By Joe McDonald 

BEIJING — China took new steps Tuesday to control bank lending, ordering institutions to set aside more reserves in a move to avert a surge in credit that Beijing worries might fuel inflation or asset price bubbles.

China’s nascent rebound from the global crisis was fuelled by a flood of lending by state-owned banks last year. Bankers cut lending under government orders toward the end of 2009 but regulators worry credit might rebound this year.

The move indicates Beijing is confident growth can be sustained and has shifted focus to preventing financial excesses and economic overheating. The government is forecasting growth of 8.3 per cent for 2009, up from a low of 6.1 per cent for the first quarter of the year.

The central bank raised the amount of reserves that banks must hold by 0.5 per cent to 15 per cent of their deposits. Also Tuesday, the bank raised interest rates paid on one-year bills for the first time since August to absorb money from the market and cool credit growth.

“This series of moves by the central bank provides a clear sign that policy-makers are following through on their pledge to guide credit in order to pre-empt rising inflation and avoid asset price bubbles,” said Jing Ulrich, chair of China equities for J.P. Morgan, in a report.

Chinese stock and real estate prices soared last year, driven in part by stimulus money being diverted to speculation. The central bank governor and others have called for measures to prevent a dangerous boom and bust in asset prices, warning that could hurt the economy and banks that are left with unpaid loans.

Beijing also is trying to curb an inflow of foreign “hot money” that is coming into China to speculate in stocks and real estate.

Chinese banks lent 8.95 trillion yuan ($1.3 trillion) in January-October, up from a total of 4.2 trillion yuan for all of 2008. Much of that was in the first half of the year and lending fell sharply after July, when regulators tightened regulations on loans to buy second homes and ordered banks to scrutinize borrowers more closely.

The recent measures appear to be aimed at preventing a return to the torrid lending of early 2009. Despite the lending curbs, Chinese leaders have repeatedly assured the public that stimulus spending would continue in 2010. They say the government will pay special attention to entrepreneurs who missed out on aid in the first year of the stimulus.

The spending has sent housing prices soaring in Beijing and Shanghai since late 2008. Prices have roughly doubled over the past three years to more than 12,000 yuan ($1,700) per square meter, according to a December report by the U.S. bond manager Pimco.

Neighbouring Russia is suffering from the opposite problem.

Lending there is weak because banks are afraid of incurring bad loans, the chair of its central bank, Sergei Ignatyev, told parliament last month. He said corporate lending is flat, and retail lending is declining.

The politically sensitive prices of food and consumer goods also are edging up. After nine months of decline, consumer prices rose 0.6 per cent in November from a year earlier.

The bank reserve rate now stands at 15 per cent, its highest level since Dec. 5, according to the Chinese financial data website Hexun.com.

Rural credit cooperatives were exempt from the increase to make sure they can lend enough for spring planting, the central bank said. Their reserve rate was left at 13.5 per cent, according to Hexun.com.

The boost in the interest rate on the one-year bill was the first since August. The central bank had raised the rate for its three-month bills on Thursday.

The increase in the reserve rate was announced after Chinese stock markets closed.

The country’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index closed up 1.9 per cent, or 61.22 points, at 3,273.97 on Tuesday. The index was one of the world’s best performers in 2009, ending the year up 80 per cent after heavy stimulus spending.

Investors are sensitive to changes in credit that they depend on to finance speculation and previous lending curbs have caused stock prices to fall.

The Associated Press

Canada falls back into trade deficit as dollar, low demand stalls exports

Julian Beltrame, THE CANADIAN PRESS
The Canadian Press, 2010

OTTAWA – Canada was pulled back into a trade deficit in November as the country faced twin headwinds of both a strong loonie and weaker demand for exports, after a surprisingly strong performance the previous month.

The value of exports from Canada rose 1.1 per cent from October, but imports jumped 3.9 per cent, producing a deficit of $344 million. In October, saw Canada posted its first trade surplus in months at $503 million.

In terms of volume, exports fell a disappointing 0.1 per cent in November, Statistics Canada reported.

Economists say with the loonie worth nearly as much as the American dollar, and potentially reaching parity within the year, the prospects for 2010 remain bleak for Canadian exporters.

“Don’t look for a quick return to the halcyon days of big surpluses any time soon with domestic demand reviving faster than U.S. spending, and the Canadian dollar remaining lofty,” BMO Capital Markets economist Douglas Porter wrote in an analysis of the trade data.

On Monday, Prime Minister Stephen Harper blamed soft international demand and the strong loonie for the weakness in Canada’s manufacturing sector and slow jobs recovery.

But Export Development Canada offered some modest hope Tuesday, saying its semi-annual trade confidence index rose to 77.4 in the fall of 2009 from 68.5 during the spring.

“Trade is definitely in a growth mode, but we can’t forget the starting point,” said EDC chief economist Peter Hall. “Canadian exports took a 20 per cent hit in 2009, six times greater than any annual decline in recent memory. What exporters are saying is that they expect to start climbing out of that chasm.”

And Hall believes exporters will be getting a break from the currency in the latter half of this year, although many other analysts see the loonie remaining near or above par with the U.S. dollar for most of 2010.

“We think the drivers of the currency are out of whack with reality,” Hall explained. “Base metal prices seem a little too high and oil prices now are more indicative of an economy that is fully recovered than it actually is.” Hall says he believes the Canadian dollar will slump to about 86 cents US in the second half of 2010, about 10 cents US lower than its current level.

Still, economists are not looking for a quick turnaround in Canada’s trade performance.

TD Bank economist Dina Petramala said although goods exports are on track to record a 12 per cent annualized gain in the fourth quarter of 2009, she still expects Canada to stay in a trade deficit for most of this year.

She said weak U.S. demand for Canadian exports and the high dollar points to another year of struggle for the export sector. About 75 per cent of Canada’s exports head to the U.S.

As well, a strong dollar has the effect of making imports more attractive to Canadians, further exacerbating the trade deficit.

In November, exports increased to $31.6 billion benefiting on the higher price of oil – the fifth increase in six months – as prices rose 1.1 per cent.

But in volume terms, exports actually slipped 0.1 per cent. And excluding energy products, exports fell 0.3 per cent.

Meanwhile, imports to Canada increased by $1.2 billion to $31.9 billion, almost offsetting the declines of the previous three months.

Most import sectors posted gains, with automotive products, machinery and equipment, and energy products accounting for the bulk of November’s increase.

The exception was industrial goods and materials.

Exports to the United States rose two per cent while imports, which increased 3.8 per cent, accounted for almost two-thirds of the gain in overall imports.

As a result, Canada’s trade surplus with the United States narrowed to $3.2 billion in November from $3.5 billion in October.

Exports to countries other than the United States fell 1.2 per cent while imports from these countries increased four per cent.

Consequently, Canada’s trade deficit with countries other than the United States widened to $3.6 billion in November from $3 billion in October.

Response to the Strata Property Act Amendments Concerning Rentals Announcement     January 12, 2010    

Good morning,

We have had several questions to our recent email regarding the recent changes to the Strata Property Act and rental units.  Below is a summary of the questions and our answers.

What is a “RDS”?  

“RDS” is the Rental Disclosure Statement that is filed as part of the Disclosure Statement. Developers are required to provide a Disclosure Statement every time they sell 5 or more units, and a Rental Disclosure Statement is part of the Disclosure Statement.

How does this affect a buyer acquiring property already tenanted from original owner – It does not.  The recent changes to the Strata Property Act only apply to Disclosure Statements filed after Dec. 31, 2009.  There is no change for units in which the Disclosure Statement was filed prior to that time.

Does this mean that any new strata filed after January 1^st of 2010, does not have the power to enforce rental restrictions?  This is correct only if the Rental Disclosure Statement reserves the right to rent for a period of time (which most do).  Developers may choose to file a RDS that prohibits rentals and in such a case, rentals shall not be allowed.

Does this apply only to No Rental restrictions or what about where strata set up a maximum number of units to be rented?  As stated above, the changes have nothing to do with existing units, so current No Rental Restrictions are in effect and remain so.

Most every form ‘B’ I have seen says nothing about a date?  It is the Rental Disclosure Statement that is relevant, not the Form B.

If you have anymore questions please let me know, 

 Tune into The Mortgage Show on CKNW AM980 Saturdays at 7pm with AMP of the year Angela Calla

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January 2010   Angela Calla Dominion Lending Centres Phone: (604) 802-3983 Cell: Fax: E-mail Website   DID YOU KNOW… I can help protect your home and family through a mortgage life insurance policy. Mortgage life insurance is a life insurance policy on a homeowner, which will allow your family or dependents to pay off the mortgage on the home should something tragic happen to you. This is not to be confused with mortgage default insurance, which lenders require to cover their own assets if you have less than 20% equity in your home. Mortgage life insurance is meant to protect the family of a homeowner and not the mortgage lender itself. HOMEOWNER TIPS Humidifier Maintenance: Whether you have a power humidifier or just a simple pan-type model, you will have to clean your humidifier on a regular basis to ensure proper operation. As water evaporates, it leaves behind mineral deposits that clog the mechanisms in the humidifier, eventually causing it to stop working. You will be able to tell when cleaning is appropriate as the mineral deposits will be noticeable to the eye and to the touch. The sponge drum in a power humidifier will be crusty and stiff instead of soft and pliable. Check at least twice a year and more often in the winter when your humidifier is likely to be working harder. Hiring a Snow Removal Contractor: Following are some questions to ask when choosing a snow removal contractor: 1. Does the company have insurance (general liability insurance specifically covering snow removal operations)? 2. Is the organization registered with the Better Business Bureau? 3. Are the employees of the company covered by workplace health and safety insurance? 4. How long has the firm been operating? 5. Does the company have solid references in your area? 6. What type of equipment will be used? 7. How will the company communicate with you? About DLC Leasing Inc * DLC Leasing is the leasing division within Dominion Lending Centres Inc. * Our leasing programs provide up to 100% financing on business-related equipment. * Leasing options include new equipment leasing; used equipment and vehicle leasing; customized solutions through vendor finance programs; and lease-backs –where the lender buys equipment from a business owner and the owner leases it back. * Technology, heavy equipment and trailers, furniture and hospitality equipment, and manufacturing and industrial equipment are just a few examples of available leasing options. * With access to multiple lending sources, Dominion Lending Centres’ Lease Professionals can cater to leasing deals for a variety of credit scenarios ranging from A to C credit quality. * Because many of our Lease Professionals are also licensed mortgage agents, we can offer standard equipment leases and creatively structured solutions for seasonal, new or growing companies. * Working with someone who is both a lease and mortgage expert enables you to even use commercial and residential mortgage and property credit line products, alone or in combination with lease financing, to help achieve the best solutions for your equipment acquisition needs. * Our Lease Professionals can even break up large-dollar transactions into multiple leases across a number of funders to ease and simplify the approval process.   Happy New Year! Welcome to the January issue of my monthly newsletter! This month’s edition takes a closer look at Canadian mortgage debt, as well as offers some tax-saving tips. Please let me know if you have any questions or feedback regarding anything outlined below. Thanks again for your continued support and referrals!   Newspaper editorials have been overflowing lately with speculation on how rising rates may lead to a surge in mortgage defaults. In response to this issue, CIBC Economist Benjamin Tal released a report that took a closer look at the facts and determined history doesn’t support this premise. Below is a summary of Tal’s report. House Prices – Some Overshooting Over the past two years, the degree of volatility observed in the Canadian housing market has been unprecedented. Within this short timeframe, house prices fell by almost 13%, only to rebound by an impressive 21%. Meanwhile, resale activity is now rising by close to 67% on a year-over-year basis after falling by close to 40% in 2008. Housing starts are presently 33% higher than in April 2009 despite dropping by more than 50% earlier in the recession. In fact, no other segment of the economy has rebounded as fast as the housing market, making it one of the real surprises of this recession. This rapid uptick in housing activity, in the face of recessionary conditions elsewhere in the economy, raises concerns about its sustainability, and is causing some to wonder whether house prices are, in fact, rising too quickly given current economic fundamentals. Tal estimates that the Canadian housing market as a whole is indeed beginning to overshoot its “fair value”. At just under $350,000, the current average price of a home is estimated to be roughly 7% over what would be consistent with current housing market fundamentals such as interest rates, income growth, rents and demographics. But this modest overshooting is far from uniform across the country. Those figures are skewed to western Canada, which has seen the most dramatic swings in house prices over the past 24 months. That market now appears to be overvalued by roughly 10-15%, suggesting that the imbalance in the rest of the country is much more modest. Note, however, that overvaluation does not necessarily mean a bubble or a dramatic price correction. Given that the current overvaluation is occurring in a context of historically low interest rates, what we are most likely witnessing is a temporary period of exuberance that is “borrowing” activity from the future, as households take advantage of lower rates and accelerate their borrowing and home purchasing activities. To the extent that current activity is simply a redistribution of sales from the future to the present, the housing market of tomorrow may be in store for a more muted level of activity. Housing starts will also catch up with the sudden spurt in demand, with the increase in supply helping to moderate price trends. Rather than plunging, house prices are more likely to stagnate in coming years (or fall modestly in the most overheated markets) as fundamentals catch up with a market that has gotten ahead of itself.   What Worries the Bank of Canada? Rather than house prices, it is the accelerated pace of borrowing at very low rates that is beginning to raise some concerns at the Bank of Canada. For the first time in the post-war era, real household credit continued to expand through a recession. In fact, mortgage credit is now rising at a year-over-year rate of more than 7%. This strong performance is a clear reflection of an extremely effective monetary policy in Canada. With Canadian consumer confidence only 10 points below its pre-recession level (versus a 50% decline in the US), Canada is benefiting not only from properly functioning credit channels, but also from a household sector that is willing and able to take on new credit. Remember that low rates only work as an economic stimulus if Canadians take advantage of them. The wave of borrowing does, however, have consequences in terms of consumer debt levels. The household debt-to-income ratio is now at a new all-time high of more than 140%. Despite a record low 4.4% effective mortgage rate, overall mortgage interest payments as a share of after-tax income are now at levels that in the past were consistent with a 6% effective mortgage rate. Since rates will no doubt at some point return to those higher levels, the Bank of Canada is worried that Canadians are making themselves increasingly more vulnerable in terms of their ability to continue to service these new, higher debt loads. How Big is the Problem? The relevant question, however, is just how serious a problem it is becoming, and here we have to dig a bit deeper to get the answers. Aside from an unlikely scenario of a 1970s-type stagflation, any future increase in interest rates will be in response to an improving economy. As such, any analysis of the potential impact of higher rates on the household sector in general, and the housing market in particular, should be done with tomorrow’s healthier economy in mind. After all, the reality is that, in the past, interest rates have played only a minor role in driving mortgage default rates. Historically, it’s clear that mortgage arrear rates are highly correlated with the unemployment rate, with little or no correlation with changes in interest rates. The same goes for the economy in general. Over the past three decades, personal bankruptcies have risen twice as fast in an environment of falling interest rates than in an environment of rising rates. And the logic here is obvious – interest rates rise when the economy recovers, and the benefits to employment and incomes of an improving economy easily offset the sting of higher interest rates on debt service costs. Click here to read the full Benjamin Tal report. As always, if you have any questions or concerns about mortgage affordability, I’m here to help!   With the rush of the holiday season and New Year’s celebrations now over, many Canadians are turning their attentions to their taxes. Following are some useful tips to help simplify your 2009 tax filing process and get the most out of future returns. While the 2009 tax filing deadline is months away, January is often the best time of year for Canadians to evaluate their overall tax strategies, especially as time will run out to realize a variety of tax-saving opportunities early this year. Advice for homeowners and prospective homebuyers In 2009, significant tax changes were introduced in the federal budget to benefit homeowners, prospective homeowners and even homeowners who renovated their home, cottage or condo. These include: changes made to the RRSP Home Buyers’ Plan; eligibility for the new non-refundable First-Time Home Buyer’s Tax Credit; and the Home Renovation Tax Credit (HRTC). A $5,000 increase to the RRSP Home Buyers’ Plan means that first-time homebuyers can now withdraw up to $25,000 from their RRSPs for a down payment – tax- and interest-free. The First-Time Home Buyer’s Tax Credit includes a $750 tax credit for first-time homebuyers to help with closing costs, such as legal fees, disbursements and land transfer taxes. And if you’ve been thinking about doing some home renovations, keep in mind that the 15% HRTC of up to $1,350 only applies to eligible home renovation expenses undertaken before February 1st, 2010. RRSP Contributions A Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP) continues to be one of the best tax shelters available to the average taxpayer.     Eligible RRSP contributions are deducted directly from income reported on your tax return. This means that you save taxes at your marginal rate, which may be up to 50%, depending on your income level and province of residence. In addition to the initial tax savings when the contributions are deducted, all income earned inside the RRSP accumulates tax-free until the money is withdrawn. Remember that you have 60 days after the calendar year to make a contribution that qualifies for a tax deduction for that year. RESP Contributions Registered Education Savings Plans (RRSPs) allow people to save for the post-secondary education of children or grandchildren on a tax sheltered basis while reducing taxable income. There are, of course, other advantages to RESPs. With an RESP contribution of $2,500 per child, the federal government will contribute $500 in the form of the Canada Education Savings Grant to the RESP. If a client has prior non-contributory years, the annual grant can be as much as $1,000 in respect of a $5,000 contribution. Do You Have a TFSA? With the introduction of Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) on January 1st, 2009, 26 million Canadians aged 18 and older received $5,000 in tax-free contribution room from the federal government. On January 1st, 2010, an additional $5,000 in tax-free contribution room was added to each account. Now is an excellent time to discuss your options for making the most of this new contribution room. Remember that it’s important to review your overall tax-planning strategy with a professional to ensure you’re making the most of any opportunities available to you, especially as a result of new savings and investment vehicles, credits and policy changes that came into effect for the first time in 2009.     We are Canada’s premier online mortgage company, and one of the fastest growing mortgage brokerages nationwide! We have more than 1,500 Mortgage Professionals from more than 200 locations across the country! Our Mortgage Professionals are Experts in their field and many are ranked among the best nationally. We work for you, not the lenders, so your best interests will always be our number one priority. We have more than 100 mortgage programs, making it easy to choose the best fit for your unique situation. We close loans in all 10 provinces and 3 territories. We can process your mortgage in as few as 7 days. We are the preferred mortgage lender for several of Canada’s top companies. Dominion Lending Centres’ Mortgage Professionals are available anytime, anywhere, evenings and weekends – and we’ll even come to you!   2189 Austin Ave Coquitlam BC V3K 3R9

 

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How your mortgage can set you free of other debt 

 Credit crunch, debt crisis — call it what you will, but the current economic climate is spurring people to get their own finances in order. For Jack and Sarah Stewart, of Toronto, this means tackling the $40,000 in debt they’ve allowed to balloon during the past eight years. With their mortgage coming up for renewal, they’re thinking of clearing the slate and rolling the burden into their mortgage.

“We want to consolidate our debt, but we’re not sure if increasing our mortgage is the best way to do it,” says Jack, who asked that his and his wife’s names be changed to protect their privacy.

He’s not alone. Laurie Campbell, executive director of Credit Canada, says it’s a question people grapple with all the time. “Homes in the past have been your sacred cow,” she says, referring to the drive to pay down one’s mortgage as quickly as possible.

These days, however, with people juggling debts and paying varying rates of interest, increasing one’s mortgage can be a smart move, even if it takes longer to pay off.

Lowering interest rates

It’s a common theme as homeowners strive to bring down the overall interest they pay, as well as reduce their monthly obligations. He prefers to think of it as repositioning one’s debt, and in his experience, “in almost all cases, it’s justified.”

“If you have debt that is sitting at 18 percent interest, then it certainly makes sense,” says Campbell, adding that it’s something to consider only if you have enough equity in your home and if your mortgage is coming up for renewal (read the fine print to find out if the penalties for breaking a mortgage outweigh the possible benefits).

If you’re working with the same lender, there’s often no penalty involved with increasing your mortgage before the term expires.

The Stewarts seem like prime candidates. They have a $200,000 mortgage on a house worth about $425,000. They have plenty of equity, they’re up for renewal at the end of the year and they say they’re serious about getting their finances in order. Ideally, they’d roll the debt into their mortgage, continue an accelerated payment program whereby they pay every two weeks and they would not increase their amortization period, but instead increase their payments.

Dealing with debt

It’s a good plan, says Campbell, who thinks all mortgage holders should accelerate their payments. She also likes the idea that they plan to stick to a 17-year amortization instead of renegotiating another 25-year mortgage. However, she stresses that none of this amounts to much if the Stewarts are going to continue the same spending habits and find themselves in a similar position five years from now. “They have to understand what got them into this $40,000 debt in the first place. They have to make sure they don’t fall victim to that again.”

She recommends cutting up credit cards, especially store cards, which have higher rates of interest, and not using one’s line of credit like a bank account.

The Stewarts say the bulk of their debt was incurred for renovation costs, including a new kitchen and installing hardwood flooring, but admit their spending habits need a makeover. “We’re always dipping in to our line of credit because we’re strapped for cash,” says Sarah Stewart. “I think if we consolidate the debt, it’ll increase our cash flow and we’ll be able to live within our means.”

Jeanette Brox, a Certified Financial Planner with Investors Group in North York, Ont., always encourages her clients to look at the big picture when it comes to financial health: “My job is to make them think outside the box.” She says helping people manage debt, while securing their future, is essential. “People need to think beyond what our parents did, which was paying down the mortgage,” she says. “I used to think that way too, but I don’t anymore.”

In her view, the Stewarts and others like them need to take an aggressive approach if they ever want to get ahead. Not only do they need to improve cash flow, but they also need an emergency fund for unforeseen expenses, not to mention a retirement plan.

Planning for the future

Brox admits a lot of people would balk at the idea, but she thinks the Stewarts, both in their early 30s, should not only roll their debt into the mortgage, but increase their mortgage an additional $35,000 for a total of $275,000. To make payments more manageable, she’d also recommend increasing the amortization period to 25 years. She would invest $25,000 in mutual funds and further $10,000 in a money market account (earning about two percent interest).

“This is what I call a lifestyle fund,” says Brox, adding that part of the interest cost on the mortgage would be tax deductible. “It’s a win-win situation, but you’ve got to be really disciplined.”

That means using their increased tax return to pay down the principal on the mortgage, thereby helping compensate for the interest cost of carrying the additional $35,000. The other bonus is that within five years (or so), the $25,000 registered retirement savings plan, or RRSP, will have grown to about $40,000. She stresses this is a long-term plan and people have to realize that the market is going to rise and fall.

“It’s all based on comfort level,” says Brox, adding that the biggest mistake she sees with people who reposition debt is that they don’t have a long-term plan and, as Campbell, pointed out, go back to old spending habits. “People need to have their whole financial picture analyzed. It’s something to consider, but you need to work with mortgage expert that will put together a plan for you.”

Lines of credit

There’s a whole school of thinkers that shudder at the thought of increasing one’s mortgage. At the core of this is that you’re trading unsecured debt for secured debt and paying interest on that debt for the entire life of your mortgage, which can dramatically increase the cost of borrowing. In addition, refinancing also involves added legal costs (in most cases a minimum of $500). An alternative is consolidating debt onto a line of credit or home equity loan, which have higher interest rates than a mortgage, but can be paid off more quickly.

This works in theory, say our experts, but rarely in real life. “A lot of people just make the minimum payment and never get it cleaned up,” says Brox.

“I’m wary of open lines of credit because they can easily stay at $50,000 forever,” says Campbell, adding that an increased mortgage payment forces people to be more disciplined in paying down debt.

As for paying the debt for the entire length of your mortgage, all the experts stress that the way to combat this is by channelling extra funds back into the mortgage and paying off the mortgage early. This could mean accelerated payments, using tax returns or bumping up the payments. “We’re putting all the money back into the principal of the mortgage,” says Majthenyi, who points out that an extra $10,000 on a mortgage costs about $50 a month, while a $10,000 loan requires minimum payments of $300.

In the Stewart’s case, it’s costing them about $1,000 a month to cover $40,000 debt. If it’s part of their mortgage, it translates into about $200. Ideally they’d direct the bulk of that money back into their mortgage through an annual lump payment or by increasing individual payments by a few hundred dollars.

Repositioning debt into one’s mortgage is a sound option for people who are committed to changing bad habits and/or taking a long-term approach to getting their finances in order.

When it comes to money, Brox says that people need a big-picture plan, not a band-aid solution: “A lot of times it’s not what you make but how you manage it.”

For more information on this tune into The Mortgage Show, on 980 AM CKNW saturdays at 7pm with Angela Calla, AMP of the year

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8.5% unemployed

Paul Vieira, Financial Post 

OTTAWA – Financial markets were dealt a reality check yesterday with disappointing December jobs data from Canada and, more notably, the United States signalling an uneven and choppy recovery, and prompting U.S. analysts to scale back expectations on rate hikes.

Analysts noted, however, that an improving trend is definitely emerging in both countries. Furthermore, some reckon unemployment levels in Canada may have peaked.

Statistics Canada said the economy lost 2,600 jobs last month, but the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 8.5%. Markets expected 20,000 new jobs in December, after an off-the-chart 79,000 gain in November.

“It’s looking more believable by the day that the 8.7% jobless rate in August will mark the peak for the cycle, far below past recession highs — 13% in 1982 and 12.1% in 1992 — and no worse than the average unemployment rate in Canada over the past 30 years,” said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Stewart Hall, economist at HSBC Securities Canada, said there was “palatable” disappointment given the big gain in November. But the fact the economy held onto most of those jobs “is in and of itself fairly significant,” he said.

With the December figures in hand, they suggest the Canadian economy shed 240,000 jobs in 2009 — the bulk of which occurred in the first half of the year. In the last five months of the year, the economy generated an average of 20,000 new jobs per month.

Mr. Hall said average monthly gains of 20,000 are likely in the offing, as this recovery is likely to mirror the one following the recession of the early 1990s. “One characterized by some jobs growth followed by consolidation. Not terrific, but infinitely preferable to the experience of the previous year.”

The Canadian recession ended in the third quarter with meagre annualized growth of 0.4%, as domestic strength was offset by a weak export sector that was hampered by a strong Canadian dollar and weak U.S. demand. Economists estimate growth in the final three months of 2009 to register between 3% and 4%.

The Bank of Canada is expected to begin raising its benchmark lending rate in the third quarter. There is less confidence about near-term tightening from the U.S. Federal Reserve Board.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said non-farm employment in December fell 85,000, compared to expectations for no change. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 10%, although analysts note it was due to a plunge in the labour force, as people stopped looking for work.

“Firms are still bent on boosting productivity and remain cautious about hiring,” analysts from London-based Capital Economics said of the U.S. data.

The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note — a market gauge of interest rate expectations — dropped yesterday below 1%, indicating analysts believe the likelihood of a Fed rate hike has been “pushed out for a few more months,” Ajay Rajadhyaksha, head of U.S. fixed-income strategy at Barclays PLC in New York, told Bloomberg News.

The U.S. bureau noted, however, that during 2009 monthly job losses moderated, from an average 691,000 in the first quarter to 69,000 in the fourth quarter. Also, the bureau revised data for November indicating the U.S. economy created 4,000 jobs — the first monthly gain in more than two years.

Still, Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC World Markets, said the 10% U.S. jobless rate masks the “true extent” of labour slack, “as it ignores those working part-time involuntarily [and] those who gave up looking for work.”

As a result, the Fed is unlikely to raise rates for some time.

David Paddon, THE CANADIAN PRESS
TORONTO – Canada’s residential real estate market is expected to remain unusually strong through the first half of this year after a strong finish to 2009, according to a survey published Thursday by Royal LePage.

The Royal LePage analysis is consistent with other recent reports on the state of the Canadian real estate market, which has rebounded over the past 12 months after sales dried up in late 2008 and hit a multi-year low in January 2009.

The Canadian market’s sudden plunge was sparked by a credit crunch that originated in the U.S. housing and lending industries – eventually spreading globally, causing a worldwide recession in the late summer and early fall of 2009.

However, the Canadian real estate market has been much quicker to recover than its American counterpart, in part because of a more stable banking industry, historically low interest rates and improving consumer confidence.

Royal LePage executive Phil Soper says Canada’s real estate market enters 2010 with “considerable momentum from an unusually strong finish to the previous year.”

The stimulus effect of low borrowing costs has contributed to a sharp rise in demand that has driven activity to new highs, he said in a statement.

Royal LePage says house prices appreciated in late 2009, with fourth-quarter price averages higher than in the fourth quarter of 2008.

The average price of detached bungalows rose to $315,055 (up six per cent), the price of a standard two-storey home rose to $353,026 (up 5.2 per cent), and the price of a standard condominium rose to $205,756 (up 6.4 per cent).

Regions that saw the strongest declines during the recession are now showing marked gains. Those regions include Toronto and the Lower Mainland, B.C.

Vancouver, which is frequently Canada’s most expensive real estate market, experienced a particularly robust quarter, with home prices rising across all housing types surveyed.

“No other sector of the economy has been as highly affected by economic stimulus as housing,” said Soper.

“As consumer confidence has improved, Canadians have shown a lingering reluctance to acquire depreciating assets such as consumer durables, but have embraced the opportunity to invest in real property.”

Royal LePage estimates that Vancouver’s real estate prices will rise a further 7.2 per cent this year, although February may be soft because of the Olympic Winter Games that will be held in the city and nearby Whistler, B.C.

Detached bungalows in Vancouver sold for an average of $828,750 in the fourth quarter, up 11.4 per cent from the same period last year. Standard condominiums in Vancouver went up 11.8 per cent year-over-year to an average of $452,750. Prices of standard two-storey homes in Vancouver rose 9.6 per cent year-over-year, selling at $917,500.

In Toronto, the average price of a standard condo rose 2.9 per cent to $309,316, detached bungalows rose 9.9 per cent to $446,214 and standard detached homes increased 3.5 per cent to $564,175.

In Montreal, the average price of a detached bungalow rose to $245,125 (up 3.1 per cent; a condo increased to $216,667 (up 16 per cent) and a two-storey house increased 12.3 per cent from a year earlier to $345,789, Royal LePage said.

The Greater Montreal Real Estate Board reported Thursday that the number of sales last year increased 41,802, up three per cent from 2008. The median price of a single-family home was $235,000 last year, up four per cent from 2008.

“Although sales decreased the first four months of 2009, Montreal’s real estate market rebounded and finished the year on a positive note,” said Michel Beausejour, the Montreal board’s chief executive.

The group that represents Toronto-area realtors reported Wednesday that there were 87,308 transactions last year through the Multiple Listing Service, a 17 per cent increase over 2008.

In December, there were 5,541 sales in the Greater Toronto Area (average price $411,931), up from 2,577 sales in December 2008 (average price $361,415), according to the Toronto Real Estate Board.

The Toronto board also said the number of sales of existing homes rebounded in the latter half of 2009 after a slow start at the beginning of last year.

Royal LePage’s average price estimates for other Canadian cities include:

-St. John’s, N.L.: Detached bungalow, $217,167 (up 14.3 per cent); standard two-storey house $298,833 (up 14.1 per cent).

-Halifax: Detached bungalow, $238,000 (up 10.7 per cent); standard two-storey homes, $265,333 (up 1.8 per cent).

-Charlottetown: Detached bungalow, $160,000 (up 1.9 per cent); standard two-storey $195,000 (up 3.7 per cent).

-Saint John, N.B.: Detached bungalow, $228,000 (up 1.3 per cent); standard two-storey $299,000 (up 1.5 per cent).

-Moncton, N.B.: Detached bungalow, $152,300 in the fourth quarter (up 1.5 per cent); standard two-storey home, $131,000 (up 4.0 per cent)

-Fredericton: Detached bungalow, $182,000 (up 12.3 per cent); standard two-storey, $210,000 (unchanged).

-Ottawa: Detached bungalow, $332,417 (up 3.4 per cent); standard two-story home $331,917 (up 3.7 per cent).

-Winnipeg: Detached bungalow, $241,650 (up 9.9 per cent); standard two-storey home $275,500 (up 10 per cent).

-Edmonton: Detached bungalow, $299,286 (down 0.7 per cent); standard two-storey home, $340,557 (down 1.2 per cent)

-Calgary: Detached bungalow, $412,478 (up 0.5 per cent); standard two-storey home, $427,067 (up 2.3 per cent).

Traders are treading cautiously ahead of Friday’s big U.S. and Canadian jobs reports. Bond yields are hovering just under their 15-month high.

Most lenders are holding off on further mortgage rate increases ahead of the report. 

Interestingly, only a few lenders chose to raise mortgage rates following December’s big spike in yields. (Why spoil the holidays, eh?)

Looking forward, this Friday’s employment report could be a huge catalyst for rate direction.  It should be:

• Positive for mortgage rates if employment gains are dismal; or
• Negative for mortgage rates if job gains are strong.

Mortgage planners will probably want to have their rate locks ready in case yields happen to explode higher.

Canadian and U.S. employment reports will be released Friday, January 8, at 7:00 a.m. and 8:30 a.m. ET respectively.