Mortgage Rates to Drop in 2024
The biggest factor our experts use to make housing market predictions for 2024 in Canada will be interest rates. The Bank of Canada has been raising interest rates since March 2022. These higher rates have had a widespread impact across Canada. Some effects have been positive (like lowering inflation), and some have been negative (like making mortgages more expensive).
That said, the high interest rates we’re seeing going into 2024 won’t be around forever. Mortgage interest rates are directly influenced by the Bank of Canada’s policy interest rate. So we asked mortgage broker and author of The Mortgage Code, Angela Calla, whether the Bank of Canada will hike rates in 2024, lower them, or hold them steady.
Calla believes that as long as inflation continues to trend close to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target rate, Canadians should expect mortgage rates to fall in mid-2024. But, since no one can accurately predict what will happen, it’s best to take a cautious approach. “In terms of time and how much,” Calla says, “plan for the worst and hope for the best.”
How Will 2024 Rates Affect My Mortgage?
Many borrowers took advantage of low mortgage rates in the early 2020s, buying a home when money was cheap and locking in their rate for several years. Now that rates have risen from those low levels (the lowest discounted rate was 1.38% in January 2021; today, the lowest rate is 5.19%), many Canadians will renew their mortgages at higher rates with higher monthly payments.
Between 2024 and 2025, 2.2 million Canadians are expected to renew their mortgages. That’s almost half of all mortgage holders. These renewals will happen at higher rates, which could increase mortgage payments between 30 to 40%.To help prepare for these rising costs, Calla recommends that you research and shop around for the best mortgage rate instead of signing your lender’s first renewal offer. “This will ensure you gain the lowest cost of borrowing and protect your credit score.”
Suppose you’re due to renew your mortgage in 2024 and find yourself unable to cope with the higher payments. In that case, you have options, like adding rental income, extending your amortization, or considering a reverse mortgage.
Should You Choose a Fixed or Variable Rate in 2024?
Choosing a fixed or variable-rate mortgage is a personal choice, and depends on your goals and risk tolerance. Fixed-rate mortgages have the benefit of stability. The rate doesn’t change throughout the term, and you’ll always pay the same amount each month. But they are more expensive to break if you plan to sell your home before your term ends.
“Breaking such a mortgage for market or lifestyle changes can incur an interest rate differential (IRD) penalty,” says Calla. This penalty can be in the tens of thousands of dollars for some mortgages. So, it’s an essential consideration if you plan to sell your home before your mortgage term ends.
Variable-rate mortgages, on the other hand, are more flexible. That said, your mortgage rate is subject to change. That means your principal payment and, in some cases, the entire monthly payment itself could change.
“When Canadians are at the crossroads of choosing between a fixed or variable-rate mortgage, a critical step is to weigh the risks and benefits of each option,” Calla says. If you aren’t sure, talking to a mortgage specialist is an excellent first step.
The Breakdown: Mortgage rates may fall in 2024. If your mortgage is renewing in 2024, prepare to renew at higher rates. Shop for the best rate and terms with a mortgage broker.
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Angela Calla is an 19-year award-winning woman of influence which sets her apart from the rest. Alongside her team, Angela passionately assists mortgage holders in acquiring the best possible mortgage. Through her presence on “The Mortgage Show” and through her best-selling book “The Mortgage Code“, Angela educates prospective home buyers by providing vital information on mortgages. In light of this, her success awarded her with the 2020Business Leader of the Year Award.
Angela is a frequent go-to source for media and publishers across the country. For media interviews, speaking inquiries, or personal mortgage assistance, please contact Angela at hello@countoncalla.ca or at 604-802-3983.
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