Navigating the Rising Mortgage Rates: Selling vs. Renting – Angela Calla On Global News

General Angela Calla 5 Oct

In today’s uncertain economy, making financial decisions can be a daunting task. Have you ever found yourself or a loved one contemplating the idea of selling your home and reverting to renting? It’s a question that’s been on many Canadians’ minds lately. In this article, we’ll explore various options and strategies to help you stay in your home despite the challenges posed by rising mortgage rates and a limited housing supply.

 

Understanding the Landscape:

The current real estate market in Canada presents some unique challenges. Mortgage delinquencies are stable, and home prices continue to soar due to an influx of newcomers and a constrained housing supply. Families, however, are facing difficulties finding rental properties, making renting not a viable option for everyone. Moreover, interest rates are expected to rise further, with at least one more hike in the near future. Additionally, 1/4 of mortgage renewals are scheduled in the next 2 years, making it a critical time for homeowners to evaluate their strategies.

 

Exploring Your Options:

Here are some strategies we can help you with to navigate these challenging times:

 

Switching to Lenders with Longer Amortizations: Consider switching to lenders offering longer amortization periods, which can help reduce your monthly mortgage payments and ease financial strain.

 

Debt Consolidation: Consolidate debts outside your mortgage to potentially save hundreds or even thousands of dollars in interest.

 

Modification of Payment Strategies: Instead of accelerated payments, opt for reduced minimum payments, instantly improving your cash flow by up to 8 percent.

 

Equity Loans: Explore the option of obtaining an equity loan to create a financial buffer for your family.

 

Reverse Mortgages for Those Over 55: If you’re 55 or older, consider a reverse mortgage as a source of income.

 

Multigenerational Family Planning: Plan for lump sum contributions from family members as early inheritances to help pay down your mortgage.

 

Relocating Within BC or to AB, Winnipeg, or Sask: If your employment allows, consider moving to areas with more affordable housing options.

 

Budget Adjustments:

Many clients are taking proactive steps to realign their finances:

 

Reducing Car Expenses: Some are downsizing to one-car households or opting for less expensive vehicles.

 

Income from Renting: Taking in students or renting out parking/storage spaces can provide extra income.

 

Turning Passion into Profit: Transforming hobbies or passion projects into income-generating activities.

 

Adjusting Spending Habits: Reviewing and cutting back on unnecessary expenses.

 

Conclusion:

Navigating the complex world of mortgages and homeownership in today’s economic climate requires careful planning and expert advice. If you’re seeking personalized mortgage advice for you and your family, don’t hesitate to reach out to us directly at 604-802-3983 or via email at angela@countoncalla.ca.

 

[Link to Video and Full Article: https://globalnews.ca/news/10000476/mortgage-rates-rising-bc-selling-versus-renting/] Navigating the Rising Mortgage Rates: Selling vs. Renting

 

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Angela Calla on Global News

General Angela Calla 26 Sep

With Wednesday’s relief of the Bank of Canada holding rates, here is a quick segment we did on Global News if you missed it (watch here).

Our hope is that with this pause we will also see a little bit of relief with fixed rates in upcoming weeks, before we evaluate what the Banks of Canada decided to do In October and December.

1 in 5 Canadians will have a mortgage renewal upcoming in 2024, so starting to plan now is ideal.

If you or a loved one have questions on a mortgage, please reach out to us directly by replying to this email or calling us at 604-802-3983 for personalized mortgage advise.

 

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

CMHC’s Eco Improvement

General Angela Calla 26 Sep

Apply for a partial premium refund of 25% if you’re CMHC insured and working on energy efficient renovations to your recently purchased home.

CMHC Eco Improvement aims to reduce the environmental impact of housing by supporting energy-efficient improvements. Apply for a 25% partial premium refund if you’re insured with CMHC and you’re spending at least $20,000 in energy efficient renovations. The program is available for both home buyers and individual condo buyers.

It aligns with CMHC’s commitment to combat climate change and the Canadian government’s goal of carbon neutrality by 2050.

Read more here: CMHC’s Eco Improvement

 

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Tempting Rates

General Angela Calla 20 Sep

Beware of Tempting Rates! 🚫💰

Some rates seem too good to be true, and they often are. 😲 Lenders may offer specials, but you’ll lose important mortgage terms and conditions. The bona-fide sales clause locks you with the lender until your term ends (ex. the whole 5 years), limiting your options.

They may also restrict prepayment privileges, preventing you from saving on interest. 💰

Don’t be lured by a slightly lower rate—committing long-term to a limited deal isn’t worth it. ❌

All of this and more in my book (https://loom.ly/uDw_e-k) on Amazon or Audible

#themortgagecode #theangelacallamortgageteam #author #mortgagebroker #mortgageexpert #tricites #countoncalla

Contact us today! callateam@countoncalla.ca or 604-802-3983!

 

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Understanding Responsibilities of being a Co Signer or Guarantor on a Mortgage

General Angela Calla 18 Sep

With changes in qualifying rates, increased housing prices, changes in relationship, it’s not uncommon for a parent, or sibling, aunt or cousin or even strangers to consider working together to achieve there home ownership dreams. The ability to buy a spouse out or even obtain a better mortgage renewal to improve your finances are most Canadians desire and that brings up a very important question.

What will the lenders approve for you to do?

Will they insist that all borrowers are co signer/borrowers? Or ,will they allow a party to the mortgage to go on as a guarantor? Is either of those what the other desires for as they plan for the future?

Being a co-signer or guarantor on a mortgage in British Columbia, Canada, can have significant financial, tax and legal implications. It’s important to understand the pros and cons of each role before making a decision. Here’s an overview of the advantages and disadvantages of being a co-signer vs. a guarantor:

 

Co-Signer:

Pros:

Helps Qualify for the Mortgage: Being a co-signer can help someone who might not otherwise qualify for a mortgage due to insufficient income or credit history. Your strong financial position can strengthen their application.

Shared Responsibility: As a co-signer, you share the responsibility for the mortgage payments and any associated debt. This can provide a sense of security for the primary borrower.

Builds Credit: If the mortgage is paid on time and in full, it can positively impact your credit score, as the account is reported on your credit history.

Cons:

Financial Responsibility: Co-signing makes you equally responsible for repaying the mortgage. If the primary borrower defaults, you’re obligated to cover the payments. This can lead to financial strain or damage your credit if payments are missed.

Risk to Assets: If the primary borrower defaults and the property is foreclosed upon, your assets may be at risk if the sale proceeds don’t cover the outstanding mortgage balance.

Limited Control: You have limited control over the property. You don’t have full ownership rights, but you’re responsible for the debt. This impacts your ability to obtain credit for borrowing for yourself in future as this loas is included in your ratios. Not living in the property also will trigger property transfer tax and future capital gains taxes potentially.

 

Guarantor:

Pros:

Assists with Qualification: As a guarantor, you provide a guarantee that the primary borrower will fulfill their mortgage obligations. This can help them secure the mortgage.

Limited Liability: Your financial liability is limited to the guarantee amount specified in the contract. You’re not automatically responsible for mortgage payments.

Maintain Ownership: Unlike co-signers, guarantors typically do not have any ownership stake in the property, so your personal assets are less likely to be at risk.

Cons:

Risk of Paying: While you’re not automatically responsible for payments, if the primary borrower defaults, you may be called upon to cover the mortgage, which can affect your financial stability. This also will be calculated in your ratios limiting future borrowing power. If not living in the property, property purchase tax and capital gains may be applicable

Credit Risk: Being a guarantor can impact your credit if the primary borrower defaults and you’re called upon to cover the mortgage payments.

Limited Control: Similar to co-signers, guarantors don’t have control or ownership rights over the property.

Difficulty Removing Guarantee: It can be challenging to remove your guarantee from the mortgage, as this typically requires the primary borrower to meet certain financial criteria and refinance the loan.

Before becoming a co-signer or guarantor, it’s crucial to carefully review the mortgage agreement and consider consulting with a legal and tax advisor. Additionally, open and honest communication with the primary borrower about their financial responsibility is essential to avoid potential conflicts and financial hardships down the road. It is the borrowers responsibility to ensure they have consulted the appropriate parties prior to funding a mortgage.

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Co-ownership on the rise: How Canadians are responding to housing affordability challenges

General Angela Calla 18 Sep

While many people decide to co-own a home for cultural reasons or to help take care of elderly parents or young children, more Canadians are now turning to co-ownership as a means to combat housing in-affordability.

In 2023, 6% of Canadians said they co-own their home with someone other than a spouse or significant other, with two thirds (76%) of those saying their decision was motivated by affordability challenges, according to a Royal LePage survey.

For those between the ages of 25 and 34, a full 83% said their decision was driven by a lack of affordability.

Of those who currently co-own, 89% are co-owning with a family member, 7% co-own with friends and 8% are co-owning with someone who isn’t a friend or family member.

Nearly half of the respondents say they and their fellow co-owners live in the home together. Another 28% don’t cohabitate while 6% say the property is not used as a primary residence.

A tale of two brothers

British-Columbia-based mortgage broker Angela Calla of the Angela Calla Mortgage Team said she recently worked on a deal involving two brothers in Surrey who decided to purchase a home together.

The brothers were both single, in their mid-twenties and living with their parents while working in the trades. They wanted to move out, but rather than renting, they decided to purchase a home together so they could start building equity, Calla says.

They were each earning about $70,000 a year and could save about $2,500 per month while living with their parents. They ended up purchasing a condo worth $600,000 and made a 10% down payment, contributing $30,000 each.

“Now they were saving money monthly and they were also building equity,” says Calla.

To arrange this, they worked with a lawyer to outline the rules of their agreement, with one important item in their contract being that they can’t have partners living at the house, which could open the door to family law. While this was a small sacrifice, Calla says it was worth it to the brothers, who view this purchase as a stepping stone to being able to purchase their own homes in the future.

“They bought for less than they could be approved for because they know that they’re young and that the next stage of their life would mean that they get in relationships,” says Calla. “You definitely need to consult a lawyer and consider that the life stage that you’re in right now is not the life stage that you’re going to be in in a few years.”

Calla emphasizes that in all cases of co-ownership, it’s essential to meet with a lawyer to discuss the terms of the agreement and how conflicts will be handled should they arise.

“Be very crystal clear about having the discussions about the hard aspects of what can happen,” says Calla. “Speaking to a lawyer who is expert in that is going to be a good guiding force for you in terms of how you’re going to handle those situations when they come together.”

Corporate co-ownership programs on the rise

There has also been a rise of companies dedicated to offering co-ownership options for those wanting to get into the housing market, but who don’t have the means to do so on their own.

One such company is Toronto-based Ourboro, which co-invests up to $250,000 towards a buyer’s down payment, which in turn earns the company a share of the future value of the home.

Lorne Andrews, principal broker at DLC Expert Financial, said he has personally referred many of his clients to Ourboro.

He said one of the advantages of this option is that the homeowners get to live in the home alone and are responsible for the mortgage payments on their own. This helps them build equity and potentially a larger down payment for a better mortgage contract in the future.

“There are many people out there who could afford to qualify for the mortgage, but they don’t have a 20% down payment,” says Andrews. “This could be a great way for people to get involved a lot sooner and not that many people know about it.”

Ourboro requires buyers to have at least a 5% down payment and then they will contribute the remaining amount to get them up to a 20% down payment. Having an uninsured or “conventional” mortgage allows the buyers to get a longer amortization period that would be possible with an insured mortgage. It also allows them to save on default-insurance fees.

“We always recommend this as a stepping stone,” says Andrews. “Get into a home today, build equity, cash out, now go buy your home with the equity that you’ve built in this home over the first four or five years.”

Co-owning is a rising trend in an unaffordable market

Whether deciding to co-own a home with another person or company, co-ownership is quickly rising as an option for many to get a foothold in a housing market that is becoming increasingly unattainable.

“Different generations of families living under one roof is not a new phenomenon, but has been growing in popularity in recent years,” said Karen Yolevski, COO at Royal LePage.

“In a market beset by reduced home supply, escalating prices, tightened mortgage qualification requirements, and the highest borrowing rates in more than two decades, many buyers are having difficulties securing the property that they want,” she added. “By dividing the cost of a home between more people, Canadians can not only get their foot on the property ladder more easily, but also expand their home search to more desirable locations or larger properties that may not have been accessible with their budget alone.”

 

(Article courtesy of Canadian Mortgage Trends featuring Angela Calla)

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Province Caps Annual Rent Increase

General Angela Calla 11 Sep

Province caps annual rent increase well below inflation

For the second consecutive year, B.C.’s maximum allowable rent increase is being set below the inflation rate. The maximum increase for 2024 will be 3.5%.

“Across the country, costs have been increasing — especially for housing — at a rate that’s unsustainable for many people,” said Ravi Kahlon, Minister of Housing. “We know that’s the case for both landlords and renters, and that’s why we’ve found a balance to protect renters while helping to keep rental units on the market.”

The rent cap of 3.5% is well below the 12-month average inflation rate of 5.6% and applies to rent increases with an effective date on or after Jan. 1, 2024. If landlords choose to increase rent, they must provide a full three months’ notice to tenants using the correct Notice of Rent Increase form. B.C. landlords can increase rent only once every 12 months.

The Province has been taking steps to support renters throughout British Columbia. Before 2018, the annual allowable rent increase was based on the inflation rate plus 2%. Following a recommendation by the Rental Housing Task Force, the rent increase was reduced to just the inflation rate. A rent increase freeze was put in place in 2020 and 2021 to support renters during the COVID-19 pandemic. To protect renters from high inflation in 2023, the Province capped rent increases at 2%, well below the 5.4% inflation rate that would have otherwise applied.

“With renters facing a possible rent increase of almost 6%, the government listened to the voice of renters and acted, and I’m so glad they have,” said Spencer Chandra Herbert, Premier’s Special liaison for Renters, former chair of the Rental Housing Task Force and MLA for Vancouver-West End. “We also know people renting out homes are facing increased costs and want to make sure they continue to make places available for long-term renters.”

The 2024 maximum allowable rent increase is significantly less than what it would have been prior to changes made by the Province in 2018 that limited rent increases to inflation. As inflation returns to normal levels, the Province intends to return to an annual rent increase that is tied to B.C.’s Consumer Price Index in future years. Under the previous government, maximum rent increases could include an additional 2% on top of inflation. This change has saved families hundreds of dollars.

Since 2017, the Province has taken steps to better protect renters, including banning illegal renovictions and strengthening the financial penalties for landlords who evict tenants in bad faith. A renoviction is an eviction that is carried out to renovate or repair a rental unit. 

In addition, government provided the Residential Tenancy Branch (RTB) with $15.6 million in additional funding to improve services and reduce delays. The capacity of the RTB’s Compliance and Enforcement Unit was also increased to allow for earlier interventions and to eliminate the need for hearings in the first place.

Quick Facts:

  • If a landlord served a tenant with a Notice of Rent Increase that takes effect in 2023 using the 2024 annual allowable rent increase, it is null and void and the tenant does not have to pay it. They must follow the set rent increase for 2023.
  • The maximum allowable rent increase is defined by the 12-month average per-cent change in the all-items Consumer Price Index for B.C. ending in July the year prior to the calendar year for which a rent increase takes effect.
  • For example, if a rent increase takes effect in 2025, the maximum allowable rent increase is the 12-month average per-cent change in the all-items Consumer Price Index for B.C. ending in July 2024.
  • The 2024 maximum increase for manufactured-home park tenancies will be 3.5%, plus a proportional amount for the change in local government levies and regulated utility fees.
  • The rent increase does not apply to commercial tenancies, non-profit housing tenancies where rent is geared to income, co-operative housing and some assisted-living facilities.

 

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Bank of Canada Holds The Overnight Policy Rate Steady at 5%

General Angela Calla 6 Sep

Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady Acknowledging Economic Slowdown

With last Friday’s publication of the anemic second-quarter GDP data, it was obvious that the Bank of Canada would refrain from raising rates at today’s meeting. Economic activity declined by 0.2% in Q2; the first quarter growth estimate decreased from 3.1% to 2.6%.

Today’s press release announced, “The Canadian economy has entered a period of weaker growth, which is needed to relieve price pressures.” The Q2 slowdown in output reflected a “marked weakening in consumption growth and a decline in housing activity, as well as the impact of wildfires in many regions of the country. Household credit growth slowed as the impact of higher rates restrained spending among a wider range of borrowers. Final domestic demand grew by 1% in the second quarter, supported by government spending and a boost to business investment. The tightness in the labour market has continued to ease gradually. However, wage growth has remained around 4% to 5%.”

Lest we get too comfy with a more dovish stance in monetary policy, the central bank warned that the Governing Council remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability.

Inflationary pressures remain broad-based. CPI inflation rose to 3.3% in July after falling to 2.8% in June. Much of the rise in July was caused by the statistical base effect. Nevertheless, current harbingers of inflation remain troubling. The increase in gasoline prices in August will boost inflation soon before easing again. “Year-over-year and three-month measures of core inflation are now running at about 3.5%, indicating little recent downward momentum in underlying inflation. The longer high inflation persists, the greater the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched, making it more difficult to restore price stability.”

The Bank also continues to normalize its balance sheet by letting maturing bonds run off. This quantitative tightening keeps upward pressure on longer-term interest rates.

Tiff Macklem and company concede that excess demand is diminishing and the labour markets are easing. The unemployment rate rose to 5.5% in July, up from a cycle low of 4.9%, and job vacancies continue to decline. Net exports have slowed, and the Chinese economy has weakened sharply. Consumers are tightening their belts as the saving rate rose and household spending slowed markedly in Q1.

Monetary policy actions have a lagged effect on the economy. As mortgage renewals rise, peaking in 2026, the economic impact of higher interest rates will grow. Homeowners renewing mortgages this year are seeing roughly a doubling in interest rates.

The Governing Council will focus on the movement in excess demand, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate price decisions.

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada, though independent, is coming under increasing political pressure. In an unusual move, the premiers of both BC and Ontario have publicly called for a cessation of rate hikes. Even so, the BoC is keeping its hawkish bias to avoid a bond rally that could trigger another boost in the housing market, similar to what we saw last April. The government bond yield is hovering just under 5%, having breached that level recently with the release of robust US economic data.

There are two more meetings before the end of this year, and many are expecting another rate hike in one of those meetings. The odds of this are less than even, given the downward momentum in the economy.

The central bank’s next decision is due October 25, after two releases of jobs, inflation and retail data, gross domestic product numbers for July and an August estimate.

(Courtesy of Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres)

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Rate Hikes Off The Table With Weak Q2 GDP Growth In Canada

General Angela Calla 1 Sep

Rate Hikes Are Definitely Off The Table

The Canadian economy weakened surprisingly more in the second quarter than the market and the Bank of Canada expected. Real GDP edged downward by a 0.2% annual rate in Q2. The consensus was looking for a 1.2% rise. The modest decline followed a downwardly revised 2.6% growth pace in Q1. (Originally, Q1 growth was posted at 3.1%.) According to the latest monthly data, growth dipped by 0.2% in June, and the advance estimate for economic growth in July was essentially unchanged. This implies that the third quarter got off to a weak start.

The Bank of Canada forecasted growth of 1.5% in Q2 and Q3 in its latest Monetary Policy Report released in July. The central bank is now justified in pausing interest rate hikes when it meets again on September 6th. Today’s report is consistent with the recent rise in unemployment. It suggests that excess demand is diminishing, even when accounting for such special dampening factors as the expansive wildfires and the BC port strike.

Some details of Q2 Growth

Housing investment fell 2.1% in Q2, the fifth consecutive quarterly decline, led by a sharp drop in new construction and renovations. No surprise, given the higher borrowing costs and lower demand for mortgage funds, as the BoC raised the overnight rate to 4.75% in Q2. Despite higher mortgage rates, home resale activity rose in Q2, posting the first increase since the last quarter of 2021.

Significantly, the growth in consumer spending slowed appreciably in Q2 and was revised downward in Q1.

Bottom Line

The weakness in today’s data release may be a harbinger of the peak in interest rates. Inflation is still an issue, but the 5% policy rate should be high enough to return inflation to its 2% target in the next year or so. As annual mortgage renewals peak in 2026, the increase in monthly payments will further slow economic activity and break the back of inflation.

The Bank of Canada will be slow to ease monetary policy, cutting rates only gradually–likely beginning in the middle of next year. In the meantime, the central bank will continue to assert its determination to do whatever it takes to achieve sustained disinflationary forces.

Today’s release of the US jobs report for August supports the view that the Canadian overnight rate has peaked at 5%. (The Canadian jobs report is due next Friday). Though the headline number of job gains in the US came in at a higher-than-expected 187,000, the unemployment rate rose to 3.8% as labour force participation picked up, growth in hourly wages was modest, and job gains in June and July were revised downward.

In Canada, 5-year bond yields have fallen to 3.83%, well below their recent peak shown in the chart below.

 

(article courtesy of Dr. Sherry Cooper – Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres)

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Bank of Canada to hold rates steady on Sept. 6; home prices to fall in 2023: Reuters poll

General Angela Calla 30 Aug

BENGALURU, Aug 30 (Reuters) – The Bank of Canada is expected to hold its key interest rate steady at 5.00% on Sept. 6 and stay at that level through at least the end of March 2024, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll, with a small but growing minority expecting one more rate rise.

Inflation, which the Canadian central bank targets at 2%, rose more than expected to 3.3% in July, and further price rises continue to be the upside risk to expectations the BoC has already reached its terminal rate.

The housing market, where prices surged about 50% during the coronavirus pandemic and have fallen only about 10% from their peak, is also showing signs of a revival, with forecasters in a separate Reuters poll raising price expectations for this year.

For the time being, an expected slowdown in economic growth to 1.1% in the second quarter and a rise in the jobless rate gives Bank of Canada policymakers plenty of room to leave interest rates unchanged next week.

Thirty-one of 34 economists polled Aug. 24-30 expect no change to the central bank’s overnight rate (CABOCR=ECI), with the remaining three expecting a 25-basis-point rise. Interest rate futures are pricing in no change next week, but are nearly split over whether rates rise once more.

“Our base case call at the moment is for them to keep the overnight rate steady at 5.00% … (and) throughout the rest of this year,” said Claire Fan, an economist at RBC.

Fan pointed out that by the October meeting, policymakers will have two more job market and inflation reports to consider.

In the latest poll, eight of 34 economists expect one more rate rise to 5.25% by the end of this year, compared with only one in a July poll. In response to an additional question, 60% of respondents, 12 of 20, said the risk of the central bank raising rates once more from the current level was high.

“We expect the Bank will hold the overnight rate steady at 5.00% through mid-2024 as the full impact of past rate hikes helps push the economy into a moderate recession. Still, additional BoC rate hikes are possible if economic growth is stronger than we anticipate,” said Tony Stillo, the director of Canadian economics at Oxford Economics.

A majority of economists, 24 of 34, expect the central bank will keep its policy rate at the current level or higher until at least the end of March 2024. The median shows 50 basis points worth of cuts by the end of June next year, in line with expectations for the U.S. Federal Reserve.

A scenario in which Canadian interest rates stay higher for longer could increase pressure on highly-indebted households, with almost 20% of Canadian mortgages due for renewal next year.

The Aug. 14-29 poll of 13 property analysts forecast average home prices would fall 5.0% this year, less severe than the nearly 9% drop expected just three months ago. Analysts expected a 12% fall in home prices at the beginning of the year.

“We’re not anticipating further rate increases from the Bank of Canada, but that threat alone is enough to keep buyers on the sidelines for the rest of this year,” said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

“It won’t be until early next year … when it becomes clear the bank’s next move is to lower rates, that we’ll see the housing market strengthening once again.”

The prospect of higher mortgage repayments on ever-more expensive property, along with record immigration, is expected to drive further demand for rentals.

When asked what will happen to average rents for the rest of 2023, all 10 analysts said they would either rise slightly (5) or rise significantly (5). A majority of analysts also said rental affordability would worsen over the coming year.

“I think rents will continue to rise across Canada because of the shortage of housing that we’re seeing and the underlying sturdy demand,” BMO’s Guatieri said.

(courtesy of reuters.com)

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