CPI Inflation Falls To 2.8%–Inside the BoC’s Target Range

General Angela Calla 19 Jul

Canadian Inflation Falls Within Bank of Canada’s Target Range; Food and Shelter Costs Remain High

June inflation data released today by Statistics Canada showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.8% year-over-year (y/y), slightly below expectations. This was the lowest CPI reading since February 2022.

The decline in inflation was mainly due to lower energy prices, which fell by 21.6% y/y. Without this decline, headline CPI inflation would have been 4.0%. The year-over-year decrease resulted from elevated prices in June 2022 amid higher global demand for crude oil as China, the largest importer of crude oil, eased some COVID-19 public health restrictions. In June 2023, consumers paid 1.9% more at the pump compared with May.

Food and shelter costs remained the two most significant contributors to inflation, rising by 9.1% y/y and 4.8% y/y, respectively. Food prices at stores have risen nearly 20% in the past two years, the most significant rise in over 40 years. Shelter inflation rose slightly from 4.7% y/y in May.

The largest contributors within the food component were meat (+6.9%), bakery products (+12.9%), dairy products (+7.4%) and other food preparations (+10.2%). Fresh fruit prices grew at a faster pace year over year in June (+10.4%) than in May (+5.7%), driven, in part, by a 30.0% month-over-month increase in the price of grapes.

Food purchased from restaurants continued to contribute to the headline CPI increase, albeit at a slower year-over-year pace in June (+6.6%) than in May (+6.8%).

Services inflation cooled to 4.2% y/y from 4.8% y/y in May. This was due to smaller increases in travel tours and cellular services.

The Bank of Canada’s target range for inflation is 1% to 3%. While June’s inflation reading was within the target range, it is still higher than the Bank would like. The Bank raised the overnight policy rate twice in the past two months to reduce the stickier elements of inflation.

There were signs of easing price pressures for consumer goods also. Durable goods inflation continued to cool to 0.8% y/y in June. Passenger vehicle prices rose slower in June (+2.4%) than in May (+3.2%). The year-over-year slowdown resulted from a base-year effect, with a 1.5% month-over-month increase in June 2022 replaced with a more minor 0.6% month-over-month increase in June 2023. This coincided with improved supply chains and inventories compared with a year ago. Household furniture and equipment was up only 0.1% y/y in June, down from a peak of 10.5% last June.

The June inflation data provides some relief to consumers, but it is clear that food and shelter costs remain a major concern. The Bank of Canada will closely monitor inflation in the coming months to see if it is on track to return to its 2% target. There is another CPI report before the Bank meets again on September 6th.

The Bank of Canada’s underlying inflation measures cooled further in May. CPI-trim eased to 3.7%y/y in June from 3.8% y/y in May, and CPI-median registered 3.9% versus 4.0% y/y in May. The chart below shows the closely watched measure of underlying price pressures, the three-month moving average annualized of the core measures of CPI. They continue to be just under 4%.

Canadian inflation continued to make encouraging progress in June. However, the cooling in headline inflation benefits from sizeable base effects due to the favourable comparison to high energy prices last June. The Bank of Canada (BoC) is watching its preferred core measures, which continue to show glacial progress.

Bottom Line

It takes time for the full effect of interest rate hikes to feed into the CPI. Mortgage interest costs will continue to rise as higher interest rates flow gradually through to household mortgage payments with a lag as contracts are renewed.

BoC Governor Macklem emphasized last week that the Bank has become worried about the persistence of underlying inflation pressures in the economy. The June inflation data likely provides some reassurance that things are moving in the right direction, but not fast enough for the Bank of Canada to let its guard down.

The BoC is facing a difficult balancing act. It needs to raise interest rates enough to bring inflation under control, but it also needs to be careful not to raise rates so high that it causes a recession. The next few months will be critical for the BoC as it assesses the risks of inflation and recession.

(Courtesy of Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres)

 


Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Bank of Canada Hikes Policy Rate By 25 BPs to 5.0%–Highest in 22 Years

General Angela Calla 13 Jul

Interest Rates Will Stay Higher For Longer

The Bank of Canada increased the overnight policy rate by 25 basis points this morning to 5.0%, its highest level since March 2001. Never before has a policy action been so widely expected. Still, the Bank’s detailed outlook in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) suggests stronger growth and a longer trajectory to reach the 2% inflation target. The Bank of Canada believes the economy is still in excess demand and that growth will continue stronger than expected, supported by tight labour markets, the high level of accumulated household savings, and rapid population growth. “Newcomers to Canada are entering the labour force, easing the labour shortage. But at the same time, they add to consumer spending and demand for housing.”

The Bank forecasts GDP growth to average 1.0% through the middle of next year–a soft landing in the economy. “This means the economy moves into modest excess supply in early 2024, and this should relieve price pressures. CPI inflation is forecast to remain about 3% for the next year, before declining gradually to the 2% target in the middle of 2025.” This is about six months later than the Bank expected in April. This means that high-interest rates remain higher for longer.

While Canadian inflation has fallen quickly, much of the downward momentum has come from lower energy prices and base-year effects as large price increases last year fall out of the year-over-year inflation calculation. We are still seeing large price increases in a wide range of goods and services. Our measures of core inflation—which we use to gauge underlying inflationary pressures—have come down, but not as much as we expected.

There continue to be large price increases in a wide range of goods and services. Measures of core inflation have come down, but by less than expected (see chart below). One measure of core inflation–which removes food, energy and shelter prices, remains elevated and will likely continue to be sticky.

To remove base effects, the Bank looks at three-month rates of core inflation, which have remained at 3.5% to 4.0% since September 2022, almost a percentage point above the Bank’s expectations at the beginning of this year.

In addition, labour markets remain tight. Although the jobless rate has risen to 5.4%, that is still low by historical standards. The unemployment rate was at 5.7% when the pandemic began, which was considered close to full employment at the time. Job gains have been robust, with about 290,000 net new jobs created in the first six months of 2023. Many new entrants to the labour market have been hired quickly, and wage growth has been about 4% to 5%.

The faster-than-expected pickup in housing resales, combined with a lack of supply, has pushed house prices higher than anticipated by the Bank of Canada in January (see chart below). According to the MPR, “the previously unforeseen strength in house prices is likely to persist and boost inflation by as much as 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2023, compared with the January outlook.”

Bottom Line

As always, the next steps by the Bank of Canada will be data-dependent. Interest rates will remain higher for longer if the Bank is correct that inflation will not reach its 2% target until 2025. We also cannot rule out more rate hikes in the future. This morning, the US inflation data for June were released, showing a marked decline from 4% in May to 3% in June. Markets rallied worldwide, taking Canadian bond yields down despite the BoC tightening. The hardship caused by the continued rise in mortgage rates is already evident. OSFI recently announced the possibility of higher capital requirements for federally insured financial institutions on mortgages with loan-to-value ratios above 65% that have unusually high amortizations. This proposal is now out for consultation. It seems OSFI and the federal consumer watchdog are working at cross purposes.

(Courtesy of Chief Economist, DLC – Dr. Sherry Cooper)

 


Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Angela Calla on CBC National News Discussing Mortgage Strategies

General Angela Calla 13 Jul

Its been a stressful week for many with the increase in interest rates. Here is a segment we did with the CBC National that discusses some the strategies that can help you navigate these current times.

If you are up for mortgage renewal, or trying to plan for your future in these times. Click here for the segment  ( approx. 5 minute)

Please reach out to us to review your mortgage or if you would like an introduction to our financial planning partners


Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

‘Devastating news’: B.C. premier worries about rising interest rates for residents

General Angela Calla 13 Jul

B.C. Premier David Eby said the Bank of Canada interest rate rise Wednesday is “devastating news” for families that have debt.

“They borrowed money for various reasons to get through,” he said at the annual premier’s meeting in Winnipeg. “A lot of businesses in British Columbia borrowed money to get through the pandemic. They’re struggling under the weight of that debt.”

The Bank of Canada has raised its benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points, bringing it to levels not seen since 2001 amid fears the decline in inflation “could stall.”

Economists say the latest move is a warning to Canadians not to expect rate cuts anytime soon, and that future rate hikes are not off the table. The central bank’s key interest rate now stands at 5.0 per cent following back-to-back increases.

Eby said he worries about the full impact of the high key interest rate.

“You really do have to wonder when the Bank of Canada is going to take a pause and see what the impact of this is going to be,” he added. “We haven’t seen the full impact yet. People have not renewed their mortgages yet. And the businesses that are struggling under debt have not started going under yet. But they will those jobs will be lost. And it won’t just be in British Columbia. It’ll be across the country.”

Angela Calla, author of The Mortgage Code, told Global News that this interest rate means Canadians who do have a mortgage coming up for renewal in the next year should not wait to get their rate hold.

“Rate holds can be held for 120 days,” she said. “There is no cost to get a rate hold and then allow the timing of the market to determine what the best option is for you. We certainly don’t expect decreases in the next year, so having that in mind can give you the power to shop early with any mortgage renewal or purchase.”

Calla added that more increases are expected until the Bank of Canada gets inflation in line.

View the videos here: Global News


Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Bank of Canada Raises 25 Basis Points

General Angela Calla 12 Jul

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has made the decision to increase interest rates by 0.25% today.  You can view the announcement here: Bank of Canada Announcement

Here are a few key points to consider regarding this rate increase:

  1. Borrowing Costs:  With the rate hike, borrowing costs for individuals and businesses will likely increase. This affects mortgage rates, credit card rates, and loans. If you have any outstanding debt or are planning to take on new debt, it would be advisable to reassess your options and consider the potential impact of the higher interest rates. The financial impact it has is approx. $16 dollars per 100k in borrowed funds on a 25-year amortization. Ensure to get a rate hold if you are coming up for renewal or plan to make a purchase in the next 6 months.  Here is our app to download to see what a current payment can look like for you My Mortgage Toolbox.
  2. Fixed-Income Investments: The increase in interest rates may have an impact on fixed-income investments such as bonds and GICs. Generally, when interest rates rise, the value of these investments can decline. It would be beneficial to review your fixed-income holdings and discuss any necessary adjustments to your investment strategy with a financial planner, we can make an introduction for you by simply replying to this email address with your phone number.
  3. High Interest Savings Accounts: Interest rates are at an all-time high in today economic environment so those to looking to make a purchase in upcoming years can benefit from that silver lining along with the new First Home Savings Account.

If you have any questions or concerns regarding this rate increase or its potential impact on your mortgage or HELOC, for you or a loved one please feel free to reach out to us directly. We are here to support you and help you achieve your financial goals even in the face of market fluctuations.

 


Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Bank of Canada benchmark rate expected to reach a 22-year high of 5% this week

General Angela Calla 11 Jul

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to deliver a second consecutive quarter-point rate hike this Wednesday, which would bring its benchmark lending rate to a 22-year high of 5%.

It would also imply a similar increase to the prime rate by week’s end, bringing it to 7.20%. That would have an immediate impact on borrowers with a variable-rate mortgage or a personal or home equity line of credit.

Forecasts from all of the Big 6 banks, as well as 20 of 24 economists polled by Reuters, expect the Bank to hike rates at this week’s monetary policy meeting.

Observers say it’s unlikely that the Bank of Canada would have ended its rate pause last month for the sake of a single quarter-point increase, and that key economic data reports in recent weeks haven’t been weak enough to avert another hike.

“If the Bank thought policy wasn’t sufficiently restrictive on June 7, a single 25-bps rate increase last month probably wouldn’t be enough to bring things into balance,” economists from National Bank noted in a research note. “It’s true that recent data haven’t been as unambiguously strong as they were between the last two meetings, but data also probably weren’t weak enough to change their assessment in a material way.”

What the forecasters are saying…

On the rate decision:

  • National Bank: “The BoC has been notoriously difficult to predict this hiking cycle, half of their 12 decisions since January 2022 coming out different than markets anticipated going in. So our message is this: expect a hike… but don’t be shocked if the BoC holds. They’ve done it before, and they could very well do it again.”

On the Monetary Policy Report

  • BMO: “The 2023 GDP growth forecast will likely get an upgrade after the Q1 beat. In addition, Q2 GDP could get a modest bump higher from the 1% estimate in April. The Q3 forecast will be introduced, and expect something in the 0%-to-1% range. We’ll be watching to see if the upgraded growth history/near-term forecast impacts the timing of the closing of the output gap and, in turn, when inflation returns to the 2% target. Recall that the April MPR forecast had inflation returning to target at the end of 2024.”

On BoC guidance:

  • National Bank: “Looking ahead, we don’t think the BoC will explicitly guide to additional rate increases in the press release (just as they didn’t in June), but we also don’t expect another pause declaration. Rather, they might introduce some less aggressive language that stresses the importance of moving more cautiously at clearly restrictive policy settings. A ‘dovish hike’ would take the pressure off September and allow a full three months to assess the impact of these latest 50 bps of hikes (in addition to the earlier 425 bps). We do expect that July’s hike will be the last of the cycle as the economy more clearly weakens over coming months.”

On rate cuts:

  • Scotiabank: “It wasn’t long ago that markets were pricing BoC rate cuts to have been delivered by now. Note the plural reference. This easing of financial conditions was premature and the BoC had to lean against it in the face of the previously cited arguments. They have succeeded in doing so as markets have cried Uncle and are no longer pricing cuts this year or for much of next year for that matter.” (Source)

On inflation:

  • Scotiabank: “Given that inflation expectations are continuing to indicate little faith in the ability of the BoC to hit its 2% inflation target over the coming years, monetary policy is already in a race against the clock to convince businesses and households as they make decisions about potential wage gains, contracts, purchasing and investment. With each passing month that the economy remains resilient and inflation remains uncomfortably high, the BoC runs the risk of never getting control of inflation.” (Source)

On employment and GDP:

  • Desjardins: “With a full quarter of employment data, our tracking of Q2 2023 real GDP growth sits in the range of 1.5% to 2% (q/q annualized). That remains better than the 1% pencilled in by the Bank of Canada in its last Monetary Policy Report. The strong jobs print virtually assures another 25-bps hike at the Bank’s next meeting…and keeps the door open for more increases going forward. For the time being, the central bank should see the vitality of the labour market and resilience of the overall economy as warranting another rate hike.”

The latest Bank of Canada rate forecasts

The following are the latest interest rate and bond yield forecasts from the Big 6 banks, with any changes from their previous forecasts in parenthesis.

(Article courtesy of canadianmortgagetrends.com)


Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

The benefit of giving your kids a chunk of their inheritance before you die

General Angela Calla 8 Sep

There’s an old saying that it’s better to give with a warm hand than a cold one. Put another way, for many parents, there are benefits to gifting money to the next generation while you’re still alive or providing what’s known as a “living inheritance.”

There’s an emotional reward that comes with giving adult children money to buy a house, start a business or simply support their families, experts say, as well as financial benefits of reducing the value of your future estate. The trick is not giving away too much so that it spoils the kids, or worse, curbs your retirement lifestyle.

“Assuming parents are in a strong financial position to do so, and if there are excess funds beyond their income retirement needs, then that’s when gifting should often be considered,” says Kelly Ho, a partner and certified financial planner at DLD Financial Group Ltd. in Vancouver.

Many are doing just that. A CIBC poll shows more than half of Canadian parents have either given or plan to give a significant gift or early inheritance to their children or grandchildren, either because their offspring need the money or parents want to take pleasure in seeing their kids and grandkids enjoy the funds.

The main upside to giving while alive is “getting to see how the money is making their loved one’s life better or easier,” says Moira Somers, a Winnipeg psychologist specializing in behavioural finance.

Ms. Somers points to an example from her own life, several years ago, when her mother paid for a fence when her own family couldn’t afford it.

“Every time I look at that fence, it’s with gratitude to my mom, Ms. Somers says.

Living Inheritance and Reverse Mortgages 

Sometimes accessing finances are challenging especially if you want to give a “living inheritance”. Deferrals and reverse mortgages can be a great way to generate potential “living inheritance” for your kids and grandchildren. Watch my videos below to get better acquainted with reverse mortgages and referrals! 

Don’t hesitate to reach out to us for more information or any questions you might have.

Get Advice Before You Give 

Parents looking to provide a living inheritance to their kids should talk to their financial adviser first to make sure the sum doesn’t derail their own financial goals.

When well planned, the benefits can be many: from funding the grandchildren’s postsecondary education to helping adult children purchase a first home (or a vacation home) to saving for their own retirement or treating the entire family to a winter holiday in a warm climate.

There can also be financial benefits: Cash gifts, given while alive, will ultimately reduce the size of the estate, reducing probate fees costs and taxes on the estate, says Samantha Prasad, a partner in the tax group at law firm Minden Gross LLP in Toronto.

While gifting is common among her clients, she cautions they may not always foresee the potential impact of a gift on their tax and estate situation.

“It comes up all the time, but often along the lines of, ‘I did this. That’s okay, right?’ ”

There’s no gift tax in Canada, as there is in countries such as the United States, and no threshold for how much you can give, Ms. Prasad says.

However, she says so-called “attribution rules” may apply if you gift cash to a spouse, common-law partner or minor children or grandchildren and they use it for an investment.

“Any income from that investment can be taxed in the hands of the person who made the gift,” she says, adding it’s Canada Revenue Agency’s (CRA) way of preventing people from income splitting, which is the ability to sprinkle income to family members in a lower tax bracket.

Another misconception, she says, is that people can gift real estate, investments and certain family heirlooms without tax implications. Ms. Prasad says the CRA considers the exchange a deemed disposition, meaning any increase in value on these assets while owned by the parents may be subject to capital gains tax.

She says the best option is often giving money directly from savings, or selling an asset first, paying the applicable taxes, and then gifting the proceeds.

Regardless of how it’s done, Ms. Prasad says the will should be adjusted to account for the gifts made while alive.

“That won’t entail a full revision of the will,” Ms. Prasad adds. “But a memo should be attached noting who received the gift, its size and on what date,” ensuring division of assets remains fair among beneficiaries.

With the financial, tax and estate considerations taken care of, parents can then relish in witnessing their money doing good for their family, Ms. Somers adds.

“There are lots of problems that a gift of money can help solve,” she says. “It can be great at easing burdens, giving opportunities for experiences that might not otherwise be possible, and facilitate closer connections when an unreliable car or inability to pay for a plane ticket would have been a barrier.”

Source: The Globe and Mail


Angela Calla is a 17-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. She is without a doubt, a true expert in her field. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. 

In August of 2020, at the young age of 37, Angela surpassed $1 Billion dollars in funded personal mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click  here to view the latest news on our blog. 

living inheritance