Here’s a true story that shows why it matters who you trust with your mortgage.

A young couple recently had their mortgage declined by their bank — even though they were fully qualified. Why? The branch adviser misread their income, and once the file was declined, there was no second chance. They lost out on a great rate and valuable time.

The truth is, bank advisers are generalists, while mortgage brokers specialize in navigating lender policies, income complexities, and the best ways to get your file approved. Full story here: https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2025/10/opinion-think-twice-before-handing-your-mortgage-to-a-bank-adviser/

At the Angela Calla Mortgage Team, our advice is free, completely unbiased, and focused only on what’s best for you — not any one bank. 

We work with multiple lenders to find the right fit, protect your credit, and help you make confident, informed choices for your financial future.

 I share more stories like this — and how to avoid these costly mistakes — in my book “The Mortgage Code.” https://www.amazon.ca/Mortgage-Code-Helping-Property-Mistakes-ebook/dp/B07HFHR8TV?dplnkId=a8cf0153-1b54-4044-962a-5df1166a181d&nodl=1

 If you or someone you care about is buying, renewing, or looking to consolidate debt, reach out to my team today. Let’s make sure your mortgage is in the right hands!

Angela Calla is a mortgage renewal and debt elimination expert with over 20 years of industry experience. She is also a multi-award-winning mortgage professional. Since beginning as a mortgage broker in 2004, Angela has helped thousands of Canadians optimize their mortgage strategies, eliminate debt, and build wealth through real estate.

She is the best-selling author of The Mortgage Code, which equips readers with the tools to make informed financial decisions. Additionally, she is the host of Canada’s longest-running finance radio show on CKNW, where she simplifies mortgage advice and empowers listeners to take control of their financial futures.

Angela has been recognized as Business Leader of the Year (2020) by the Tri-Cities Chamber of Commerce and Entrepreneur of the Year (2019) by the City of Port Coquitlam. She is also a sought-after speaker and educator, delivering accredited training for real estate boards across Greater Vancouver.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Welcome to the October issue of my monthly newsletter!

PSL (or pumpkin spice latte for the unfamiliar) season is in full swing and love it or hate it, a 20-million-latte-strong annual sales figure (for Starbucks alone!) is a cultural phenomenon. It’s undeniably the flavour of fall in North America, supporting a billion-dollar plus industry and blanketing a massive cross-section of products. Heck, if there was a PSL mortgage, I’d be selling it. Whether you’re picking up that pumpkin party-in-your-mouth beverage to get you through a house hunting expedition, to power you up to replace an appliance at home, or just to enjoy while reading this newsletter – you’re not alone. My question to you is – are you a PSL purist, a seasonal treat sampler, or immune to the pull of the pumpkin altogether?!

Don’t Get Spooked! First-Time Homebuyer Tips for a Smooth Process

Buying your first home – no matter what your age – is a significant life event. It can bring up all kinds of stresses, both financially and emotionally. Being prepared for what’s to come can put your mind at ease. So, as an expert in the process, here are my best tips to minimize stress, and avoid hiccups and surprises throughout the process.

1. Set Limits: Allot a maximum amount of time for house shopping and scrolling on socials, websites, etc. per day. Don’t get overwhelmed by browsing homes for hours on end, listening to everything you hear on social media, etc.
2. Build Your Team: You’ll need a real estate agent you’re comfortable working with, a lawyer to review documents, a thorough home inspector, and a mortgage broker to get your financing in order. It’s okay to meet a few of each profession and make sure you get the right team lined up. Asking for a referral is a great way to find that perfect someone.
3. Get Pre-Qualified & Pre-Approved: Using a mortgage calculator (or downloading my app) will help you determine what mortgage payments and subsequent home shopping budget you’d qualify for. A pre-approval looks more carefully at your credit score and income, giving you an estimate what a bank would lend YOU. A mortgage broker is the perfect person to help you get it.
4. Create a Budget – And Stick to It: Once you know what your downpayment and ongoing mortgage payments will be, you’ve got to also consider the other costs of buying a home (like an inspection, moving, closing fees, legal fees, etc.). Know how much cash upfront you’ll need and don’t overspend leading up to a home purchase.
5. Spend Time in Prospective Neighbourhoods: It’ll minimize surprises about the neighbours and habits of the residents, plus you’ll get familiar with routines like school buses, playground zones, garbage days and more.
6. Lower Your Expectations: Thinking you’ll a home that’s 100% perfect, at the price you want, with no one else bidding on it… well that’s not very realistic. So set out the absolute must-haves, consider what you can compromise on, and don’t get too wrapped up in just one house. Take your time and wait for one that fits your budget and your (lowered) expectations.
7. Monotask: If you’re trying to choose between houses, calculate expenses, hire a mover, rent a carpet cleaner, and declutter your home all at once, you’ll become scattered and ineffective. Instead of multitasking and trying to get everything done at once, pick just one task at a time and work on that exclusively.
8. Try a Daily Affirmation: Choose something “I am making good financial decisions every day to support buying a home” or “I remain optimistic about finding my future home” or “I trust that my realtor is working in my best interest” and repeat it when you feel stress over the purchase, process, or whatever else is bothering you.
9. Enlist a Support System: If you’re feeling overwhelmed, lean on someone for support. That might be your broker if you’re confused about a process or requirement or a friend who recently bought a house to confirm their experience. It might even be your family or friends to vent or a gym buddy to get a stress-relieving workout in. Don’t ignore the stress as it can build throughout the process.

Hardest hit by unaffordability and condo overbuilding, the extended GTA—The Golden Horseshoe — suffered the most in the downturn and is expected to suffer the most from the US tariffs. The auto and steel sectors have already endured substantial layoffs, and household surveys suggest that the fear of being laid off in the next year has risen meaningfully.

Parts of BC have also seen a decline in activity, with prices falling, but not to the same extent as in Ontario. Balanced, if sometimes tight, conditions are driving property values higher in most of the Prairies, Quebec and parts of Atlantic Canada. In contrast, high inventory is depressing values in Ontario and British Columbia. Toronto experienced what we believe will be a temporary pause in August, following its gradual upturn.

These developments are in line with our view that rebuilding market confidence will support a slow recovery in the second half of 2025 and set the stage for stronger demand in 2026. There is pent-up demand for housing, and sellers are motivated. Many have been on the market for months, and reality has seeped in. Prices have fallen.

Local data shows that the MLS Home Price Index has fallen again in Toronto, Hamilton, Calgary, Edmonton, the Fraser Valley, and Vancouver—all of which are being weighed down by abundant inventory.

Strong construction has contributed most to the inventory build-up in Calgary and Edmonton.

The Toronto area took a breather in August after four months of solid advances. Home resales dipped slightly by 1.8% from July, seasonally adjusted, with continued softness in condos weighing on activity. Resales were up 2.3% year-over-year.

Falling interest rates, recent price drops, higher inventory and easing trade war concerns will gradually drive up activity.

The mild and broad price correction continued last month. The area’s composite MLS HPI edged 0.1% lower from July seasonally adjusted to $978,100—extending a year-long downtrend.

The condo price index fell the most, -7% from a year ago, but all categories saw a correction, including single-detached family homes (-5.6%).

We expect property values to continue falling while the market regains a firmer footing. But, affordability—while improving—will remain a big issue.

The economic backdrop shows signs of stress as labour markets have weakened and excess capacity is rising. The two most recent labour reports showed employment losses in both July and August, totaling more than 100,000 positions, while the jobless rate hit 7.1% last month, up by half a percentage point since January. The economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter—the most significant decline since the pandemic — reflecting a considerable drop in exports. Business investment is also weak, as is residential construction.

Recent economic weakness will likely outweigh the bank’s concerns about firm core inflation over the past few months. A broad range of underlying price pressures showed some cooling.

The average of the Bank of Canada’s two preferred core measures decelerated to 3.05%, from 3.1% in July. The three-month moving average of these core rates held steady at 2.52%.

Shelter inflation slowed to 2.6%, while CPI excluding food and energy decelerated to 2.4%. CPI excluding eight volatile components and indirect taxes held steady at 2.6%. Still, the share of components within the consumer price index basket that are rising by 3% or more — another key metric closely watched by policymakers — rose to 39.1%, from 37.3% in July.

The Bank of Canada cut the policy rate by 25 bps on September 17, taking the overnight rate to 2.5%–half the level posted at the high of 5%. The central bank is likely to cut rates one or two more times this year. The Governing Council meets again on October 29 and December 10.

And that’s a wrap for October! I hope you all have a candy-filled spooky season and manage to sort out your costumes before the 31^st. Happy Halloween and see you back here in November.

Welcome to the September issue of my monthly newsletter!

September is a polarizing month – back to school and the end of summer but also the beginning of fall and pumpkin spice everything season. And honestly, this month’s newsletter articles are polarizing too. When looking at the fall housing market, experts are polarized in their predictions on market conditions. And when it comes to a financial audit, deciding what spending mistakes you’ve been making and how to make changes might be polarizing too!

So, enjoy the articles, and here’s hoping we have more sunny days before the month races to an end.

The Fall Forecast: Cooling Temps, Hot Market Moves

Fall 2025’s real estate market theme is perhaps best summed up as “wait and see”. The spring market was flat. Experts have mixed reports about the national average home prices for the remainder of the year. Most (CREA, CMHC, etc.) predict a drop between 1.7-3.2%, but Royal LePage is an outlier still echoing their early year prediction of 3.5-5% price increase.

There are some notable regional differences. In Alberta, Saskatchewan and Quebec, they could see sales at historically high levels and faster price growth. Big Ontario and BC market declines are overshadowing these numbers and lowering the national average.

Biggest factors in the home-buying market this fall

1. Affordability: the high cost of living – especially buying a home – is more than many new buyers can afford. The average MLS price for a home currently nearly $680,000. Homebuyers need big down payments, longer term loans, and will pay much more interest over the lifetime of the mortgage – none of which are appealing. Many are saying no thanks.
2. US trade disputes: 49% of prospective buyers have chosen to hold off on a purchase because of impending tariffs and their ripple effects. A resolution could lead to a quick market turnaround, but there’s no way to know what’s coming.
3. Economic cooling: unemployment, slower population growth and a mild recession are all contributing to a slower fall housing market.
4. Rental market: Condo completions are surging, flooding the market and finally cooling off demand. People have more rental options, with potentially lower rates, which negates the need to buy. Also of note is slower household formation, meaning fewer people are looking to move out of their parents’ homes and in with their new spouse or partner.
5. New builds: Builders are seeing reduced demand and cutting back production accordingly. Current tariffs are increasing the material costs for new homes, another reason to delay starts. The CMHC is predicting only 226,600 home starts for 2025.

What about rates?

The Bank of Canada has paused interest rate drops since April, which has given potential mortgagees pause. There is still one more rate cut predicted this year which could turn the market around.

Initially, the CMHC was estimating 5-year fixed rates between 5.3-5.7% this year, but with that now out the window and lower rates currently available, the remainder of 2025 is the ideal time to get a mortgage for anyone who doesn’t already have one or imminently needs to renew. With a potential Bank of Canada rate cut looming, variable rates are also still attractive.

Is anyone opting to buy this fall?

Yes! Resale homes are gaining market share, with somewhere between 464,600 and 524,600 homes expected to change hands in 2025.

There are also two main buyer demographics:

1. Millennials: With remote work declining, they need to buy homes closer to their jobs. Urban market resale homes will likely be their prime targets.
2. Renewals: Those needing to renew their mortgages will consider their actual needs vs their existing home. Downsizing to save costs or upsizing to accommodate changing family needs are big factors. This is the ideal time to make a move without (mortgage) penalties.

What does all this mean?

We’ll all be waiting to see what happens. If you want to buy, there is more supply and the lowest rates we’ve seen in a while. If you want to sell, the resale market is your friend. Either way, I can help you work out the mortgage you’re going to need.

Adulting 101: Back-to-School Budgeting for Real Life

If it’s time for you to stop rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic and start a purposeful financial audit – I’ve got you. Here we’re going beyond gathering statements, categorizing expenses and hoping to reduce spending. I’m going to give you the motivation to take action by looking at the WHY, WHAT, and HOW to get you into a different mindset with better results.

Why do a financial audit?

Auditing your finances is all about identifying how you’re spending your hard-earned cash. An audit works because it uncovers money pits you didn’t realize you’d fallen in, and gets you thinking about your financial goals. An audit will:

• Identify overspending patterns
• Calculate the true cost of ownership of items like a vehicle, your home, etc.
• Catch any fraud or transaction errors
• Pinpoint areas of spending to limit or reduce
• Highlight items you’re automatically paying for but not using
• Reallocate resources to higher priority items
• Help you meet life goals that require money (like a degree, a home or the trip of a lifetime)

So, if that sounds good, it’s time to get started. What you need to ask yourself during an audit:

To get your finances on track, first get to the root of your current spending. Here’s what to ask yourself:

• What are your goals for your earnings?
• What are your life goals?
• How much do you *think* you spend vs how much do you *actually* spend on things like entertainment, shopping, and other non-essentials?

Sometimes the biggest shock of a financial audit is how different your expectations are from your reality. So let’s now figure out what you should still spend money on, and what you shouldn’t. Here’s what to ask yourself:

• What spends bring you the most joy?
• What items could you skip or cut back without much negative impact?
• What spends contribute towards your life and financial goals?

You probably can’t afford (and don’t need) everything you feel like spending money on. You’ll have to make choices. A financial audit shows your financial pitfalls and puts those spending traps into perspective against your goals.

How to stay committed:

You found a reason to conduct this financial audit, figured out what spending to cut back on, and now it’s time to action your findings. How? Step one is to set both short and mid term goals in specific time frames and reward yourself when you achieve them. SMART goals never looked better.

If it works for you, find a free app to track your card taps, and set alerts so you know immediately when you’ve gone off track. If that’s not for you, here are more strategies on how to stay committed and accountable:

• Make a visual of your goal – print a picture, make a vision board, etc.
• Share your goals with someone that will help keep you accountable
• Treat it like the first year of dating – celebrate small milestones, talk about it with your friends, and ignore the sacrifices you’re making
• Distract yourself when you’re tempted to spend – go for a walk, do a craft, get outside, make a puzzle, whatever gets you away from temptation
• Make it a game, like a week-long no-buy or going one month without eating out. You can give it a fun name like ‘dine-in December’ or ‘the week without’
• Make a direct correlation between the amount something costs and the number of hours you have to work to get it. If you earn $40/hour, and something costs $200, you’ll have to work for 5 extra hours to earn it. Is that worth while?

For the times when you’re getting derailed and need some reprieve, here’s how to make that work:

• Try to use up gift cards, store credit or points (like Optimum or Aeroplan) on the out-of-budget items
• Need more cash? Use marketplace or Kijiji to sell things you don’t need or want

Auditing your spending isn’t about guilt—it’s about gaining clarity. With a clear picture of where your money typically goes, and what you’d really like to use it for, you can make smarter choices and set yourself up for future financial success.

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper

The Bank of Canada has maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75% since March 12. This was the seventh consecutive cut since mid-2024, when the Bank began lowering the rate from 5.0% in response to a potential economic slowdown caused by increased trade tensions with the United States.

Very early in the new Trump administration, tensions emerged as the president threatened to place sizable tariffs on Canadian imports not covered by the Canada-US-Mexico free trade agreement (CUSMA). President Trump has increased tariffs on non-CUSMA-compliant goods from Canada from 25% to 35%, effective August 1.

It is currently estimated that roughly 80% of Canadian exports are CUSMA-compliant, headed for 89% in the coming months. This has kept the lid on the overall tariff burden. In June, 77% of Mexican imports met the trade pact’s country of origin criteria, up from 42% May. Fitch rating service estimates the compliance proportion will rise to 83%.

In addition, there is a 50% tariff for all countries’ exports of steel and aluminum into the US. There is a 10% tariff on non-CUSMA-compliant potash, oil, and gas products. And a 50% tariff on some copper products.

Most important for Amazon shoppers, the US eliminated the de minimis treatment for low-value shipments. Goods valued at $800 or less are now

subject to all applicable duties (effective August 29).

Other tariffs are on the table. These include tariffs on Canadian lumber, which would be in addition to the existing 14.7% tariffs, as well as on Canadian dairy products. Semiconductors and pharmaceuticals are also under consideration for tariffs, though no details have been provided.

Reflective of Canadian resiliency, the Canadian services sector is holding up relatively well, but the export-heavy industries such as manufacturing and transportation are bearing the brunt of the impact.

The burning question for the Bank of Canada is how inflationary these tariffs will be. Indeed, some of the tariffs will be passed off to consumers. While theoretically tariffs lead to a one-shot uptick in prices, they don’t necessarily cause inflation—a continuous rise in the general price level.

But, as the latest data for July suggest, while headline inflation remains muted at 1.7% year-over-year, the Bank of Canada’s favoured measures of inflation average 3.05%–too high for comfort. Unless the August CPI data show a marked slowdown in core inflation, the Bank will likely retake a pass on September 17.

On the same date, traders are now signalling that the Federal Reserve will cut rates. I’m not so sure. The US economy is too resilient, and inflation is not close enough to 2.0% for Fed officials to muck around with easing. The widespread expectation that they will ease anyway in September is lifting stocks, and the actual event may cause a stock market melt-up.

The Fed left policy rates unchanged on July 30 for the fifth consecutive confab over the past seven months. The statement’s economic assessment

was slightly more downbeat, in line with the data on the ground. The risk assessment didn’t refer to uncertainty as having “diminished”, with the August 1 tariff announcements looming. And, Governors Bowman and Waller dissented in favour of a quarter-point rate cut. The vote was 9-to-2, with Governor Kugler absent and not voting. (Two days later, Kugler announced her resignation.) In the press conference, Chair Powell said: “We see our current policy stance as appropriate to guard against inflation risks. We are also attentive to risks on the employment side of our mandate.

Another key determinant of central bank policy is the strength of economic growth, as reflected in the employment data–a far timelier indicator than the GDP data. For example, while we still haven’t seen the number for second-quarter GDP growth in Canada, we have monthly employment data through the end of July.

This and other leading indicators, such as the stock market, suggest that the slowdown in economic activity has been more moderate than many feared. The layoffs are growing in the hardest-hit sectors—steel, aluminum, autos and parts—the jobless rate for July was steady at 6.9%.

So, the BoC is likely to have another ‘wait and see’ meeting. But the one sector that has declined significantly in the past year is housing. This provides a golden opportunity, especially for first-time and move-up buyers.

Home prices have fallen, and in many regions (GTA and GVA), sellers are motivated. Supply has increased sharply, and multiple-bidding situations are rare.

All potential buyers should be out there looking for bargains because

everything is on sale (as well as for sale). Finally, mortgage rates are low—yes, low.

We will not see a return to two-handle mortgage rates, barring another global pandemic. And, even then, the central banks would know better than to take rates down so much, for so long.

The July data showed an uptrend in housing activity. We are likely looking towards a relatively strong Fall marketing season.

Angela Calla is a mortgage renewal and debt elimination expert with over 20 years of industry experience. She is also a multi-award-winning mortgage professional. Since beginning as a mortgage broker in 2004, Angela has helped thousands of Canadians optimize their mortgage strategies, eliminate debt, and build wealth through real estate.

She is the best-selling author of The Mortgage Code, which equips readers with the tools to make informed financial decisions. Additionally, she is the host of Canada’s longest-running finance radio show on CKNW, where she simplifies mortgage advice and empowers listeners to take control of their financial futures.

Angela has been recognized as Business Leader of the Year (2020) by the Tri-Cities Chamber of Commerce and Entrepreneur of the Year (2019) by the City of Port Coquitlam. She is also a sought-after speaker and educator, delivering accredited training for real estate boards across Greater Vancouver.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

This morning, the Bank of Canada announced a 0.25% rate cut bringing the prime rate with most banks down to 4.70% (from 4.95%). The full press release is HERE.

What this means: for every $100,000 of mortgage balance, interest may drop by about $13/month. While this change impacts variable and adjustable-rate mortgages, and home equity lines of credit it’s important to note that it is not directly tied to fixed rates.

At the Angela Calla Mortgage Team, our role goes far beyond watching rates. We provide:

– A full rate look-back upon closing to ensure you secure the lowest cost of borrowing available for your circumstances.

– Guidance if your mortgage is up for renewal – so you don’t leave money on the table.

– Strategies to eliminate outside debt and improve cashflow.

– Support if you’re planning large expenses or looking to purchase a home in this shifting market.

Click on the link to watch our Global News Morning segment.

The next Bank of Canada rate announcement is coming October 29^th then the final one for the year December 10th, and we’ll continue keeping you informed every step of the way.

If you’d like to review how this change affects your situation, simply reply to this email or call us at 604-802-3983. We’re here to help you build and protect your wealth.

Angela Calla is a mortgage renewal and debt elimination expert with over 20 years of industry experience. She is also a multi-award-winning mortgage professional. Since beginning as a mortgage broker in 2004, Angela has helped thousands of Canadians optimize their mortgage strategies, eliminate debt, and build wealth through real estate.

She is the best-selling author of The Mortgage Code, which equips readers with the tools to make informed financial decisions. Additionally, she is the host of Canada’s longest-running finance radio show on CKNW, where she simplifies mortgage advice and empowers listeners to take control of their financial futures.

Angela has been recognized as Business Leader of the Year (2020) by the Tri-Cities Chamber of Commerce and Entrepreneur of the Year (2019) by the City of Port Coquitlam. She is also a sought-after speaker and educator, delivering accredited training for real estate boards across Greater Vancouver.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady As Tariff Turmoil Continues

As expected, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75% at today’s meeting, the third consecutive rate hold since the Bank cut overnight rates seven times in the past year. The Governing Council noted that the unpredictability of the magnitude and duration of tariffs posed downside risks to growth and lifted inflation expectations, warranting caution regarding the continuation of monetary easing.

Trade negotiations between Canada and the United States are ongoing, and US trade policy remains unpredictable.

While US tariffs are disrupting trade, Canada’s economy is showing some resilience so far. Several surveys suggest consumer and business sentiment is still low, but has improved. In the labour market, we are seeing job losses in the sectors that rely on US trade, but employment is growing in other parts of the economy. The unemployment rate has moved up modestly to 6.9%.

Inflation is close to the BoC’s 2% target, but evidence of underlying inflation pressures continues. “CPI inflation has been pulled down by the elimination of the carbon tax and is just below 2%. However, a range of indicators suggests underlying inflation has increased from around 2% in the second half of last year to roughly 2½% more recently. This largely reflects an increase in prices for goods other than energy. Shelter cost inflation remains the biggest contributor to CPI inflation, but it continues to ease. Surveys indicate businesses’ inflation expectations have fallen back after rising in the first quarter, while consumers’ expectations have not come down”.

The Bank asserted today that there are reasons to think that the recent increase in underlying inflation will gradually unwind. The Canadian dollar has appreciated, which reduces import costs. Growth in unit labour costs has moderated, and the economy is in excess supply. At the same time, tariffs impose new direct costs, which will be gradually passed through to consumers. In the current tariff scenario, upside and downside pressures roughly balance out, so inflation remains close to 2%.

The central bank provided alternative scenarios for the economic outlook. In the de-escalation scenario, lower tariffs improve growth and reduce the direct cost pressures on inflation. In the escalation scenario, higher tariffs weaken the economy and increase direct cost pressures.

So far, the global economic consequences of US trade policy have been less severe than feared. US tariffs have disrupted trade in significant economies, and this is slowing global growth, but by less than many anticipated. While growth in the US economy looks to be moderating, the labour market has remained solid. And in China, lower exports to the United States have largely been replaced with stronger exports to other countries.

In Canada, we experienced robust growth in the first quarter of 2025, primarily due to firms rushing to get ahead of tariffs. In the second quarter, the economy looks to have contracted, as exports to the United States fell sharply—both as payback for the pull-forward and because tariffs are dampening US demand.

The gap between the 2.75% overnight policy rate in Canada and the 4.25-4.50% policy rate in the US is historically wide. Another cause of uncertainty is the fiscal response to today’s economic challenges. The One Big Beautiful Bill has passed, and it will add roughly US$4 trillion to the already burgeoning US federal government’s red ink. This has caused a year-to-date rise in longer-term bond yields, steepening the yield curve.

The slowdown of the housing sector since Trump’s inauguration has been a substantial drain on the economy.  The Monetary Policy Report (MPR) for July states that “growth in residential investment strengthens in the second half of 2025, partially due to an increase in resale activity after the steep decline in the first half of the year. Growth in residential investment is moderate over 2026 and 2027, supported by dissipating trade uncertainty and rising household incomes.”

Bottom Line

We expect the Canadian economy to post a small negative reading (-0.8%) in Q2 and (-0.3%) in Q3, bringing growth for the year to 1.2%. The next Governing Council decision date is September 17, which will give the  Bank time to assess the underlying momentum in inflation and the dampening effect of tariffs on economic activity.

If inflation slows over the next couple of months and the economy slows in Q2 and Q3 as widely expected, the Bank will likely cut rates one more time this year, bringing the overnight rate down to 2.50%, within the neutral range for monetary policy. Bay Street economists have varying views on the rate outlook (see chart above). While the Fed will hold rates steady today, despite the incredible pressure coming from the White House, the Bank of Canada could well cut rates one more time this year.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

The Bank of Canada has just made its latest announcement HERE —and while there was no rate cut this round, many experts anticipate future reductions later this year. Upcoming rate decision dates to keep an eye on:  September 17, October 29, December 10, 2025.

In the meantime, we’re in a true buyer’s market. With more inventory, motivated sellers, and more flexible conditions, we’re seeing many first-time homebuyers jump off the sidelines and into action. If you, or someone you know, has been waiting for the right moment, this could be it.

As always, we’re here to help with:

• Pre-approvals and planning
• Mortgage renewal and refinance strategies to save thousands
• Introductions to trusted realtors, planners, and legal professionals

Here is our free app to download and get pre qualified in 45 seconds – My Mortgage Toolbox

If you have any questions about your current mortgage or want to explore opportunities in today’s market, just reply to this email or reach out directly.

Please note, our office will be closed, Monday, August 4th for BC Day.

Let’s make your mortgage work for you!