Canadian Housing Observer coles notes

General Angela Calla 17 Nov

*CMHC released its 2009 Canadian Housing Observer yesterday.
 
*Most of its findings are dated back to year-end 2008, but it contains some interesting tidbits nonetheless.
 
*One key takeaway is the massive importance of Canada’s real estate industry. It’s a point that can’t be overemphasized, with housing-related spending accounting for one fifth of our economy.
 
*CMHC’s report says that as of December 31st, 2008, there were $903 billion worth of mortgages outstanding in Canada.
 
*Canadians say their top three financial priorities are retirement savings (50%), homeownership (47%) and regular payments to reduce or eliminate debt (41%), but not everyone puts their money where their priorities are, according to results released today for the RBC Financial Priorities Poll.
 
*Nearly half of Canadians with homeownership as a priority (47%) don’t put money towards it. Four-in-ten of those with retirement savings as a priority don’t put money towards this goal. Canadians were more successful with their debt reduction, with eight-in-ten putting money toward this priority.

Mortgage Bytes

General Angela Calla 17 Nov

Mortgage Bytes

*New home prices rose more than expected in September as Canada’s real estate market showed further signs of recovery. 
 
*Statistics Canada said last Thursday its price index rose 0.5% during the month – the biggest monthly increase since January 2008 – following a 0.1% gain in August. Economists had forecast an increase of 0.2% in September.
 
*Prices rose the most in Vancouver, up 1.4% from August, followed by Ottawa-Gatineau, up 1%. Calgary was 0.6% higher, and Toronto, Oshawa, ON and Saskatoon were all up 0.5%.
 
*The biggest declines were in Windsor, ON, down 0.7%, Sudbury, ON and Thunder Bay, ON, both down 0.5%, Victoria, off 0.2%, and Edmonton, where prices were 0.1% lower.
 
*Yesterday CAAMP released its fall consumer report, the Annual State of the Residential Mortgage Market in Canada.
 
*The report, compiled by Will Dunning, CAAMP’s Chief Economist, reveals that overall Canadians are optimistic yet cautious about the housing market rebound.
 
*Canadians are decidedly more optimistic this year about whether now is a good time to purchase a home: 61% feel that it is, nearly double the response from this time last year when only 38% felt that way.
 
*The report found two thirds of all mortgages are fixed for terms of four or more years, with five-year terms remaining the most popular at 56%. Many people who took out a mortgage in the past year, however, chose a shorter term, with 20% at one year or less.
 
*68% of mortgage holders have fixed-rate mortgages, while 27% have variable- and adjustable-rate mortgages. Fixed-rate mortgages are the most popular among people between the ages of 18 and 34, while those in the 55+ age group are more likely to prefer variable-rate mortgages.
 
*Canadians take out equity for two primary reasons according to the report: debt consolidation and renovations. One third of Canadians said the home renovation tax credit influenced their decision to renovate and 30% of equity taken out in the past year was for renovations ($12 billion of the total $41 billion in equity takeout), with an average take-out of $41,000). 

Home sales hit record high; outlook upgraded

General Angela Calla 17 Nov

Homes sales hit record high; outlook upgraded

John Morrissy, Financial Post 

OTTAWA — Home sales hit a new record high in October, leading the Canadian Real Estate Association to boost its outlook for 2009 and 2010.

Resale home activity was up 41.5% in the month, reaching a total of 42,288 units. On a seasonally adjusted basis, homes sold on the Multiple Listing Service totalled 45,818 units in October.

“Low interest rates and upbeat consumer confidence continue to release the pent-up demand that built late last year and earlier this year,” said CREA president Dale Ripplinger. “The release of that pent-up demand has boosted national sales activity to new heights and is drawing down inventories.”

Further, said Millan Mulraine, economics strategist at TDSecurities, “we expect the recent strong gains in the housing market to remain largely intact, though we suspect that the back-to-back double-digit advance in sales seen earlier this year may not be repeated.”

As a result of the sector’s strong performance, CREA increased its forecast for sales in 2009 by 6.6% to 460,200 units. For 2010, the national industry group said sales would rise 7% to 492,300 units.

The average home price also reached new highs in October, climbing to $341,079, up 20.7% from a year ago.

A separate measure, which limits its focus to Canada’s major markets, showed the average price rising 22.1% to $373,095.

At the same time, the sharp rise in housing demand has eaten into inventories. With 194,994 homes listed for sale in Canada at the end of October, the number of listings is 20.8% below the peak reached in October of last year.

It is the sixth month in a row in which inventories have fallen from year-ago levels, bringing supply to 4.1 months on a seasonally adjusted basis, the lowest level in more than two years.

CREA chief economist Gregory Klump said new listings are expected to rise in coming months in response to headline average price increases.

New monthly sales records were set in about one fifth of local markets in October, including Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa. On a provincial basis, new records were set in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec, largely as a result of increased activity in those provinces’ major markets.

Canwest News Service

 

The 3 year variable broken down

General Angela Calla 17 Nov

Variable-Rate Mortgages: 3- or 5-Year?

November 16, 2009 

We’ve seen a noticeable increase in the number of people making variable-rate mortgage inquires. 

Perhaps it’s because the media keeps reiterating how the Bank of Canada won’t be upping rates until at least Q3 of next year.

Whatever the case, the popular options for closed variable-rate mortgages have been:

  • 3-year variables near 2.15%
  • 5-year variables near 2.10%

Which is the better?  The answer is not that obvious.

If variable-rate spreads remain the same, then whichever mortgage has the lower rate will entail the lowest cost (other things being equal).

However, if variable-rate spreads change in 3 years, it’s a different story.  (Note: we’re talking about the spread from prime changing, not prime itself).

For example, suppose variable rates improve from today’s prime – 0.10% to prime – 0.35% in three years.  In that case, the 3-year variable comes out ahead—even though its rate was initially higher.  On a $200,000 mortgage amortized over 25-years, the 3-year variable strategy would be roughly $409 cheaper than the 5-year variable. (We’re assuming prime remains constant for simplicity sake.)

Now the question becomes, is $409 worth the risk of not having your variable spread locked in for five years.  What risk you say?  Well, about a year ago, variable rates soared as high as prime + 1.50%. That was thanks to the market’s sudden aversion to mortgage lending.

While it’s no longer probable, it is indeed possible that variable rates could once again rise above prime rate.  If, for example, you assign a 1 in 4 chance of variable rates moving to prime + 0.25% or higher in 3 years, then the expected value of the 3-year variable makes it more expensive then the 5-year.

In sum, if you’re looking for a new variable-rate mortgage, you can boil it down to this.

Other things being equal:

  •  
    • If you’re planning to lock your variable into a fixed rate within 3 years, go with the lowest possible variable rate mortgage–as long as it has a 4.25% (or less) fixed conversion rate, as of today.  [Mind you, if this is your plan, it’s worth talking to a mortgage professional about fixed-rate and hybrid mortgage alternatives.]
    • If you plan to let your variable rate ride, consider a 3-year as long as its rate is no worse than 0.10% above the 5-year.  The popular wisdom is that variable rate spreads will be better in 12-36 months.
    • Have your mortgage planner compare 1-year terms against the variable as well.

 

 

 

Start with a plan…..

General Angela Calla 13 Nov

Canadians interested in investing, but who lack a big lump sum to get started, should consider using an automatic savings plan, experts say.

Various financial institutions allow customers to make regularly scheduled investments into a wide variety of products, including mutual funds, registered retirement savings plans, registered education savings plans, tax-free savings accounts and high-interest savings accounts.

Automatic savings plans not only make it convenient for people to become disciplined investors, but those programs offer a slew of other potential benefits such as compound growth and dollar-cost averaging.

Peter Aceto, president and chief executive officer of ING Direct Canada, has used automatic savings programs himself and strongly recommends them to the bank’s clients.

“You are paying yourself first,” Aceto said. “Your lifestyle grows accustomed to saving. It is very, very good

discipline.”

Additionally, the program is easy to use, he said. Clients can choose to contribute on a weekly, biweekly or monthly basis. Next, they pick an amount they can afford and that money is automatically drawn and invested on a regular basis.

For its part, ING Direct offers automatic savings programs for mutual fund accounts, high-interest savings accounts, tax-free savings accounts and RRSPs. Aceto estimates that 30 per cent of the bank’s clients use automatic savings programs.

“We have no minimums because we think that people need to save no matter what,” said Aceto. “Whether it is $10 a month or $10 a week or $50 a month, it is a great way to start.”

Consumers who are shopping around for an automatic savings program should make sure they choose a financial institution that does not require minimums or fees.

The biggest hurdle to getting started, however, appears to be acquiring the initial discipline to invest or save on a regular basis. While it may seem like a daunting challenge, Aceto argues it can involve just simple changes to a person’s daily life.

“Look at what Canadians spend on certain things every day in terms of waste,” he said, noting most people could begin to save just by making coffee at home.

“There are a lot of things that we do during the day that would allow us to save $100 or $200 every month. And having the financial discipline to set up an automatic savings program can really, really force that hand.”

Moreover, building a healthy nest egg through regular contributions is a wise strategy during these difficult economic times. While the Bank of Canada predicts the economy is on the mend, the recovery is considered fragile.

Some economists predict the unemployment rate could continue to rise until mid 2010. Moreover, interest rates could begin increasing from their historic lows by mid next year.

“People who have savings can absorb changes like that a lot better. People who have less debt can absorb changes like that a lot better as well,” said Aceto.

The Bank of Montreal is also a proponent of regular investing and saving. BMO, however, calls its program a “continuous savings plan.”

Emmanuel Hergott, divisional sales leader at BMO Retail Investments, says continuous savings plans can be attached to a variety of accounts, including RRSP, RESP, TFSA and non-registered accounts.

That’s because clients’ long-term goals can be as diverse as saving for retirement, a rainy day, renovations, a wedding or even investing for their children’s education.

“Most Canadians tend to have their paycheques deposited on a bi-weekly basis. So to me, that is the starting point of the conversation,” Hergott said.

There are a number of potential benefits to using a continuous savings plan. They include convenience and compound growth.

Tax-free savings accounts, meanwhile, allow investments and savings to grow tax free. And spreading out RESP contributions is a less painful way to reach the ideal contribution amount of $2,500 per year.

Also, those who make regular RRSP contributions avoid the last-minute rush and panic associated with scrounging up a lump sum or borrowing funds before each year’s deadline. Regular RSP contributors may also have the opportunity to pay less tax during the year, BMO says.

“By notifying Canada Revenue Agency of your regular RSP contributions, you can pay less tax throughout the year instead of waiting for a tax refund,” the bank says on its website.

“Pick up a tax deduction waiver to notify your employer to deduct less income tax from each pay cheque.”

Dollar-cost averaging on certain investments is another possible benefit of regular investing.

“In layman’s terms, dollar cost averaging really works out to doing what we do when we go to the grocery store,” Hergott said, noting it is comparable to buying products on sale. “If they are on sale, I can buy more of them.”

That means when markets are down, an investor can buy more units of an investment vehicle, like mutual funds or stocks, with the same dollars.

Steve Geist, president of CIBC Asset Management, says the earlier a person starts saving and investing, the better.

“Unfortunately, when the opportunity to get started early is right there, it is certainly not top of mind,” he said, adding younger Canadians are often more focused on just living life.

“It is hard to get somebody, who realistically, retirement might be decades down the line, to think about some of these things.”

Younger Canadians, however, should be looking to maximize the benefits of having a longer saving and investing time horizon.

For instance, if a person has a goal to save $500,000 by age 65, the earlier they start, the easier it is to reach that goal.

If a person starts a regular savings program at age 25, he or she will need to save $201 a month to reach that goal – assuming an annual return of 7 per cent. Over that 40-year period, the person’s contributions of $96,480 would have an investment growth of $403,109. That means the total amount of the investment would be $499,589 at age 65.

But if that person waits until they are age 55 to start making regular contributions, he or she would have to save a whopping $2,907 a month (also assuming a 7 per cent annual return) to end up at roughly the same place.

In this case, the client’s contributions of $348,840 would have an investment growth of $151,219 over a 10-year period. That means the total amount of the investment at age 65 would be $500,059. With those examples in mind, Geist says Canadian youth should focus on saving what they can now even if their first jobs don’t come with fat paycheques.

“Twenty years later, while you might make twice the money, you’ll have a mortgage payment and kids and all sorts of things,” he said. “You may have less idle cash in your forties than you do in your twenties.”

Canadian Home Builders scramble to meet demand

General Angela Calla 10 Nov

Canadian home builders scramble to meet demand

Garry Marr, Financial Post 

The Canadian housing market’s surprising turnaround is spreading to new home construction as developers scramble to respond to a supply shortage that has sent pricing soaring for existing homes.

But any increase in construction on the new home side will likely not surface fast enough to feed the demand for housing that continues to be spurred on by record low interest rates.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Monday there were 157,300 units constructed last month on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, a 5.4% increase from a month earlier. Annualized starts at dropped as low as 118,500 in April.

“There is not a lot of inventory around,” said Gary Friend, president of the Canadian Home Builders’ Association, adding his industry has been careful not to speculate. “We have to watch our Ps and Qs, as we try to meet this demand.”

Any increase in supply would be welcomed as a shortage of new listings has lead to a spike in prices. The Canadian Real Estate Association said last month existing home prices across the country were up 13.6% in September from a year ago as a supply problem was evident in almost every city.

The shortage has yet to ease despite the suggestion higher prices would coax homeowners to sell. This month the Toronto Real Estate Board reported sale prices in October were up 20% from a year ago.

“The existing homes market is in short supply so we’ve gone from a buyer’s market to seller’s market. The way it gets linked is you get some spillover into the new homes market and that’s starting to happen,” said Bob Dugan, chief economist with CMHC.

The agency has already upped its forecast for new home construction for 2010 from 150,300 to 164,900. Even at that level though, construction is still well off the 211,000 new starts recorded in 2008.

Paul Ferley, assistant chief economist with the Royal Bank of Canada, said “at the margins” new home construction could help ease the housing crunch. “Builders are aware and will contribute where they can to advance construction activity but no they can’t turn on a dime.”

gmarr@nationalpost.com

Canadian Businesses Confidence Highest Since 2007

General Angela Calla 5 Nov

Optimism returns to Canadian businesses, confidence highest since 2007   By Julian Beltrame        OTTAWA — Canada’s business leaders are turning bullish about the economy after a year of doom and gloom, a new survey suggests.

The Conference Board of Canada’s fall business confidence survey finds corporate leaders believe the recession is finally over and that the economy will rebound in the next six months.

The mood of confidence is particularly strong considering that recent indicators, particularly gross domestic product data for July and August, were disappointing.

Yet 63 per cent of business leaders surveyed said they expect the economy to improve over the next half-year, as opposed to only seven per cent who thought it will deteriorate.

Significantly, about a year ago the responses were almost exactly reversed.

The 16-point surge in the fall survey brought the confidence index to 97.8, the highest level since 2007.

The survey of about 2,000 representative firms from across the country was conducted between Sept. 14 and Oct. 22.

“After a year of despondency, Canadian business leaders are sensing an end to the deepest recession in a generation,” the Conference Board said about the results.

“Respondents appear very encouraged by signs of nascent recovery. More than half the respondents believe the present is a good time to expand their stock of machinery and equipment.”

Despite the apparent optimism, business still said they were concerned about under-utilization in their production levels, with 29 per cent describing their operations as substantially below capacity.

As well, leaders said they were concerned about the impact a strong dollar will have on their sales, the still weak demand, and about the ease of obtaining financing.

But it is in the forward indicators that business leaders were decidedly optimistic.

Almost 61 per cent said they expected their financial position to improve in the next six months, and more than half expect better profitability.

As well, more than half said it was a good time to expand, with 16 per cent saying they expected to increase their level of capital spending by more than 20 per cent in the next six months.

The Conference Board’s survey is roughly in line with results obtained by the Bank of Canada in September. The central bank’s survey of businesses showed 69 per cent of large firms optimistic their sales would increase in the coming year, and 42 per cent saying they expected to shift to hiring.

Canada’s Quiet Economic Growth

General Angela Calla 4 Nov

Full Post
Posted Tuesday, November 03, 2009 12:06 PM
Newsweek

Canada’s Quiet Economic Strength

In the past year, distance from the U.S. has proved a great insulator from economic pain. China and Australia, literally on the other side of the globe, are humming along, while Mexico is suffering from a decline in U.S. imports. But our NAFTA neighbor to the north, Canada, has emerged from the morass in better shape than any developed economy. Since its brief recession ended this summer, Canada has been creating jobs (31,000 in September). The Canadian dollar–the loonie–is soaring against our dollar. “There is a buzz in Canada right now, which is as far apart as you could ever be from what’s happening south of the border,” said David Rosenberg, chief economist of Toronto-based asset manager Gluskin Sheff. 

While housing prices in Canada grew exuberant, lending standards never did. Canadian home buyers had to make down payments, funky interest-only loans were nowhere to be seen, and banks kept their leverage ratios in check. The result: mortgage default rates have been low, and no large Canadian bank has failed. The World Economic Forum ranks Canada’s as the world’s most sound banking system. And while exports of manufactured goods to the U.S. have been hit, Canada’s huge resource industries–oil, natural gas, agriculture, metals–have benefited from China’s continued growth. The exposure of Canada’s economy to the commodity sector is three times more intense than America’s. Add in robust capital inflows and a recovering housing market, and, strange as it seems to say, Canada is hot.

CMHC forcasts continued new housing rebound

General Angela Calla 3 Nov

CMHC forecasts continued new housing rebound

The Canadian Press

OTTAWA — The national housing agency is reporting that housing starts have started to recover and it expects the recovery to continue.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. predicts starts will reach 141,900 this year and increase to 164,900 in 2010.

The CMHC’s fourth-quarter market outlook forecasts housing markets will continue to strengthen over the next year as economic conditions improve.

It says demand for existing homes has rebounded and both new and existing home markets are characterized by lower inventory levels.

However, the national housing agency says the strong pace of sales in the second and third quarters partly reflects delayed activity and is not likely to be sustained.

The CMHC says it expects the level of sales to move back closer in line with anticipated economic conditions.

It predicts existing home sales will reach 441,300 units in 2009 and increase to 445,150 units in 2010, while the average price is expected to be $312,950 in 2009 and $324,500 in 2010.

 

Weekly Market Insight

General Angela Calla 2 Nov

October 30, 2009

Q. What can the Bank of Canada do about the value of the dollar?

A. Usually the Bank can use monetary policy to impact the value of the dollar. But given that the bank rate is already as low as it can go; the Bank cannot use monetary policy to weaken the dollar. But the Bank can intervene directly in the FX market by buying American dollars and selling Canadian dollars. History suggests that such intervention can be useful—at least to a degree. So far, the Bank is not talking about it but if the dollar regains upward momentum in the near future, such an action from the Bank is a real possibility.

Q. Will rising real estate prices force the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates?

A. It is very clear that the recent increase in house prices in Canada reflects a dramatic improvement in affordability. But is it too much of a good thing? The problem with any kind of a bubble is that, in most cases, you know that it’s happening, but you are not sure what do about it. Some argue that the Bank of Canada should raise interest rates in order to make housing less affordable. While this policy makes sense in a booming economy, it does not make sense in an economy that is still trying to find its poles.

The Bank will not raise rates just to deal with the housing market while sacrificing the rest of the economy and risk an even stronger Canadian dollar. So what to do? So far, the Bank is doing nothing, with the hope that we are simply stealing activity from next year. If that is the case then there is no urgency to do anything at this point. But if in the coming six months, house prices continue to rise at current rates and the economy is still in an early recovery mode, the market will start speculating about some direct intervention by the Bank/government in the housing market by altering current regulations regarding insurance and securitization.

Q  How sustainable is the economic growth in the US in the last quarter

A. The 3.5% third quarter GDP growth in the US is clearly unsustainable. Most of the increase was temporary in nature and reflects government spending and a short-lived improvement in the auto sector. My focus at this point is on US business investment which is still falling. That is important given that integral element in formatting the market’s current view is that the Fed will start hiking rates in the second half of 2010 and by that time, business capital spending in the US will be rising by no less than 5% on an annual basis. Given that business spending has been a huge contributor to the US GDP recession, the timing of its rebound will be critical to the timing of a turn to monetary tightening.

The conventional wisdom was that the US recession in the past year was consumer-led, as opposed to the investment-led recession of 2001. But the reality is that the current slump in capital spending is, infact, steeper than the IT meltdown. Back then, the burst of the bubble meant a 12% drop in real capital spending over a two-year period. Currently, as of the third quarter of 2009, and only a year removed from its peak, capital spending is already down by no less than 20%, qualifying it as the steepest slump in business spending in the post-war era. Even as a share of GDP, capital spending is already down to the

Another misconception is that the current decline in US business spending is largely due to the weak state of the American commercial real estate market. But the reality is that, so far, the largest slump in spending was in the machinery and equipment category, which is now down by 21% since the beginning of the recession, compared to a 15% decline in the non-residential real estate component.

Note that the descent in non-residential investment began 6-8 months after spending on machinery and equipment started its nosedive. This suggests that the adjustment in non-residential real estate investment is still in its early stages. Add to it the high correlation of this business investment category with employment growth and the fact that the industrial vacancy rate is now at a dazzling 12%—a record high and a full five percentage points above levels that in the past signaled a recovery, and it becomes painfully clear that any hopes of a turnaround in non-residential real estate investment by mid-2010 are nothing more than wishful thinking.

So, the continuing decline in business investment next year will leave the market’s overall US economic growth expectations light on fuel. While talk in some quarters of a double-dip recession looks to be too gloomy given the huge stimulus still flowing next year, the long wait for a capital spending turn will keep overnight rates at highly stimulative levels for longer than the market now thinks.

Q. To what extent monetary and fiscal policies are coordinated?

A. Officially the Bank of Canada is independent, but it does not mean that it does not take fiscal policy into account while making decisions regarding interest rates. And given the fact that by 2011, fiscal policy will act as a negative for the economy as government will stop spending and start looking for ways to reduce the deficit, it is highly possible that this situation will work to postpone the first hiking move by the Bank, or at the minimum, limits the magnitude of the tightening cycle.

 

Senior Economist

CIBC W