 0.3 percentage points to 65.1% in November, offsetting a cumulative decline of 0.3 percentage points in September and October. The participation rate was down by 0.5 percentage points on a year-over-year basis.

Bottom Line

Monetary policy remains overly restrictive as the 3.75% overnight policy rate remains well above the inflation rate. We expect the overnight rate to fall to 2.5% by April or June of next year. This should continue boosting housing activity, which increased significantly in October and November.

Last week’s GDP data release showed that Canada’s third-quarter GDP grew a mere 1.0%, well below the Bank’s downwardly revised forecast of 1.5%. This, in combination with today’s employment report, bodes well for the Bank of Canada to consider cutting rates by another 50 bps seriously. However, given how aggressive they have been compared to the Federal Reserve, which will undoubtedly cut rates by only 25 bps in late December, they could be satisfied with a 25 bp cut for now.

Article courtesy of Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

 


Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog.