Client Testimonial – Suhail’s Mortgage Journey

General Angela Calla 11 Jul

From Frustrated Bank Client to Empowered Homeowner: Suhail’s 12-Year Journey with the Angela Calla Mortgage Team

After a frustrating experience with his bank’s high-pressure sales tactics, Suhail knew he needed a different kind of support when it came to his mortgage. That’s when he saw our commercial during a hockey game—and decided to give us a try.

Over a decade later, Suhail and his family are still part of our mortgage family. In a recent interview on CKNW, he shared how the Angela Calla Mortgage Team helped them:

  • Move away from bank-style pressure and toward professional, client-first advice
  • Receive proactive check-ins to stay ahead of market shifts
  • Stay focused on achieving mortgage freedom through regular communication and expert planning

“I didn’t want to be sold insurance or credit cards—I wanted a mortgage specialist,” Suhail said. “And that’s exactly what I got with Angela and her team.”

This kind of long-term relationship is what we strive for with every client. Whether you’re refinancing, renewing, or buying your first home, we’re here to guide you with confidence.

 Want to get started?

Email: callateam@countoncalla.ca

Call/Text: 604-802-3983

Download our app for free tools and resources

Check out The Mortgage Code for more inspiration

 

Angela Calla is a mortgage renewal and debt elimination expert with over 20 years of industry experience. She is also a multi-award-winning mortgage professional. Since beginning as a mortgage broker in 2004, Angela has helped thousands of Canadians optimize their mortgage strategies, eliminate debt, and build wealth through real estate.

She is the best-selling author of The Mortgage Code, which equips readers with the tools to make informed financial decisions. Additionally, she is the host of Canada’s longest-running finance radio show on CKNW, where she simplifies mortgage advice and empowers listeners to take control of their financial futures.

Angela has been recognized as Business Leader of the Year (2020) by the Tri-Cities Chamber of Commerce and Entrepreneur of the Year (2019) by the City of Port Coquitlam. She is also a sought-after speaker and educator, delivering accredited training for real estate boards across Greater Vancouver.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

July Newsletter

General Angela Calla 3 Jul

Welcome to the July issue of my monthly newsletter!

Welcome to July, the month of the festival here in Canada! There’s something for everyone, from the Calgary Stampede to Caribana in Toronto and Shambhala in Salmo or even Just For Laughs in Montreal. Or maybe you’re dreaming of getting away from it all – making this newsletter perfect for you!

This month we’re covering vacation homes and backyard projects, both of which will help you escape and unwind.

This month’s fun fact: Did you know both the lightbulb and insulin were invented in July (in 1874 and 1922 respectively) – right here in Canada?

Dreaming of a Vacation Home?
Here’s What You Need to Know?

If you’re interested in buying a vacation home, there is a lot to consider. A good first step to purchasing any vacation home is to think about your 5- and 10-year plan.

Will you get enough use out of it?

Do you have other more immediate or important financial goals?

What’s the opportunity cost?

If you’re set on the vacation home, but don’t plan on paying cash for the property, the next step will be to plan how to finance it. Here’s what to ask yourself:

  • Do you have enough saved for a downpayment? A second property could need anywhere between 5-20%+ downpayment. Some factors to consider are if it’s winterized, mortgage insurance requirements in relation to the purchase price, etc.
  • Can you afford the purchase? Your income will have to be such that you can take on the additional debt, so consider calculating your debt servicing ratios and see how much room you have within your current situation. Use 39% for GDS and 44% for TDS ratios as the maximum to secure funding from a bank.
  • Will the location/property be eligible for financing? Remote locations or properties outside Canada may not qualify for a mortgage, so you might need to get creative.
  • Will it be owner-occupied or an investment property? Depending on who lives in or uses the dwelling, there will be different mortgage and tax implications.

If you’re in a good place to move forward with purchasing a vacation home, the next step is selecting a location. A few considerations:

  • Current and future development of the area
  • Municipal services available
  • Transportation to and from your property
  • Long term property value
  • Seasonal access issues

Another big factor in purchasing a vacation home is deciding what will happen to it while you’re not there. Will you rent it out? Will you have a property manager? What’s needed to keep the insurance valid on the property?

If you’re not sure about any of what you’ve just read, a great first step is to get in touch! As your mortgage broker, I can help you calculate your debt servicing ratios, determine what you’re eligible for, and come up with creative financing solutions if needed. We can look at second mortgages, reverse mortgages, and other options to get you into the property of your dreams.

Summer Backyard Projects

Summer in Canada goes by fast! Make the most of it by spending time in your outdoor space. There are plenty of projects you can undertake to help you enjoy the space you have even more, whether it’s a small patio or a big yard.

 

Here are some suggestions!

For Patio Space Only:

  • Add tiles to the concrete flooring for a grass, panel or wood look (here are a few options)
  • Install a pull-down movie screen (or get a folding stand) and add a mini projector to watch movies outside
  • Get some planters that hang over your railing and grow an herb garden
  • Give it some pizazz by wrapping twinkle lights around the railings
  • Furnish with a baby-que to maximize BBQ season and your space (Weber’s Q series might have something that strikes your fancy)

For Small Yards:

  • Add small-footprint and storage-friendly games like axe throwing or a mini putt hole for some fun
  • Buy a heating lamp for your seating arrangement and make nights more enjoyable
  • Build or install a garden box and grow tomatoes, cucumbers, or other veggies
  • DIY a bird bath from glassware – a vase, a platter and some crazy glue are all you need to make a pedestal style option (and you might already have everything you need at home!). Here’s how!

For Big Yards:

  • Build a catio (cat patio for those not yet in the know) for your feline friends to enjoy the outdoors safely
  • Install a permanent fire pit with stones, a fire ring, and even smoke prevention cutouts – like this!
  • Pave or tile a seating area for outdoor dining and entertainment

Not enough inspiration here to quench your outdoor project thirst? Take a look through Home Depot’s backyard ideas, complete with materials and DIY instructions to make them happen.

I hope you’re able to get outside and enjoy the nice weather while it lasts. See you back here in August!

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper

Canadian economic data have come in weaker than expected since early May. Despite this, markets are not looking for another rate cut in July unless core inflation falls meaningfully. Amid a sizeable trade shock, lingering uncertainty, and a potential war with Iran,  the economy’s growth outlook is softer than most forecasters predicted a year ago.

The unemployment rate continues to rise, consumer confidence plummeted in the spring and hesitancy around business investment remains. Despite aggressive easing by the Bank of Canada, housing remains wobbly.

The BoC began lowering interest rates well ahead of many global peers, with a significant 225 basis points of monetary policy easing already in the pipeline. Yes, the BoC was unnerved recently by firmer-than-expected inflation in April. But, critically, that upward surprise likely had more to do with resilient consumer spending, particularly on non-housing-related discretionary services, than with the impact of tariffs.

We also expect a limited impact on inflation from Canada’s retaliatory import tariffs, which means that monetary policy will remain flexible and act as a traditional buffer for the economy. The central bank will need to consider potential additional support that could come from government spending, but overall, it has the room to cut interest rates further if needed.

There are two streams of fiscal support in play in Canada that produce upside risks worth monitoring.

First, Canada maintains meaningful capacity to buffer against economic shocks if required, regardless of the political landscape. Government net debt levels are still low relative to the size of the economy compared to other advanced economies. That is less true compared to the shrinking number of triple-A-rated economies. Still, provincial and federal governments have signalled willingness to step in and support trade-impacted sectors if needed.

This fiscal room provides an important backstop for the economy that shouldn’t be underestimated, particularly compared to its global peers (and the US). Moreover, it is a shift from earlier this year when it appeared Canada might need to buffer a trade shock alone. Now, global peers are engaged in fiscal expansion that helps to maintain Canada’s relative fiscal place.

A formal spending plan has yet to be presented by the newly elected federal government, but there has been movement on a range of items that can provide support to 2025-2026 growth. Action on interprovincial trade barriers could pay long-run dividends, helping to support investment and productivity growth. Tax deferrals, loan programs, and employment insurance measures are available to help trade-related sectors through shorter-run disruptions. And now announcements related to defence could add significantly to growth in 2026.

Second, the US-induced trade shock has turned global attention towards the needs of the global economy in the future, and which countries are best equipped and positioned to support them. Canada’s resources—agriculture, energy, and critical minerals—are increasingly well positioned to support the needs of the global economy, particularly as it seeks to expand AI/data and defence spending.

Canadian exporters appear to be less targeted with specific US tariffs, but they are still tied to the performance of the US economy, particularly in the heavily trade integrated manufacturing sector.

This was a problem for Canada in the immediate aftermath of Liberation Day on April 2. Broad-based global tariffs imposed by the US on all of its trade partners raised the risk of a US recession and, therefore, a Canadian one. However, the de-escalation of US tariffs supports a slow but resilient outlook for the US, improving Canada’s prospects as well.

Problematically, the US’s resilience still appears to mostly come from the exceptionally large government budget deficit and household spending on services with little direct Canadian import content.

In the US industrial sector—where trade ties are much closer—manufacturing employment was down 0.7% year-over-year in May. Early data on job openings shows hiring demand continues to slow as aggressive tariffs on most of the world push costs higher, adding to uncertainty. Still, we do not expect a US recession this year, and that is good news for Canadian exporters who are still, in most cases, able to access the US market duty-free.

The Federal Reserve remained on the sidelines this month despite repeated demands for a rate cut by President Trump. In recent meetings, inflation concerns have precluded the FOMC from reducing rates, although the ‘dot-plot’ portends two rate cuts this year.

In a recent speech, BoC Governor Macklem held to the script, saying that inflation is a threat. He concluded, “My colleagues on the Governing Council and I agreed there could be a need for a further reduction in the policy interest rate if the effects of US tariffs and uncertainty continued to spread through the economy.” But, the latter is still a big “if” in the BoC’s mind. We’ll get two more CPI reports before the July decision (the May report is out next week), and they’ll probably need to see two good ones to consider a rate cut. The market is currently pricing in 25 bps of easing by the end of the year.

“If the current tariffs and counter-tariffs remain in place, historical experience suggests passing through about 75% of the costs of tariffs over roughly a year and a half,” he said. Macklem confessed that underlying inflation is “firmer” than expected, and “If the recent firmness in underlying inflation were to persist, it would be more difficult to cut the policy rate.”

That said, he admitted that the Bank’s preferred measures of inflation (trim and median) “may be exaggerating a little bit” to the upside. Macklem also underscored the negative structural shock Canada must deal with in an increasingly uncertain world. The takeaway from these comments and the recently released BoC minutes was that the Bank is biased in cutting rates again if inflation comes back down and unemployment keeps climbing. How much or how soon is anyone’s guess.

Housing activity continues to disappoint even as the May data showed a modest uptick in sales. New listings have surged, increasing the inventory of unsold homes, particularly condos in the GTA and, to a lesser degree, British Columbia.

The Bank of Canada expected to cut rates further before the end of the year – and with the occasional encouraging sign of progress in US-Canada trade talks – hopes are high that more buyers will step off the sidelines soon.

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem described Prime Minister Mark Carney and US President Donald Trump’s agreement to finalize a new trade and security deal within 30 days as “very welcome news.” However, he also flagged the continuing risk posed to the Canadian economy if tariffs remain in place.

We expect housing market confidence to gradually rebuild as tariff de-escalation lifts some of the uncertainty that hindered activity earlier this year. Still, a tepid labour market and rapidly falling population growth will likely continue hindering short-term market prospects.

Our growth forecasts have been moderately upgraded for the US and Canada. Changes to the Canadian outlook were primarily driven by an increasing likelihood that additional government fiscal deficit spending will add more significantly to growth tailwinds later this year and into 2026.

Canada is also the US’s largest exporter of steel and aluminum products. Existing excess domestic capacity in the US (often at much higher costs) could help, but won’t nearly be enough to fill the supply gap. That means the cost of additional levies will more likely be paid by US buyers than foreign exporters (like Canada).

Canada remains better positioned among major U.S. trade partners as it faces one of the lowest tariff rates thanks to CUSMA exemptions. The first round of trade data post-Liberation Day in April confirmed that nearly 90% of Canadian exports (by our count) continued to access the US market duty-free.

• We have upgraded our Q2 US gross domestic product forecast from 1% to 2.5% annually as we expect a surge in imports in Q1 (a statistical quirk) to reverse. Average growth in the first half of the year is likely a better gauge of economic activities, but it is still slowing. However, The slowing pace is more consistent with the gradual cooling in labour markets than with the beginning of a recession.

• The Canadian GDP growth forecast has been revised higher in 2026 by 0.3 percentage points from 1 to 1.3%. The new Liberal government has announced tax cuts and additional defence spending to meet NATO commitments this fiscal year. Expanded deficit spending will add to GDP growth later in 2025 and into 2026.

• Canadian unemployment rate projections have changed a little. The unemployment rate rose to 7% in May, but early plateauing in job openings suggests hiring conditions have stabilized after softening. It leaves us comfortable with limited further deterioration in the labour market and the unemployment rate to peak at 7.1% in Q3.

• Canadian population growth slowed substantially in Q1 2025, another dampener on housing.

 

Angela Calla is a mortgage renewal and debt elimination expert with over 20 years of industry experience. She is also a multi-award-winning mortgage professional. Since beginning as a mortgage broker in 2004, Angela has helped thousands of Canadians optimize their mortgage strategies, eliminate debt, and build wealth through real estate.

She is the best-selling author of The Mortgage Code, which equips readers with the tools to make informed financial decisions. Additionally, she is the host of Canada’s longest-running finance radio show on CKNW, where she simplifies mortgage advice and empowers listeners to take control of their financial futures.

Angela has been recognized as Business Leader of the Year (2020) by the Tri-Cities Chamber of Commerce and Entrepreneur of the Year (2019) by the City of Port Coquitlam. She is also a sought-after speaker and educator, delivering accredited training for real estate boards across Greater Vancouver.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

May Newsletter

General Angela Calla 7 May

Welcome to the May issue of my monthly newsletter!

Welcome to May! Hard to believe we’re already a third of the way into 2025. The Stanley Cup Playoffs are in full swing, and hockey fans across Canada are hoping this is the year the Cup finally comes home. Is your team still in the hunt?

While we wait to see how things play out on the ice, this month’s update covers mortgage penalties—what they are and how to avoid them—plus some great ways to boost your home’s value, no matter your budget.

Enjoy – and if you’re watching the playoffs, may your team go all the way!

Understanding Mortgage Penalties

Many homeowners—especially those without a mortgage broker—don’t fully understand mortgage penalties. And I get it! Financing a home can be overwhelming. But if you’re considering refinancing, selling, making a lump sum payment, or need a way out, read this first.

The most common mortgage penalty my clients encounter is a prepayment penalty. Did you know? Your lender doesn’t want their money back early! That’s because they earn guaranteed interest on the loan, helping them not only budget but also profit. Let’s go over the types of prepayment penalties:

Prepayment or Overpayment: If you make a lump sum payment on your mortgage or increase the regular payments by too much, you could be outside the terms of your mortgage agreement.

Transferring: If you move your mortgage to another lender before the end of your term, that is considered breaking the mortgage agreement you made.

Early Re-Payment: If you sell your home and pay off your lender with the proceeds, leaving you without a mortgage, that also breaks the agreement.

Breaking your mortgage for these—or any other reason—almost always results in financial penalties. The amount of the penalty that could be owed will be based on a few factors:

The amount of pre- or over-payment

Interest rates (existing and new)

The type of mortgage (open, closed) and the type of rate (fixed, variable)

How can you reduce or avoid prepayment fees?

The simplest answer is to wait until the end of your existing term to make changes. If that’s not possible, let’s review your circumstances:

Do you have a fixed or variable rate? If you have a variable rate and you’re breaking the mortgage in favour of a fixed option, first check to see if you can lock in a rate under your existing terms

Are you making a lump-sum payment? Review the terms of your mortgage to see what your annual prepayment allowance is. Most mortgages will let you make some fixed lump sum payments without any penalties

Penalties for non-payment

There’s also a flip side to penalties, which involves incurring a penalty because you’re making a late payment or missing payments.

You won’t be surprised that any payment received after the due date will incur a fee. Lenders will also report the missed payment to the credit bureau, which will impact your credit score. Before you miss a payment, the best thing you can do is to notify your lender (especially before it happens) and let them know. You can work together to defer a payment, skip a payment, or make other alternative arrangements.

If you’re with a lender that offers it, consider taking a ‘mortgage payment holiday’ and either skipping or deferring payments for a specific amount of time. Some lenders allow up to 3-6 months or possibly longer, depending on the circumstances.

If you have already missed a payment, you should make up that late or missed payment as soon as possible to avoid a quickly escalating situation.

When can penalties be worthwhile?

It is important to note that sometimes, paying a penalty can be worthwhile—especially if you’re locked into a higher-rate mortgage and the savings from breaking it and securing a lower rate outweigh the penalty costs. I can help you with this determination! I can help you determine if this makes financial sense for you.

An alternative to mortgage penalties

If you’re likely to break your mortgage agreement, consider an open mortgage. This is a great short-term solution for anyone who has an inheritance coming up, is planning a move out of town, or perhaps getting married (or divorced) and planning to combine (or separate) assets. You regularly pay the mortgage as long as you need it, but when you sell the property—no worries. This option does typically come with higher rates, but the benefit is that there are no penalties to pay it off at any time.

Whatever type of mortgage penalty you might be facing, my best recommendation is to talk to me for expert advice. Do this before you make any commitments so we can go over the fine print and you can understand what you’re getting into! I always take the time to do this with my clients, and I would be happy to assist you also.

Top Home Upgrades to Boost Your Property’s Value

“Spring has a way of bringing everything back to life, even a broken heart—or a dated, messy house.” ~ Willie Nelson (roughly interpreted)

Spring is typically a busy season for the housing market in Canada.

Whether you’re looking to sell or help your home bloom where it’s planted, these value-add ideas will be worth putting on your to-do list. We’ve sorted the chores by cost so you can consider your budget first and foremost.

Now, let’s get to work!

Under $100

Perhaps the best bang for your buck is to focus on the front of the house. A few inexpensive ideas are to paint the front railing, upgrade the mailbox, or change the numbers on your house. You’ll also get a lot of value from some yard maintenance, like raking, picking up the pinecones, cutting the grass, or planting a few flowers. Do you know why flowers are so popular? They have a lot of buds. ????

Looking at the inside of the house, something almost all of us could benefit from is decluttering. Go through kitchen drawers and cupboards, closets, and even review the décor in your home. If you still have one of those tall vases with some wheat coming out of it, it’s time to let that go. While you’re scrutinizing every nook and cranny, make sure all the lightbulbs work—and replace any that are burnt out.

Under $500

This budget can get you pretty far if you’re willing to DIY some projects. For example, you could get some paint and supplies and paint a whole new colour into your home. Start with a room or even just an accent wall to make the project more manageable. Another option is to put a firepit in your yard. Seeing and using the space in a new way might make you fall in love with the home all over again.

Another option is to tackle some small upgrades, like new knobs on the kitchen drawers, replacing a toilet seat with an upgraded bidet, or even installing a new light fixture that brightens up a room. Some door handles might need replacing or you may even want to add some curtains or a window treatment to the most used rooms in your home.

Under $1000

Perhaps the biggest suggestion in this category is a professional cleaner. Having someone come in and truly scrub the baseboards, inside the oven, and all those other sneaky little places will make your house look instantly better. Be sure to make a list of what needs the most attention and prioritize the tasks when you hire the cleaner. You could also get your carpets professionally cleaned – they’ll both look and feel much better.

Another idea is to add some tech into your home, like a smart thermostat, lighting, or a camera-based security system. These can be relatively easy to install on your own which is a great way to save some money.

Under $2500

We’re going to start with an interesting one here, which is to upgrade your front door to a steel door. Based on the numbers online, you’ll make back 188% of the value at resale, so think of it as an investment.

If you’ve got hardwood floors, getting them refinished will make a big difference aesthetically in your home. If that’s not a direction you want to go, you could also upgrade the space with a high-quality area rug.

Under $5000

The first suggestion is to upgrade your bedroom closets to custom designs. Make the space more functional for the clothes, shoes, and accessories you have. It will not only make getting dressed easier, but the entire space will be easier on the eyes.

The second suggestion is to install a new garage door. Whether it’s a newly automatic door or simply a better-looking replacement, a new garage door has been shown to recoup 194% of its cost at resale. And if resale isn’t the direction you’re going, you can still use the new door and have your property looking better quickly.

Unrestricted Budget

This next section is something you’re almost certainly better off hiring a professional to tackle. These are much more time and labour intensive, so be sure to research the cost and get quotes from professionals before launching into any of them. Here are a few suggestions:

Replace the roof. Speaking of roofs, do you know why the roof went to the doctor? It had shingles.
Redo the kitchen to modern design with new appliances like a gas stove, convection oven, double dishwasher, tech-heavy fridge, or other things you’ve had on your bucket list
Add an addition to the home with an office space
Replace windows with energy efficient ones and include window dressings
The bottom line here is that no matter how big or how small your budget is, there are plenty of things you can do to spruce up your home and either enjoy it more yourself or increase its value to a potential buyer.

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper

President Trump’s second term, now just over 90 days long, has wreaked chaos worldwide. A selloff in US assets deepened as President Donald Trump stepped up criticism of Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, on social media, with stocks, the dollar and longer-dated Treasuries sliding amid concerns about the Federal Reserve’s future independence.

Trump’s assurances that tariff talks were progressing did little to stop the rout. Wealth has been obliterated as stocks have sold off everywhere, and the US dollar has weakened to a 15-month low. The benchmark 10-year fell, with the yield close to 4.4%. As investors turned away from US securities, haven assets climbed. Gold jumped to another record, above $3,400 an ounce, while the Swiss franc gained more than 1% against the dollar.

The weakness also spread to the US credit market. In derivatives, the cost of protecting a basket of high-grade credit securities against default rose to the highest over a week. Three investment-grade companies looked at selling bonds on Monday.

The US president took to Truth Social, escalating his attack on the Fed chair, insisting there was “virtually” no inflation and it was time for “preemptive cuts.” The last reading of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge remains above the central bank’s target. There will be a new readout next week.

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said on Friday that Trump is studying whether he can fire Powell. The comments raised new questions about whether the Fed can maintain its longstanding independence, with the president increasingly venting dissatisfaction in harsh terms that the central bank hasn’t moved faster to lower interest rates.

“Were Powell to be fired, the initial reaction would be a huge injection of volatility into financial markets and the most dramatic rush to the exit from US assets possible,” said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone. “Not only is the independence of the Fed clearly under threat, but the prospect of de-dollarisation and a move away from US hegemony is increasingly realistic.”

Hedge fund elites have echoed this concern. According to people present, Paul Singer, founder of Elliott Investment Management, warned recently at a private event in Abu Dhabi that the US dollar might lose its reserve currency status.

Rebuking the Fed risks politicizing US monetary policy in a way that markets find deeply unsettling.

“Frankly, firing Powell stretches belief,” said Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. “If the credibility of the Fed is called into question, it could severely erode confidence in the dollar.”

Fed Chicago President Austan Goolsbee warned against efforts to curtail the central bank’s independence. “There’s virtual unanimity among economists that monetary independence from political interference — that the Fed or any central bank be able to do the job needs to do — is essential,” Goolsbee said on CBS’s Face the Nation on Sunday.

Legal scholars say that a president can’t dismiss a Fed chair easily, and Powell has previously said he wouldn’t resign if asked by Trump.

Trade War

Trump’s tariff offensive also weighed a heavy burden on markets amid worries about a financial slump.

“The global economy is buffeted by a US war on trade, which we believe generates a large enough economic shock to threaten the life of the US and global expansion,” wrote Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slid 0.7% on Monday—every Group-of-10 currency gained against the greenback, including the Canadian dollar. The yen jump weighed on stock indexes in Japan, pushing the Nikkei 225 down 1.3%.

The yen, euro and Swiss franc rallied. WTI crude fell more than 2% to below $64 a barrel. This and eliminating the consumer carbon tax should keep April inflation close to the target level.

As a sign that investors are rotating investments away from the US, Deutsche Bank AG said that Chinese clients had reduced some of their Treasury holdings in favour of European debt. European high-quality bonds, Japanese government bonds and gold are likely to be the potential choices for investors as alternatives to Treasuries.

With this backdrop, the Canadian economy has slowed precipitously. A Canadian recession likely began in the second quarter as consumer and business confidence plunged to record lows. While the details of the imposed levies are uncertain, there is no question that layoffs in the most vulnerable sectors, such as auto manufacturing, are just the tip of the iceberg. Other highly vulnerable sectors include agriculture, mining and minerals, energy, and lumber.

Once the Canadian election is behind us, the most critical next step would be renegotiating the USMCA—the free trade agreement initially negotiated by the first Trump administration.

Tariff turmoil and rising longer-term interest rates have sideswiped Canada’s housing markets, especially in Toronto and Vancouver, where overbuilding and rising new listings have led to a marked decline in the sales-to-new-listings ratio. Home prices are soft, and sellers are motivated.

While the Bank of Canada moved to the sidelines at the April 16 meeting, we believe incoming data will confirm that a recession is imminent. Although trade restrictions put upward pressure on prices, the central bank will no doubt respond if one-shot price hikes feed into an inflationary cycle.

Because Canada is far more interest rate sensitive and depends critically on trade with the US, our economic reaction is likely to be the canary in the coal mine. The Bank of Canada will undoubtedly respond to recessionary pressure by decreasing the overnight policy rate to 2.0%-to-2.25% in the next few months. This should help to spur housing activity where pent-up demand for housing is growing.

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

3 Smart Money Moves for Today’s Economy – As Heard on Vancouver Consumer on CKNW

General Angela Calla 28 Apr

I had the pleasure of joining Vancouver Consumer on CKNW to share some key strategies to help Canadians thrive financially in today’s economy. Over three segments, we explored actionable steps everyone can take to build a stronger financial future.

Here’s a quick recap:

Review Your Mortgage and Debt Strategy
With rates and lending rules constantly changing, reviewing your mortgage annually is critical. Consolidating high-interest debt into your mortgage can save hundreds to thousands of dollars each month — freeing up cash flow and improving your financial health.
Make Your Money Work for You
Even small, consistent investments can grow significantly over time. Whether it’s maximizing RRSPs, TFSAs, or employer-matching programs, it’s important to have a plan that aligns with your goals. Every dollar saved today multiplies your financial security tomorrow.
Plan Ahead for Renewals and Life Changes
Don’t wait until the last minute to plan for your mortgage renewal or a major life change. A proactive approach helps you access the best options and avoid costly penalties or missed opportunities.

You can read a full breakdown of these tips here:

3 Smart Money Moves

Catch the full conversation on the podcast here:

Listen on Spotify

Have questions or want a personalized review?

Reach out to the Angela Calla Mortgage Team:

Email: callateam@countoncalla.ca

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Better than expected Canadian inflation in March may not be enough to trigger another BoC rate cut

General Angela Calla 16 Apr

Weaker Than Expected Inflation May Not Be Enough to Trigger Another Bank of Canada Rate Cut
Canadian consumer prices rose 0.3% in March (or remained flat when seasonally adjusted), which was lower than expected, reducing the annual inflation rate by 0.3 percentage points to 2.3%. This decrease in headline inflation followed the complete removal of the GST holiday in March.

There was a significant drop in travel tour prices and airfares compared to the previous year, as Canadians reduced their travel to the U.S. during peak times. Additionally, gasoline prices fell by a modest 1.8%, with further declines expected in April, likely bringing the headline inflation rate below 2%.

The core measures largely met expectations last month, with the trimmed rate decreasing moderately to 2.8% and the median rate holding steady at 2.9% year-over-year. Although these annual numbers remain high, the monthly results were more encouraging, increasing by just 0.1% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Moreover, their three-month trend eased to below 3%.

Prices excluding food and energy dipped slightly, reducing the traditional measure of core inflation to 2.4% from 2.9%. Travel tour costs dropped 8% month-over-month (or 4.7% year-over-year), and airfares fell 12% year-over-year. Cellphone service costs also decreased by 7% year-over-year. March saw the beginning of some Canadian counter-tariffs, leading to price increases in areas like sporting equipment, which rose 12.2% year-over-year. However, declines in travel and gasoline costs overshadowed these price upticks.

Shelter costs also showed signs of easing—rents slowed to 5.1% year-over-year from 5.8%, and mortgage interest costs reduced to 7.9% from 9.0%.

Bottom Line

This report will reinforce the Bank of Canada’s cautious stance on easing to mitigate the impact of tariffs. Canada experienced a break in rising inflation in March due to lower travel costs. The inflation impact of the trade war differs for Canada compared to the U.S., as Canadian tariffs are lighter, and the domestic economy is under more significant pressure.

The strengthening Canadian dollar helps reduce import prices, addressing one of the Bank of Canada’s inflation concerns. Gasoline prices fell sharply on April 1 following the removal of the carbon tax. They continued to decline due to dropping global oil prices, which may lead to a significant decrease in headline inflation next month. Despite these conditions potentially signalling a favourable situation for the BoC to cut rates, core inflation measures are still close to 3%, and ongoing trade war dynamics complicate policymaking decisions.

The odds of a ninth rate cut tomorrow are about even. Recent reports suggest that business and consumer confidence has deteriorated and that spending is slowing. Nevertheless, the central bank remains concerned about the inflationary impact of tariffs.

Even if the Bank does not cut rates in April, we will likely see three more 25-basis-point cuts this year, bringing the overnight rate down to 2.0%—300 bps lower than its peak last year.

Article courtesy of Dr. Sherry Cooper – Chief Economist at DLC

 

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

February 2025 Newsletter

General Angela Calla 1 Apr

Welcome to the February issue of my monthly newsletter!

This month, I have all the details for you around second mortgages and understanding if they are right for you! Plus, scroll down for some spring-cleaning tips as we start to shake off the winter dust!

Understanding Second Mortgages: Are They Right for You?

One of the biggest benefits to purchasing your own home is the ability to build equity in your property. This equity can come in handy down the line for refinancing, renovations, or taking out additional loans – such as a second mortgage.

A second mortgage refers to an additional or secondary loan taken out on a property for which you already have a mortgage. Some advantages include the ability to access a large loan sum, better interest rates than a credit card and the ability to use the funds how you see fit. However, keep in mind interest rates are typically higher on a second mortgage versus refinancing and can add additional cash flow tension to your monthly bills. Talk to a mortgage professional today to determine if this is the best option for you!

What is a second mortgage?

First things first, a second mortgage refers to an additional or secondary loan taken out on a property for which you already have a mortgage. This is not the same as purchasing a second home or property and taking out a separate mortgage for that. A second mortgage is a very different product from a traditional mortgage as you are using your existing home equity to qualify for the loan and put up in case of default. Similar to a traditional mortgage, a second mortgage will also come with its own interest rate, monthly payments, set terms, closing costs and more.

Second mortgages versus refinancing

As both refinancing your existing mortgage and taking out a second mortgage can take advantage of existing home equity, it is a good idea to look at the differences between them.

Firstly, a refinance is typically only done when you’re at the end of your current mortgage term so as to avoid any penalties with refinancing the mortgage. The purpose of refinancing is often to take advantage of a lower interest rate, change your mortgage terms or, in some cases, borrow against your home equity.

When you get a second mortgage, you are able to borrow a lump sum against the equity in your current home and can use that money for whatever purpose you see fit. You can even choose to borrow in installments through a credit line and refinance your second mortgage in the future.

Some key things to note when looking at a second mortgage or refinancing:

  • If you have a favorable interest rate on your first mortgage, a second mortgage allows you to keep the lower rate on your primary loan, resulting in a lower blended rate.
  • Refinancing resets the amortization schedule, which could extend the loan term. A second mortgage leaves the existing term intact, helping you stay on track with your overall financial goals.
  • Second mortgages often come with more flexible terms, such as interest-only payments, fully open, or shorter term, which can suit your immediate needs.

What are the advantages of a second mortgage?

There are several advantages when it comes to taking out a second mortgage, including:

  • Homeowners can access a significant portion of their home equity (typically 80%-85% LTV).
  • Better interest rate than a credit card as they are a ‘secured’ form of debt.
  • You can use the money however you see fit without any caveats.
  • Allows you to access your home equity without breaking your existing mortgage and incurring penalty fees.

What are the disadvantages of a second mortgage?

As always, when it comes to taking out an additional loan, there are a few things to consider:

  • Interest rates tend to be higher on a second mortgage than refinancing your mortgage.
  • Additional financial pressure from carrying a second loan and another set of monthly bills.

Before looking into any additional loans, such as a secondary mortgage (or even refinancing), be sure to reach out to me! Regardless of why you are considering a second mortgage, it is a good idea to get a review of your current financial situation and determine if this is the best solution before proceeding.

10 Smart Spring-Cleaning Tips to Revitalize Your Home

As the days grow longer and the sun shines brighter, it’s the perfect time to refresh your home with a thorough Spring clean! A clean, organized space can help you feel more energized and ready to embrace the season ahead.

 

Here are some tips to make your Spring cleaning both efficient and enjoyable

  1. Create a Playlist: Make cleaning fun by curating a playlist of your favorite upbeat songs. Music not only makes the time fly but can also turn your cleaning routine into an enjoyable activity. Dance while you dust and sing while you sweep—your home will thank you!
  2. Clean One Room at a Time: A clean home doesn’t happen overnight, so avoid feeling overwhelmed by tackling one room at a time. Start small, such as with bathrooms or closets, and work your way up to larger spaces like the kitchen or living room. Alternatively, dedicate one or two rooms per weekend, and by the time May rolls around, your home will sparkle!
  3. Declutter as You Go: Spring cleaning isn’t just about scrubbing and polishing—it’s also the ideal time to declutter. Sort through closets, cupboards, and drawers, and separate items into “keep,” “donate,” and “discard” piles. Haven’t used that appliance or worn that sweater in over a year? It’s time to let it go. Clearing out the clutter not only makes cleaning easier but also creates a more organized and calming space.
  4. Go Green: Keep your cleaning eco-friendly by opting for natural solutions. Vinegar and baking soda are versatile and effective for a variety of tasks, from cleaning countertops to unclogging drains. A steam cleaner can also be a fantastic tool for deep-cleaning floors, appliances, and even outdoor spaces without the need for harsh chemicals. Choose sustainable products to keep your home fresh and the environment happy.
  5. Work From Top to Bottom: When cleaning, always start high and work your way down. Dust light fixtures, ceiling fans, and shelves first to avoid re-cleaning surfaces below. This method ensures maximum efficiency and minimizes extra work!
  6. Don’t Forget Hidden Spaces: Pay attention to often-overlooked areas like baseboards, window tracks, and behind large furniture. Use a vacuum attachment to get into tight corners, and wipe down walls and doorframes for a truly comprehensive clean.
  7. Freshen Up the Fridge & Freezer: Spring is the perfect time to clean out your fridge and freezer. Empty the contents, toss expired items, and clean the interior surfaces with a mixture of water and mild soap or vinegar. If defrosting is needed, plan ahead to minimize food waste. Restocking a fresh, clean fridge feels fantastic and can even inspire healthier eating habits!
  8. Revitalize Air Quality: Spring allergens can wreak havoc on your sinuses, but replacing your HVAC and furnace filters can help. Upgrade to a higher-quality filter for added protection against allergens, chemicals, and odors. Consider adding an air purifier for an extra boost to your home’s air quality.
  9. Wash Fabrics & Upholstery: Take time to wash or vacuum curtains, upholstery, and throw pillows, as they can harbor dust and allergens. Rotate or clean your mattress, and swap out heavy winter bedding for lighter, seasonal options. Fresh linens make a big difference in creating a rejuvenated space.
  10. Tidy Outdoor Areas: Spring cleaning isn’t limited to the indoors! Sweep porches, patios, and decks, and clean outdoor furniture. If you have a garden, take this opportunity to prepare for planting by clearing debris and cleaning tools. A fresh outdoor space is the perfect complement to your revitalized home.

Embrace these tips, and your Spring clean will leave your home feeling fresh, organized, and ready for the new season!

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper

Wall Street reacted positively to Trump’s initial tariff backpedalling, pushing US equity futures higher. This is a sign that he may pursue a less protectionist approach; for now, it is a boon for multinational companies that rely on cross-border commerce, giving them time to adjust pricing and mitigate any impact on profit margins.

The US dollar, however, slumped, albeit briefly. Canada’s dollar has traded markedly below the US dollar for years. And, although we promised to tighten our border restrictions, the US’s illegal immigration problems have little to do with Canada.

 

The Bank of Canada’s fourth-quarter consumer expectations survey reveals that despite recession concerns, 22.4% of respondents see a greater than 50% chance of moving to a new primary residence within the next year—up from 21.1% in the previous quarter.

 

Similarly, 13.5% of respondents plan to sell their home within the next year, up from 11.4% in Q3. The results also show increased interest from renters, with 19.9% considering a home purchase in the next 12 months, compared to 16.9% last quarter.

 

The Bank of Canada attributes the rise in homebuying intentions to expectations of further interest rate cuts in 2025.

 

“Survey results show that these home buying intentions are supported by consumers seeing and expecting easier credit conditions,” the report notes.

 

However, it also cautions that the timing of home purchases remains uncertain for many: “…those planning to buy a home over the next 12 months said they anticipate around a 50% probability of actually carrying through with those plans.”

 

The Q4 survey revealed that inflation expectations have primarily returned to historical norms. Consumers’ inflation expectations for food and gas stayed steady in the fourth quarter, while expectations for rent eased. However, they still anticipate rent will rise faster than pre-pandemic levels.

 

As a result of the improving inflation outlook, consumers expressed strong intentions to increase spending on essentials and housing over the next year. For the first time since 2021, they anticipate spending will outpace price increases.

 

While the new administration in Washington poses considerable uncertainty for the Canadian economy, the odds are that the Bank of Canada will successfully master a noninflationary rebound in economic activity in 2026.

 

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Canadian CPI Inflation Edged Upward in January Owing To Rising Energy Prices

General Angela Calla 24 Mar

Canadian Inflation Edged Upward to 1.9% Y/Y in January

 

In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.9% year over year (y/y), up from 1.8% in December. This rise was primarily due to an uptick in energy prices. Excluding gasoline, the CPI increased by 1.7% in January, down from 1.8% in December.

Higher energy prices, particularly gasoline and natural gas were the main contributors to this acceleration. However, these increases were somewhat countered by continued downward pressure on prices for items affected by the goods and services tax (GST)/harmonized sales tax (HST) break implemented in December. Notably, food prices fell by 0.6% year-over-year in January, marking the first annual decline since May 2017. This decrease was primarily driven by a significant drop in prices for food purchased from restaurants, which fell by 5.1%.

The CPI rose by 0.1% in January, compared to a 0.4% decline in December.

Energy prices rose 5.3% in January y/y, following a 1.0% increase in December. Specifically, gas prices increased 8.6% yearly in January, up from 3.5% in December. In Manitoba, gas prices rose by 25.9% due to the reintroduction of a provincial gas tax at a lower rate after its temporary suspension from January to December 2024.

Additionally, prices for new passenger vehicles increased by 2.3% year-over-year in January, compared to a 0.9% increase in December. In contrast, prices for used vehicles continued to decline in January, decreasing by 3.4%, although slower than the 4.1% decline observed in December. This marks the 13th consecutive month of year-over-year price decreases for used vehicles.
In January 2025, prices for food purchased from restaurants decreased by 5.1%. This decline was over three times greater than the previous record drop of 1.6% observed in December 2024.

Canadians also experienced lower prices for alcoholic beverages purchased from stores, which fell by 3.6% in January 2025 compared to January of the previous year, following a decrease of 1.3% in December.

Additionally, prices for toys, games (excluding video games), and hobby supplies dropped by 6.8% year over year in January after a decline of 7.2% in December.

Excluding indirect tax changes, inflation notably increased to 2.6% from 2.2% the prior month and a recent low of 1.5% last September. It was a similar story for core inflation—BoC’s main measures rose 0.2% m/m in adjusted terms, lifting both to 2.7% y/y (from 2.5% for trim and 2.6% for median). Over the past three months, both have risen at just over a 3% annualized pace, or just a touch above the BoC’s comfort zone. The Bank’s old CPIX measure of core, which removes eight volatile items and sales taxes, perked up to a 2.1% y/y pace but remains mild. Similarly, the breadth of prices rising above 3% is close to normal.

It’s a little less flashy, but more importantly, shelter inflation continues to grind down gradually. Rents posted their first monthly decline in more than two years (-0.1%), calming the annual increase to 6.3% (from 7.1% last month and a peak of 9% last spring). Mortgage interest costs eased to 10.2% y/y from 11.7% in December and the plus-30% pace in 2023. Offsetting those milder trends were big pick-ups in many utility charges.
Bottom Line

Traders in overnight swaps have reduced their expectations for a quarter-percentage point rate cut by the Bank of Canada at its next meeting on March 12, lowering the odds to just over one-third, down from a nearly even chance last week.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has successfully brought inflation under control. However, an impending tariff war between the U.S. and Canada poses a new threat to his efforts to maintain price stability.

Policymakers eased up on the pace of rate cuts in January after aggressively lowering borrowing costs last year, but they remain uncertain about the future direction. U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated plans to impose tariffs of up to 25% on Canadian goods in March, while Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government has promised to retaliate. A tariff war would likely compel the central bank to adjust its rate-cutting strategy to prepare the economy for the potential impact of tariffs on consumer prices.

The central bank will next determine the benchmark overnight rate on March 12. Economists are divided into two viewpoints: some anticipate further rate cuts, while others expect the bank to pause amid increasing uncertainties. Governor Tiff Macklem has expressed a desire to bolster economic growth and expects inflation to remain close to the 2% target in the coming months, influenced by fluctuations in global energy prices. Currently, the odds favor another 25 basis points rate cut in March.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Canadian GDP Growth Accelerated in Q4 to 2.6% Compared to an Upwardly Revised 2.2% in Q3

General Angela Calla 24 Mar

Canada Finished 2024 on a Stronger Note, But Tariffs Remain a Concern

This morning, Statistics Canada released the GDP data for the final quarter of last year, showing a stronger-than-expected increase in household final consumption spending, exports, and business investment. However, drawdowns of business inventories and higher imports tempered the overall growth.

In Q4, the Canadian economy accelerated, with real GDP growth reaching a solid 2.6% annualized, which was well above consensus and the Bank of Canada’s latest forecast. The growth was broad-based, led by a 5.6% increase in consumer spending. Consumer spending climbed 3.6% annually for three of the four quarters in 2024, supported by rate cuts in the second half of the year. Year-over-year, consumer outlays rose by 3.6%, marking the best pace since 2018 (excluding the pandemic). Although the tax holiday had a positive impact, it took effect very late in the quarter, suggesting that momentum was already strong before that. The housing sector also showed solid growth, increasing by 16.7%, the best gain in nearly four years, driven by a significant rise in resale activity. Business investment also contributed positively, rising by 8% due to investment in machinery and equipment.

However, inventories were a significant drag on growth, subtracting 3.3 percentage points, while net exports added 0.6 percentage points. Final domestic demand growth was recorded at 5.6%, the best quarter since 2017, excluding the pandemic. Notably, the growth figures for Q2 and Q3 were revised upward: Q2 is now at 2.8% (previously 2.2%), and Q3 is now at 2.2% (previously 1.0%).

December’s GDP came in slightly below expectations at +0.2%. Retail sales significantly contributed to this gain, increasing by 2.6% due to the tax holiday, while utilities also experienced a notable increase of 4.7% owing to more typical winter weather. The January flash estimate showed a solid rise of +0.3%, likely reflecting activity that was front-loaded ahead of potential tariffs. Nonetheless, this indicates a promising start to Q1 and 2025.

Bottom Line

The Canadian economy demonstrated strong momentum in the latter half of 2024, driven by aggressive rate cuts from the Bank of Canada that stimulated economic activity. The growth rate significantly exceeded the central bank’s forecast, coming in at 2.6% compared to the expected 1.8%. Overall growth for 2024 was also better than anticipated, at 1.5% versus the forecasted 1.3%. However, much of this growth occurred before the escalation of tariff threats.

This data may support the central bank’s decision to pause its easing cycle at the upcoming meeting on March 12. However, looming tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump, including a 10% tariff on Canadian energy and a 25% tariff on all other goods set to take effect on Tuesday, could complicate the bank’s decision-making.

The threat of tariffs may also account for the muted market reaction to the positive GDP report, which coincided with a U.S. report showing that the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge rose at a mild pace while consumer spending declined. On the day, Canadian government two-year bond yields fell by less than one basis point to 2.619% as of 9:10 a.m. in Ottawa, while the Canadian dollar slipped slightly, down less than 0.1% to C$1.4426 per U.S. dollar. Traders in overnight swaps assessed the odds of a rate cut on March 12 at about 43%, compared to a near 50% chance just a day earlier.

Article courtesy of Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist, DLC

 

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Canadian Inflation Jumped to 2.6% y/y in February As GST Tax Holiday Ended

General Angela Calla 21 Mar

Canadian Inflation Surged to 2.6% in February, Much Stronger Than Expected

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.6% year-over-year (y/y) in February, following an increase of 1.9% in January. With the federal tax break ending on February 15, the GST and HST were reapplied to eligible products. This put upward pressure on consumer prices for those items, as taxes paid by consumers are included in the CPI.

While the second straight acceleration in the headline number was expected, the pace of price gains may still surprise Bank of Canada policymakers, who cut interest rates for the seventh straight meeting. Donald Trump’s tariff threats hamper business and consumer spending. But assuming the federal sales tax break hadn’t been in place, Canadian inflation would have jumped even higher to 3% in February. This is at the upper bound of the bank’s target range, from 2.7% a month earlier. Canadian inflation has not been at or above 3% since the end of 2023.

Faster price growth was broad-based in February, the end of the goods and services tax (GST)/harmonized sales tax (HST) break through the month contributed notable upward pressure to prices for eligible products. Slower growth for gasoline prices (+5.1%) moderated the all-items CPI acceleration.

The CPI rose 1.1% m/m in February and 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis.  However, the increase exceeded the tax impact as seasonally-adjusted CPI excluding the tax impact was +0.4%. And, in case you want to pin it on food & energy, CPI excluding food, energy & taxes was +0.3%.

Gains were across the board, with the sectors impacted by the tax change seeing the most significant increase: recreation +3.4%, food +1.9%, clothing +1.6%, and alcohol +1.5% more to come next month, with the tax holiday only ending in mid-February. The headline inflation figures are subject to as much noise as we’ve seen in decades. They are poised to continue for at least another couple of months, making it very challenging to interpret the inflation data.

As a result, prices for food purchased from restaurants declined at a slower pace year over year in February (-1.4%) compared with January (-5.1%). Restaurant food prices contributed the most to the acceleration in the all-items CPI in February.

Similarly, on a yearly basis, alcoholic beverages purchased from stores declined 1.4% in February, following a 3.6% decline in January.

On a year-over-year basis, gasoline prices decelerated, with a 5.1% increase in February following an 8.6% gain in January. Prices rose less month over month in February 2025 compared with February 2024, when higher global crude oil prices pushed up gasoline prices, leading to slower year-over-year price growth in February 2025.

Month over month, gasoline prices rose 0.6% in February. This increase was primarily related to higher refining costs amid planned refinery maintenance across North America. This offset lower crude oil prices, mainly due to increased American supply and tariff threats, contributing to slowing global growth concerns.

One notable exception to the broad-based strength was shelter, rising “just” 0.2%. That’s the smallest gain in five months, trimming the yearly pace to 4.2%, the slowest since 2021, with more downside to come. Mortgage interest costs rose a modest 0.2% for a second straight month, slicing it to +9% y/y, ending a 2½-year run of double-digit increases.

Not surprisingly, the core inflation metrics were firm as well. CPI-Trim and Median both rose 0.3% m/m and 2.9% y/y. The 3- and 6-month annualized rates are all above 3% as well, pointing to ongoing stickiness. The breadth of inflation, which has been a focus for the Bank of Canada, also worsened with the share of items rising 3%+ increasing modestly. None of this is encouraging news for policymakers.

Bottom Line

This report will reinforce the Bank of Canada’s cautious stance on easing to mitigate the impact of tariffs. Notably, the upcoming end of the carbon tax will cause inflation to drop sharply in April. However, March may see an increase in inflation as the effects of the tax holiday begin to reverse. There is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding inflation, which complicates the job of policymakers. We will see what April 2 brings regarding additional tariffs.

If the economic outlook did not worsen, the Bank of Canada might consider pausing after cutting rates at seven consecutive meetings. However, the Canadian economy will likely slow significantly in the coming months.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said last week the bank would “”roceed carefully””amid the tariff war. Economists are still awaiting more clarity on tariffs before firming up their expectations for the next rate decision on April 16, when policymakers will also update their forecasts. Right now, traders are betting that the BoC will hold rates steady in April, but a lot can and will happen before then.

Article courtesy of Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

 

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

Click here to view the latest news on our blog. 

Bank of Canada Cuts Policy Rate By 25 BPs

General Angela Calla 18 Mar

The Bank of Canada (BoC) reduced the overnight rate by 25 basis points this morning, bringing the policy rate down to 2.75%, within the neutral range of 2.25%—2.75%. Tariff tremors have already led to a decline in consumer confidence and spending, a weakening labour market, and a decline in business investment. Compound that with falling population growth, and you see why the Governing Council took the overnight rate down again even though they state that monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war.

Trade wars lead to higher prices and slower growth. The rise in prices causes consumers to tighten their belts, concerned about the impact of tariffs on their income and investments. Today, there is a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum exports to the US. This impacts Canada the most as it supplies roughly 80% of US aluminum demand. The EU introduced retaliatory tariffs on US goods in response. Canada added to its retaliation. Recent data suggest the US economy is slowing.

Monetary policy remains restrictive as the real overnight rate (2.75% minus the headline inflation rate) is 85 bps, up from the historical average of 60 bps. Five-year Government of Canada bond yields increased on the news to 2.65% compared to 4.05% in the US. The Federal Reserve is not expected to cut rates when it meets again this month.

Despite relatively strong GDP growth in Canada in the second half of last year, home sales and hiring began to slow in late January due to tariff threats, and more tariffs are yet to come. On March 20, China is expected to impose 100% retaliatory tariffs on Canadian canola oil, while pork and seafood will face a 25% levy. The Chinese tariffs are a push-back against Canada for imposing a 100% levy on electric cars from China and  25% on steel and aluminum.

On April 2, the US announced it will impose reciprocal tariffs on nations that have levied tariffs on US goods. President Trump has also said he is considering imposing retaliatory tariffs on Canadian dairy and lumber.

“We’re now facing a new crisis. The economic impact could be severe depending on the extent and duration of new US tariffs,” Macklem said in his prepared remarks.

Macklem called the uncertainty of the tariff dispute “pervasive” and said that it was “already causing harm.” Officials said the “continuously changing” US tariff threat was hitting consumers’ spending intentions and limiting businesses’ plans to hire and invest.

At the same time, Macklem said the bank “will proceed carefully with any further changes” to borrowing costs, and officials would “need to assess both the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs and the downward pressures from weaker demand.”

Bottom Line

These are uncertain times. The US is determined to impose worldwide tariffs, disproportionately hitting Canada, Mexico, and China, the US’s top trading partners. This is a misguided neo-Mercantilist policy. Mercantilism assumes that the global economic pie is fixed, so if one country prospers, another must fail. This idea of a zero-sum game was debunked in the 18th century by Adam Smith and others who showed that if countries have a competitive advantage in various products and services, all are better off by producing and trading those products with the rest of the world. It is not a zero-sum game. The economic pie grows with trade. This was the idea behind globalization and the USMCA free trade agreement.

Given Canada’s vulnerability to tariffs, the economy will suffer more than the US, which has a relatively closed economy (where exports are a small proportion of GDP). Prices will rise depending on the duration and size of the coming tariffs, but mitigating the inflation will be the weakness in economic activity. Stagflation, a buzz-word in the 1970s, is back in the lexicon. We expect the BoC to continue cutting the policy rate in 25-bps increments until it reaches 2.25% this June, triggering a rebound in home sales. Layoffs and spending cuts will dampen sentiment, but lower interest rates will bring buyers off the sidelines.

Article courtesy of Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

 

Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.

Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.

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